One of the largest US banks #JPMorgan has changed the brand name of its blockchain-based platform for asset tokenization Onyx. The reason: to prepare for the launch of a “new payment infrastructure”. The platform will now be called Kinexys.

JPMorgan executives explained that the blockchain platform's user base has grown significantly, with payment transactions increasing by 1000% over the year. According to the bank, since the inception of JPMorgan's blockchain platform, it has processed transactions totaling more than $1.5 trillion, including intraday repos and international payments. On average, the platform has processed more than $2 billion in payments per day.

The blockchain platform launched by the bank was previously called JPM Coin and later renamed Onyx. International companies Siemens, BlackRock, and Ant International have become clients of the platform. Given the demand for tokenization of assets among large banks and financial companies, JPMorgan decided to rebrand the platform.

The name Kinexys comes from the word “kinetic,” the bank explained. The term refers to the movement of money, assets and financial data around the world. The Kinexys team will have to increase privacy on the blockchain and improve data identification, the bankers assured. Kinexys is going to provide access to circulating capital and reduce transaction costs for traders, JPMorgan promised.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has repeatedly stated that he does not support cryptocurrencies, calling bitcoin a pyramid scheme. At the same time, Dimon praised the potential of decentralized finance (DeFi) and blockchain, which allows banks to exchange complex information.
#BTCNear82k

According to investment bank analysts, Spot BTC exchange-traded funds launched on January 11 will not attract a significant amount of new capital.

The Block writes that JPMorgan assessed the possible flow of funds into new spot Bitcoin ETFs from other existing cryptocurrency instruments. The launched funds will not attract a significant amount of new capital. Still, bank analysts believe $36 billion could flow into them from cryptocurrency accounts on exchanges, futures ETFs, and other crypto products.

On the evening of January 10, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. The trading volume of Bitcoin ETF shares on the first day exceeded $4.6 billion.

JPMorgan believes that about $3 billion could flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs from Bitcoin futures ETFs, between $3 billion and $13 billion from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and up to $15–20 billion from retail investor accounts on crypto platforms. Analysts did not specify the period during which this could happen.

 

“We believe the amount of new capital flowing into the cryptocurrency space will likely depend on regulation and, in particular, how many opportunities for the cryptocurrency ecosystem emerge from the traditional financial system over time,” the bank said.

 

Analysts said fees and liquidity will likely play a key role in how much money flows into newly launched ETFs. According to them, Grayscale’s GBTC could face outflows of $5-10 billion if it does not reduce fees from 1.5 to 0.25%, like BlackRock and other ETF issuers. In addition, speculative investors will likely profit from GBTC units purchased at a deep discount on the secondary market in 2023 and move about $3 billion into newly created spot ETFs.

The bank also believes retail investors will likely transfer some of their funds to spot Bitcoin ETFs from crypto exchanges and brokerage services. And institutional investors can switch to spot Bitcoin ETFs from futures ETFs with low fees.

Last December, JPMorgan experts predicted that in 2024, Ethereum would surpass Bitcoin in growth rates. Amid the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, speculation about the approval of exchange-traded funds on Ethereum has already caused an increase in the price of the leading altcoin.

Analysts at JPMorgan have indicated a potential easing in the selling pressure on Bitcoin, as the bulk of profit-taking from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) appears to be concluding.

In a market report released on Jan. 25, a team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, JPMorgan’s market strategy managing director,”GBTC profit taking has largely happened already.” The assessment suggests that the primary factors influencing Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, specifically those linked to GBTC, might be diminishing.

Grayscale’s fund has been trading below its net asset value since early 2021. Analysts attribute the $4.3 billion in outflows since its Jan. 11 conversion to an ETF to investors cashing in on earlier GBTC investments. This is seen as a key factor in Bitcoin’s near 20% price fall, with its value now below $40,000, coinciding with the introduction of several US Bitcoin ETFs.

Notably, on Jan. 24, these funds experienced a record high in daily net outflows, reaching $158 million, as reported by BitMEX research data. This was the highest single-day net outflow since these ETFs began trading.

