$BTC Currently rebounding to 75000
Approaching the ceiling short-term high point
$BTC Short-term holding price ~ $74,000,
~ below the key cost price $78K
Resistance level 5%.
Spot and ETF demand has rebounded,
but profit-taking and cautious options allocation indicate that
the rebound will be volatile and lack strong confidence in liquidity.
① Figure 1 is a classic Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain pricing model chart,
mainly used to assess market cycles, profitability status, and key support/resistance levels;
The chart includes several key "cost benchmark lines,"
they represent the average holding costs of different types of investors:
Black line - BTC spot price:
The actual market price of Bitcoin.
The current price has experienced a significant pullback from previous highs (around $120,000 - $130,000) and is currently oscillating in the $65,000 - $75,000 range.
Red line - Short-term holder cost:
The average cost of tokens moved in the past 155 days.
This represents the breakeven line for "newly entering funds" or "active traders."
In a bull market, this is usually strong support;
in a bear market, it serves as strong resistance.
Currently, this line is around $80,000.
Yellow line and light green line - Active investor average price/real market average price:
These two lines filter out early tokens that have been dormant for a long time,
making it more accurately reflect the average cost of current active market participants.
Currently, these two lines are roughly in the $70,000 - $75,000 range.
Blue line - Realized price:
The average price when all Bitcoins on the network were last moved.
This is the fundamental macro support line.
Currently, this line is around $55,000.
The black line (spot price) has clearly broken below the red line (short-term holder cost).
This means that investors who bought in the past few months are currently in an overall loss position.
Historically,
when prices fall below short-term holder costs,
the market often faces significant selling pressure,
because these investors tend to sell when prices rebound to their breakeven point.
This indicates a weak short-term market momentum.
The black line is currently struggling near the yellow line (active investor average price) and the light green line (real market average price), with even signs of breaking below.
In a healthy bull market pullback,
prices usually find strong support and rebound near these two lines.
#welinkBTC $BTC