If a market does not have young people joining, then collapse is inevitable.

The last market that has collapsed is the philately market. The core of the popularity of philately in the 1980s was that people expected stamps to increase in price and they could make money by buying them.

However, after the development of communication technology, fewer and fewer people wrote letters. At the same time, China Post over-issued too many stamps, causing stamps to depreciate rapidly. In 1997, the official number of stamp collectors was 17 million, but now some people estimate that there are only a few hundred thousand left. The stamps in the hands of stamp collectors not only have no premium, but also have to be discounted, almost becoming waste paper.

Another market that is collapsing is Moutai. Moutai was first popular in the consumption of the three public officials. After the state rectification, it turned to social consumption. But the problem now is that young people no longer drink Moutai. The ex-factory retail price of Moutai is 1,499 yuan, but if you want to buy it, you have to pay 2,000-3,000 yuan. The basis for supporting such a high premium is no longer there. Recently, even the official Moutai agency was unable to identify fake Moutai liquor.

The above cases show a common law of change: first, the market is hot, and early entrants earn a lot of money, forming a money-making case; then, after several rounds of dissemination, a large number of newcomers pour in, supply exceeds demand, and the premium is raised; then the supply is accelerated, but problems arise (over-issuance, counterfeiting), forming a bubble that continues to rise, waiting for the next wave of people to take over; then young people refuse to take over, and the market collapses.

When we see a cyclical change in the market, we will get a more accurate understanding of the era we have experienced.

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