Here is the chart for day 9, with all data outDay 9 was pretty weak for Blackrock, with +$66mFidelity performed well: +$126m pic.twitter.com/2VzTpZWOKx

— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) January 25, 2024

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On Jan. 24, Grayscale’s ETF experienced outflows amounting to $429 million. Following this, BitMEX data revealed a decrease in outflows to $394 million on Jan. 25, marking this as the second smallest outflow day for the fund on record.

Data compiled by CC15Capital for Jan. 24 highlighted a significant reduction in Bitcoin holdings across all ten spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling a loss of 4,610 BTC, valued at nearly $184 million.

✅ FINAL Update for 1/24 #Bitcoin   Holdings of 🇺🇸 ETFs👇$GBTC posted the official data & the actual # was very close to my estimate (again) 👍Ready for 1/25 data 🧮$IBIT $FBTC $ARKB $BITB $BRRR $BTCO $HODL $EZBC $BTCW $DEFI $GBTC pic.twitter.com/v9mgg8lZzW

— CC15Capital 🇺🇸 (@Capital15C) January 25, 2024

Amidst these developments, JPMorgan analysts have identified BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs as emerging competitors to GBTC in the space. These funds have rapidly amassed considerable assets under management, with BlackRock and Fidelity’s respective totals standing at $1.9 billion and $1.8 billion.

On Jan. 24, BlackRock’s ETF witnessed its lowest inflow since inception, adding only 1,663 BTC to its holdings, which now amount to approximately 45,700 BTC. In contrast, Fidelity’s ETF experienced an addition of 3,170 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 41,319 BTC.

Read more: Bitcoin ETFs in US approved. What about Europe?

Investors’ allocation to Bitcoin is 3.7 times more than that to gold, according to Nikolaos.

The market for spot Bitcoin ETFs can reach $220 billion in the next 2-3 years.

After taking volatility into account, a JP Morgan analyst claims that Bitcoin is currently more heavily allocated to investor portfolios than gold. Investors’ allocation to Bitcoin (BTC) is 3.7 times more than that to gold, according to JPMorgan managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who allegedly said this after accounting for volatility.

Using gold as a benchmark, the analyst predicted that the market capitalization for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) might reach $62 billion, pointing out the substantial inflows of over $10 billion into these funds since their introduction in January.

Further Surge Anticipated

According to JPMorgan, the market for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can reach $220 billion in the next 2-3 years. Due in large part to the success of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the market capitalization of the biggest cryptocurrency in the world increased by more than 45 percent in February. After just $1.5 billion in January, spot Bitcoin ETF net sales soared to $6.1 billion in February.

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows hit a record high of over $1 billion on March 12, and experts predict the figure might go up if investors stop pulling out of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF.

The CEO of crypto analytics business CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, forecasts that a supply crisis will occur within the next six months due to the impending Bitcoin halving, which is just over a month away. This is because the daily supply of BTC will be slashed in half.

Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals ended a crypto winter that lasted almost three years and sparked BTC’s massive price action, which has now surpassed the all-time high of above $69,000 and opened the door to institutional adoption spearheaded by BlackRock.

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In today’s fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, a myriad of events unfolds that can reshape the landscape of digital finance. From the shifting sands of Coinbase’s market position to the intricate details of Bitcoin ETFs’ on-chain activities, and the penetrating gaze of U.S. legislators on Meta’s blockchain ambitions, the crypto sphere is a hive of activity. Let’s dissect these developments, unpacking their significance in the ever-evolving crypto narrative.

The Downgrading Dilemma of Coinbase

Coinbase, the vanguard of cryptocurrency exchanges in the U.S., faces a challenging phase as JPMorgan downgrades its stock from a beacon of hope to a neutral stance. This shift emerges amid the turbulent price action of Bitcoin, especially following the approval of nine spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). JPMorgan’s analysts have set their sights lower for Coinbase’s stock, maintaining a year-end target of $80, a considerable plunge from its current trading mark around $124. This projection suggests a potential downside of over 35%, signaling turbulent waters ahead for Coinbase.

