Tonight's US May core PCE data is in line with expectations. Many people think it is a positive, but I think it can only be considered a negative because the data needs to be interpreted by the market.
Giving you enough room to interpret yourself and then release expectations for interest rate cuts, isn't this the expectation management content that the Fed often does?
However, although the core PCE has little impact at present, it is a fact that overall inflation in May has decreased. So whether inflation in June can be reduced, whether the downgrade will remain strong and exceed the first quarter or cool down, all these need data to support.
The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June, which will be released at 22:00, may provide the market with more interpretations of the US economy and inflation in June.
The previous value of the data is 65.6, and the expected value is 65.8.
This data will directly show the current and future expectations of the US economy based on the survey of respondents by the University of Michigan. The initial and final values of this value have been decreasing since March. If the published data is in line with expectations, the economic expectations for June will increase slightly in the short term, but as long as it is not higher than the previous value, it will still be a decline overall, which will have a certain forward-looking positive impact on US inflation in June.
The decline in the consumer confidence index will lead to a reduction in consumption, which is good for inflation control, especially under the premise that inflation has begun to effectively decline in May. If inflation continues to decline in June, expectations for interest rate cuts will increase greatly.
