Bitcoin's Recent Correction: Technical or Temporary Weakness?
Introduction: Bitcoin's recent spot price correction has taken many traders by surprise, accompanied by a sudden drop in liquidity. Despite the weakness, BTCUSD has still recorded a 64 percent year-to-date climb. In this article, we will delve into the factors supporting the notion that the recent correction is primarily technical, as Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals remain promising.
Source:- Cryptoquant
Bitcoin's 200-Day Moving Average Support
The 200-day moving average (200DMA) has acted as a crucial support line for Bitcoin.
In January, Bitcoin decisively crossed the 200DMA, and it played a vital role in March's V-shaped recovery.
With the current spot-related weakness, the expectation is that BTCUSD will find support once again at the 200DMA.
Accumulation and Distribution Phases
Bitcoin's market behavior can be categorized into accumulation (turquoise) and distribution (purple) phases, forming multi-year cycles.
Institutional money typically favors accumulation cycles, while retail investors are active during distribution cycles.
Bitcoin's history is also characterized by halving events, preceded by pre-halving accumulation cycles (turquoise).
On-Chain UTXO Waves Supporting Price
Bitcoin's older UTXO waves, specifically the 2Y-3Y (blue) and 3Y-5Y (yellow), provide support for the spot price.
The 2Y-3Y wave commenced its accumulation phase in 2022 after a prolonged period of stagnation.
The 3Y-5Y UTXO wave has recently shifted its trajectory upward, indicating accumulation among long-term horizon investors, also known as "smart money."
Conclusion:
Despite the recent technical correction, Bitcoin is backed by multiple on-chain and fundamental tailwinds. The 200-day moving average continues to act as a support line, while the market's accumulation and distribution phases offer valuable insights into investor behavior. The UTXO waves further support the positive outlook for Bitcoin's price. With the 2024 halving approaching and expectations rising, Bitcoin is firmly situated in its pre-halving accumulation cycle. Stay tuned and don't miss out on the potential opportunities ahead.
Takeaways:
Bitcoin's recent correction appears to be technical, with on-chain fundamentals remaining promising.
The 200-day moving average acts as a crucial support level for Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin's market behavior is defined by accumulation and distribution phases, influenced by institutional and retail investor participation.
On-chain UTXO waves, such as the 2Y-3Y and 3Y-5Y cohorts, indicate accumulation and support for Bitcoin's spot price.
The upcoming 2024 halving event adds to the positive sentiment, positioning Bitcoin in its pre-halving accumulation cycle.
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