Despite Coinbase’s dominance in the U.S. crypto market and its prominent position in global cryptocurrency trading, the anticipated boost from Bitcoin ETFs seems to be fading into disillusionment. The declining trajectory of Bitcoin, slipping below the $40,000 threshold, exacerbates this situation, casting a shadow over Coinbase’s future prospects. This downturn in Coinbase’s fortunes is a stark reminder of the volatility and unpredictability inherent in the crypto market.

Unveiling Bitcoin ETFs’ On-Chain Secrets

In a remarkable revelation, Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain research entity, has successfully identified the on-chain Bitcoin addresses of several U.S. spot BTC ETFs. This breakthrough sheds light on the substantial holdings of these funds. Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holds a whopping 33,430 BTC, roughly valued at $1.3 billion. Even more impressive is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which holds an enormous 558,280 BTC, translating to nearly $29 billion.

This newfound transparency, while illuminating the ETFs’ operations, raises concerns over potential security risks. The disclosure of on-chain addresses of these significant Bitcoin ETFs opens up a new chapter in the debate over the balance between transparency and security in the crypto world. It highlights the need for robust security measures in the face of increasing transparency demands in the digital finance realm.

Meta’s Blockchain Ambitions Under Scrutiny

Meta, the tech giant formerly known as Facebook, is under the microscope as U.S. lawmakers demand clarity on its foray into blockchain and cryptocurrency. Sparking this inquiry are five active trademark applications related to crypto and blockchain, filed in 2022. Congresswoman Maxine Waters has reached out to Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg for explanations, signaling a growing interest and concern among policymakers about big tech’s role in the digital asset ecosystem.

These trademark applications, encompassing services ranging from crypto trading to blockchain asset transfers, suggest Meta’s continued interest in expanding its footprint in the digital assets domain. This scrutiny from lawmakers underscores the increasing attention and regulatory interest in the intersection of technology and finance, particularly as it pertains to digital currencies and blockchain technology.

FINRA Flags Misleading Crypto Communications

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) has turned its attention to the accuracy and integrity of crypto-related communications. In a recent examination, FINRA discovered that a staggering 70% of reviewed crypto communications contained misleading or false information, or otherwise violated public communication guidelines. This alarming finding points to a significant issue in the crypto industry: the prevalence of inaccurate or deceptive information disseminated to the public.

This situation calls for a greater emphasis on transparency and honesty in crypto communications, stressing the importance of providing investors with clear, accurate, and comprehensive information about crypto investments and services. The regulatory body’s findings are a stark reminder of the pitfalls in the burgeoning world of digital finance and the need for stringent oversight to protect investors.

As we wrap up today’s overview of crypto events, it is evident that the cryptocurrency landscape is fraught with challenges, opportunities, and a constant state of flux. From Coinbase’s stock woes to the revealing insights into Bitcoin ETFs, and from Meta’s blockchain endeavors to FINRA’s crackdown on misleading crypto communications, the world of cryptocurrency remains a vibrant and complex ecosystem. As investors, tech giants, regulators, and enthusiasts navigate this dynamic domain, one thing is certain – the crypto journey is full of twists and turns, requiring vigilance, adaptability, and a keen understanding of the multifaceted digital economy.

BTC is trading above $64K even as outflows accelerate.

The correlation between ETF outflows and BTC’s price is weakening.

Bitcoin {{BTC}} is trading above $64K in the early afternoon of East Asia’s trading day, even as outflows from bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pick up significantly.

Market data shows that the U.S.-listed ETFs had a daily total net outflow of $217 million. This brings the total outflow so far this week to $244.49 million.

In comparison, bitcoin is up around 3.7% in the last week.

According to JPMorgan, the correlation between bitcoin ETF prices and inflows has weakened, dropping from a high of 0.84 in January to 0.60 in recent assessments. This indicates a decrease in the alignment between BTC prices and spot ETF flows, CoinDesk reported in February.

Given its size, the outflow from Grayscale’s converted bitcoin ETF (GBTC) is of particular interest to traders. Data from SoSoValue shows that since Monday, GBTC has experienced an outflow of $417 million during the last week—yet BTC prices still increased in the face of it.

Liquidation data is also fairly flat, according to GoinGlass, with $60 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours. Of this $60 million, BTC made up $13.48 million worth, and $6.17 million longs were liquidated against roughly $7 million in shorts.

