Bitcoin's rapid ascent encounters possible challenges as experts caution about a potential pullback to $80,000, signaling a possible "buy the dip" scenario.
In its recent Macro Report, investment analysis firm Bravos Research examines the factors shaping Bitcoin's path as 2025 begins, highlighting declining stock market performance and unprecedented outflows from Bitcoin ETFs as major obstacles.
Bitcoin Could Mirror Stock Market Decline
Bravos Research indicates that Bitcoin’s price momentum, although in a “parabolic phase,” might encounter a pullback if it follows the stock market’s weakness.
“This contrasts with the setup in September 2024, when stocks reached new highs while Bitcoin lagged behind. At that time, Bitcoin ultimately matched the stock market’s resilience,” Bravos Research noted in its Dec. 31 report, titled “Is the 2025 Bitcoin Crash Beginning?”
Source: Bravos Research
The report highlighted a potential correction in BTC prices, suggesting that Bitcoin might “catch down to stocks’ weakness.” An accompanying chart compared BTC/USD to the S&P 500, illustrating a notable divergence during December 2024.
“If Bitcoin corrects, we’d look to buy the dip around $80,000 for the next leg higher,” Bravos noted, aligning with recent market sentiment forecasting $80,000 as a critical support level.
ETF Outflows Add to Pressure
Bitcoin ETFs, which presently hold more than 1.15 million BTC, have been acquiring around 3,000 BTC daily. However, Bravos Research warned that even a small dip in this purchasing momentum could apply downward pressure on prices.
Source: Bravos Research
"Bitcoin ETFs could fuel another 50% increase in 50 days at the current rate of accumulation," Bravos calculated. "However, even a modest deceleration in ETF purchases could spark a decline."
Recent withdrawals from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) heighten concerns. While ETF buying remained robust throughout much of 2024, Bravos referenced historical instances, such as March 2024, when Bitcoin prices dropped 30% despite ongoing ETF accumulation.
Bitcoin Price Trends and Technical Indicators
As of early 2025, Bitcoin is priced below the $100,000 threshold, pulling back from its November 2024 peak of $97,938. The decline occurs amid a hawkish Federal Reserve policy, impacting overall risk-asset sentiment. Analysts are also closely monitoring Bitcoin’s relationship with macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation figures and interest rate decisions.
Source: Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s parabolic trajectory suggests the possibility of a sharp correction before resuming its upward momentum. Key support levels, including $80,000, are critical to maintaining investor confidence.
Market Outlook Remains Split
Market participants remain split on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. While some anticipate further declines, others see any pullback as a tactical buying opportunity.
“Bitcoin’s price movement remains volatile but fundamentally robust,” said a crypto analyst from Farside Investors. “Long-term holders may find prospects in these pullbacks.”
As Bitcoin moves into 2025, its ability to weather macroeconomic and market-specific hurdles will likely dictate whether it can maintain its status as a leading digital asset. With ETF performance, stock market patterns, and regulatory shifts influencing the landscape, traders and investors should brace for an eventful year ahead.
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