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the largest digital assets, is flat, trading at 2,246.

According to CoinDesk: In a significant development for cryptocurrency markets, JPMorgan has downgraded the rating for U.S. exchange Coinbase (COIN) from neutral to underweight. This move is based on the predicted disappointment involving the Bitcoin ETF catalyst, which significantly uplifted crypto markets in the past year.

JPMorgan's research report, released Monday, articulates concerns surrounding the launch of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Despite a convincing bull-run fueled by the launch of these ETFs, 2024 could present a challenging scenario for investors and Coinbase, potentially reversing the positive tide.

Coinbase shares dropped 4.1% to $122.90 in premarket trading, following the announcement. The progression of this leading U.S. exchange with several vital initiatives isn't expected to cushion the possible fall due to the disappointment concerning Bitcoin ETFs.

The Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) approval, last month, of spot Bitcoin ETFs was perceived as a herald for a new cryptocurrency era. It promised increased mainstream money influx into crypto markets as it allowed investors access to the sector without owning the underlying assets.

However, the report flags potential disappointments, suggesting that reduced ETF fund flows could hamper enthusiasm, resulting in a potential cryptocurrency market slump. Bitcoin prices have already been under pressure, falling below $40,000, and further deflation is anticipated due to wavering ETF enthusiasm. This, in effect, could lead to lower token prices, trading volumes, and reduced ancillary revenue opportunities for platforms like Coinbase.

Coinbase's potential role as custodian, surveillance, and trading provider for spot Ether (ETH) ETFs is also mentioned in the report, assuming these ETFs gain approval. However, the fall in the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency since the approval of spot ETFs casts a shadow over this possibility.
 
JPMorgan emphasized that intensified selling pressure on Bitcoin, in part due to FTX's bankruptcy estate's dumping of $2 billion worth of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) post its conversion to an ETF, continues to hamper the underlying digital asset's value.

Trading on Coinbase (COIN) opened up by 6% in the first hour of the day on Feb. 15, boosted by rising token prices and a recent rating upgrade by JPMorgan analysts.

After downgrading the crypto exchange stock in January, JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Worthington changed his tune and revised the stock rating from underweight to neutral, citing the positive impact of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on crypto markets. Worthington reportedly wrote to clients on Feb. 15:

“Given the acceleration in recent days of flows into Bitcoin ETFs and the significant price appreciation of Bitcoin and now Ethereum, we are returning to a Neutral rating on Coinbase as we see the higher cryptocurrency prices not only sustaining, but improving, activity levels and Coinbase’s earnings power as we look to 1Q24.”

Bitcoin ETFs amassed over $10 billion in assets under management in their first month of trading, exceeding most analysts’ predictions with solid demand for the crypto investment vehicle. Coinbase’s custody arm has partnered with a majority of asset managers that launched Bitcoin ETFs in January. These products are anticipated to yield between $25 and $30 million in fees for the company.

On the negative side, the exchange may not be profitable this year. According to an analysis from InvestingPro, Coinbase has a negative operating income margin of -55.53%. This profitability ratio measures a company's profitability after paying its variable costs.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the exchange to record losses of around $16 million in the last quarter of 2023. Some of them, however, are going against the grain. Needham & Company's John Todaro anticipates Coinbase to post a net income of $103 million, which could push the exchange to profitability for the first time in two years.

Coinbase businesses are also challenged by legal troubles with regulators. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued the exchange in June 2023 for allegedly offering unregistered securities.

Nevertheless, investors seem to be looking at the exchange’s long-term prospects. The stock’s one-year price total return is up 131%. InvestingPro notes that COIN is currently trading at a "high Price/Book multiple," meaning the stock could be overvalued compared to the company’s actual net assets.

JPMorgan's Worthington maintained the stock target price at $80, well above the $170 trading price at the time of writing.

Magazine: Deposit risk: What do crypto exchanges really do with your money?

In a surprising turn of events, the cryptocurrency community is abuzz with speculation surrounding JPMorgan’s alleged foray into the XRP market. Ben Armstrong, a well-known figure in the crypto sector, made waves with his recent claim that the global banking giant has made a significant investment in XRP, Ripple’s digital asset.&middot

For the full story, head over to TheCurrencyAnalytics.com.

A JPMorgan report highlighted that retail traders led the February crypto market rally.

The report factored in inflows into recently approved spot Bitcoin funds.

Retail traders’ resurgence led by optimism for Bitcoin halving, Ethereum network upgrade, and ETH ETFs.

A new report from JPMorgan has suggested that retail traders have emerged as key players propelling the resurgence of the cryptocurrency market in February. Bloomberg captured details of the analysis from JPMorgan in a recent report.

As per the report, the resurgence of ‘mom-and-pop’ investors in crypto markets following the January crash is the driving force behind the recent surge in popular cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, reaching multi-year highs.

Specifically, the research team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director of JPMorgan, argued that on-chain Bitcoin flows from small wallets have significantly outpaced those from institutional investors. Besides, the report noted that inflows into recently approved spot Bitcoin funds were factored into the analysis.

This was necessary to prevent large institutional wallets from appearing artificially inflated, as they include funds from retail traders who have recently invested in these new funds. Essentially, the report suggested the observed trend for retail leading the crypto rally holds even after adjusting for inflows into new spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Retail and institutional inflow into crypto | JPMorgan

Furthermore, JPMorgan analysts noted that this resurgence is driven by anticipation surrounding three pivotal crypto catalysts in the coming months. This includes the Bitcoin halving event in April, the upcoming Ethereum network upgrade, and the potential approval of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in May.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan argued that the first two catalysts are largely factored into the current market dynamics. However, for the third, the analyst estimated only a 50% likelihood of approval for spot Ethereum ETFs. 

The trend of increased retail investment is not isolated to February alone. Reports from payment giants PayPal and Robinhood Markets indicate a notable uptick in net positive Bitcoin customer purchases in the fourth quarter of 2023, marking a stark improvement from previous quarters.

The post Retail Traders Drive Crypto Market Surge in February, JPMorgan Reports appeared first on Coin Edition.

According to Cointelegraph: The price of Bitcoin – the world's premier cryptocurrency – surged past the $40,000 resistance level on January 26, marking an uptick of 3.2%. This unexpected rally followed the monthly Bitcoin options expiry valued at $4.5 billion, where the balance between Bitcoin call (buy) and put (sell) options played a significant role.

The positive shift in Bitcoin's performance was further bolstered by a dip in US inflationary pressures. Data from the US Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index exhibited a 2.9% year-over-year rise in December 2023, excluding food and energy. This data, instrumental for the Federal Reserve (Fed) in setting interest rates, suggests an improved path for the Fed to manage inflation without catalyzing a recession. Concurrently, the US gross domestic product (GDP) recorded a healthy 3.3% growth in Q4 2023.

As the sizable US federal debt's interest payment continues to escalate – estimated to cross $1.7 trillion by 2027, adjusted for inflation – analysts see this scenario as a factor improving Bitcoin's price potential. The belief is that the US dollar will continue to lose value over time, thereby indirectly benefiting Bitcoin.

Moreover, Bitcoin recently received a favorable nod from the conventional financial sphere. A JP Morgan report suggested that the outflows from the Grayscale GBTC spot Bitcoin ETF have likely peaked, implying that this channel's downward pressure on Bitcoin's price should largely be mitigated.

Showing promising signs, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows totaling $744 million over a 10-day period. Even with the continuation of Grayscale GBTC outflows, firms including BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark 21 Shares, and Bitwise are expected to counterbalance the situation.

Further optimism for Bitcoin investors stems from the reduced transaction costs on the Bitcoin network after a period of high demand when transactions higher than 30 sat/vB (approximately $1.90) were stuck in the mempool.

Bitcoin ‘mempool’ pending 30 sat/vB or higher transactions. Source: Mempool Space

It is likely that the combination of these factors – the balance of Bitcoin options, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and mitigated risks from Grayscale GBTC outflows – contributed to Bitcoin's recent surge above $42,000.

JPMorgan Chase has taken a significant leap in digital finance with its proprietary digital token, JPM Coin. The recent integration of programmable payments represents a transformative step for corporate clients, including heavyweights like Siemens and FedEx. Naveen Mallela, Head of Coin Systems at JPMorgan’s blockchain division Onyx, emphasized the breakthrough nature of this advancement. Programmable payments enable automatic fund transfers under specific conditions. This innovation eliminates the need for fixed payment schedules, allowing instant transactions upon fulfilling preset criteria.

The practical application of JPM Coin’s new feature is already in motion. Siemens successfully used programmable payments for contingency fund transfers this week. Additionally, FedEx and Cargill are gearing up to implement this feature. These early adoptions underscore the growing trend towards digitalization in corporate finance. The programmable aspect of JPM Coin adds to its existing capability of facilitating real-time money transfers globally. Since its launch in 2019 on JPMorgan’s Ethereum-based blockchain Onyx, JPM Coin has seen remarkable uptake, reportedly managing $1 billion in daily transfers.

Expanding blockchain frontiers in finance

JPMorgan’s foray into blockchain and crypto-related projects is aggressive and forward-thinking. The Onyx platform not only handles JPM Coin transactions but also supports trading in tokenized securities. Recently, the platform played a pivotal role in tokenizing money market fund shares for BlackRock, which Barclays utilized as collateral in a derivatives contract. This venture into blockchain technology by JPMorgan, including the success of JPM Coin, illustrates the bank’s commitment to innovating in the digital finance space.

Moreover, JPMorgan’s blockchain business unit, Onyx, has now made programmable payments generally available. This advancement marks a milestone in the evolution of JPM Coin, with programmable payments automating transactions based on pre-established rules. This feature is a boon for JPMorgan’s institutional clients, enhancing their treasury functions. It also addresses challenges like treasury downtime during weekends and holidays, as JPM Coin operates continuously.

JPMorgan’s initiative with JPM Coin and programmable payments is not just about enhancing current financial systems. It’s a vision for the future. While JPM Coin currently processes a fraction of JPMorgan’s daily transactions, there’s a roadmap to expand these services to retail consumers. Such steps are significant in the broader context of digital finance, where traditional banking systems and emerging blockchain technologies are increasingly intersecting.

This continuous innovation and adoption of digital finance tools like JPM Coin signal a transformative period in corporate finance. JPMorgan’s leadership in integrating blockchain technology into mainstream banking operations paves the way for a more efficient, secure, and flexible financial ecosystem. The bank’s commitment to exploring and implementing these advancements reflects a proactive approach to the evolving landscape of digital finance.

The post JPMorgan Coin revolutionizes corporate payments with programmable features first appeared on Coinfea.

According to CoinDesk, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) deadline for the Ark 21Shares spot ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) application is May 23, and JPMorgan estimates the probability of approval by then is no more than 50%. Since the bitcoin (BTC) ETF narrative gained traction last year, traders have viewed ether as the next likely candidate for spot ETF approval in the U.S. This sentiment is reflected in the Grayscale Ethereum Trust's (ETHE) discount to net asset value (NAV), which has contracted since the summer and hovered around 12% over the last two months, according to JPMorgan.

Some argue that the SEC's decision not to mention ETH in its lawsuit against crypto exchanges for violating securities law indicates the regulator will likely classify the cryptocurrency as a commodity in the coming months, a necessary condition for spot ETF approval. Others contend that the approval of ether futures-based ETFs in September last year implies ether is already considered a commodity. However, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou are skeptical, stating that the chances of a spot ether ETF approval by May this year are 'not higher than 50%'.

Ether's recent surge followed the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF, as traders bet on the likelihood of an ether ETF approval. If approved, it would be the first time professional investors in the U.S. can gain exposure to the blockchain’s token without having to own it. However, Ethereum's transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake consensus mechanism in 2022 and the negative impact on the blockchain’s decentralization make ether more similar to other altcoins classified as securities by the SEC. The ongoing lawsuits by the SEC against crypto exchanges offering staking services for proof-of-stake blockchains, including Ethereum, make a spot ether ETF approval more challenging until these lawsuits are resolved.