Tonight, with a continuation tomorrow, there is a high probability of a second wave of sales at the reversal of weekly candles for coins into bearish, which I emphasized on Tuesday. Tomorrow, from the second half of the day, the probability of a new wave of purchases with local peaks for coins over the weekend prevails. However, on Sunday, it is advisable to carefully weigh money management and reduce positions in anticipation of the year change next week. On Sunday and Monday, there is a high likelihood of sharp sales on a pullback on the annual candle with a continuation into the new year, which may lead to prolonged declines.

Before the start of a new week, let's consider the market position and the prospects for the new weekly candle. After an aggressive continuation of sales within the annual pullback, as expected, Ethereum is attempting a reversal, aiming for a retest of 4000 at least and a probable consolidation above. Today - tomorrow, the likelihood of a new impulse of sales at 3150-250 remains, with a continuation of growth from the second bottom. From 3750 and 4000, aggressive bounces can be expected due to the low opening of the week and the ongoing probability of transitioning to stable sales from the retest of 4000. The outgoing statistics and dynamics of the currency market will have a significant impact.

Unfortunately, against the background of the forecast for the further dynamics of the US interest rate and strong GDP data, we did not see a reversal of the weekly candles since Wednesday and the market headed for a retest of 3000-3100, which I have been indicating for the past few weeks, this week, and not next week. The target range was reached today, then there is a high probability of a new attempt to reverse the weekly candles for individual alts, in connection with which you can add to the coins. In an optimistic scenario, the pullback for the current week will turn into growth for the new weekly candle and Ethereum will return to the bullish trend with consolidation above 4000. In a less volatile scenario, growth attempts over the weekend will be extinguished with the week closing below 3250. In this case, in the new week you can only count on a retest of 3750-3900, from where sales will continue. In both scenarios, until the end of the month, there is still a possibility for an attempt to reverse the monthly candle for alts. For Bitcoin, the main support this week is the 89-95k range. The move to 75k is still relevant, but the likelihood of working out this target closer to the end of the year or in January prevails.

In volatile markets like cryptocurrency, where prices can swing wildly in short periods, understanding market psychology and identifying key patterns is essential for making informed decisions. One such critical concept is the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase, a powerful tool that helps traders identify when large investors (often called “whales”) are quietly accumulating assets at discounted prices. This phase is a crucial part of the Wyckoff Method, which helps traders read market movements and anticipate future price trends.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of how the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase works and how you can apply it to enhance your trading strategy.
What is the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase?
The Wyckoff Accumulation Phase is a specific part of the Wyckoff Method, a market theory developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 20th century. This phase typically occurs after a significant market decline and represents a period where large institutional investors accumulate an asset at a low price before a potential upward move.
At its core, Wyckoff's theory suggests that the market moves in cycles, and each cycle can be broken down into phases: Accumulation, Mark-up, Distribution, and Mark-down. The Accumulation Phase is where the market is in the process of building a foundation for the next major price increase.

Key Stages of the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase
1. Initial Crash:
The process begins with a sharp decline in the asset’s price. This often follows a period of overvaluation or a market bubble that eventually bursts. At this stage, fear sets in as many retail traders panic, believing that the market is on the verge of collapse. This widespread fear creates an emotional sell-off.
Traders who are already in positions may be forced to exit due to fear of further losses. This mass selling causes the price to plummet rapidly, leading to what we call a “crash” or sharp decline.
2. The Bounce-Back (The False Recovery):
After the initial crash, the market experiences a small recovery. This is often referred to as a “bounce-back.” As the price begins to rise slightly, many traders believe the worst is over, and optimism returns. However, this bounce is typically short-lived, as the underlying market conditions have not yet been fully addressed.
During this phase, traders might mistakenly believe the market has turned around, and some may even re-enter positions, convinced that the recovery will continue. However, as history often shows, this is just a temporary respite before another significant drop.
3. The Deeper Crash:
This phase is crucial to the Wyckoff Accumulation cycle. After the initial recovery, the market usually experiences another, deeper decline. The price falls even further, breaking previous support levels and causing many traders to abandon their positions completely.
By this time, confidence in the market is shattered. Those who entered positions during the bounce-back are now facing significant losses, and they panic, selling off whatever assets they have left. This is the most emotionally charged phase, as traders who once expected large profits are now facing the harsh reality of a bear market.
But this is also the moment when the real opportunity arises.
4. The Accumulation (Whale Activity):
While most retail traders are panic-selling, large investors (whales) quietly step in. They recognize the market’s temporary undervaluation and begin accumulating the asset at bargain prices. This is the essence of the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase: the smart money is buying when others are selling out of fear.
During this phase, the price movement tends to be subtle. It may appear that the market is stuck in a range, with prices fluctuating within a narrow band. This can often be mistaken for indecisiveness or a lack of momentum. However, behind the scenes, institutional investors are building their positions, ready for the eventual rise in price.
5. Recovery and Mark-Up:
Once the whales have accumulated enough of the asset, the market begins its gradual recovery. At this stage, the price starts to climb steadily, though it often remains relatively slow and measured at first.
As the price increases, more and more retail traders begin to notice the recovery and re-enter the market, believing that the downtrend has ended. The momentum starts to build, and the price surges as the market transitions into the Mark-Up Phase, where the value of the asset continues to rise significantly.
This is the phase where traders who held through the initial panic and recognized the accumulation phase will reap the rewards of their patience.
Recognizing the Accumulation Phase
Understanding when the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase is occurring is key to becoming a successful trader, especially in volatile markets like cryptocurrency. Here are a few indicators and signals to look for:
1. Price Action:
One of the primary indicators of the accumulation phase is sideways price action. After the deep crash and bounce-back, the price will often move within a range, showing no significant upward or downward momentum. This can be seen as a “trading range” or consolidation period.
2. Volume Analysis:
Volume is a crucial factor to watch during the accumulation phase. As prices move sideways, you’ll notice that volume increases during the downward moves (as retail traders sell) and decreases during the upward moves. When large institutional investors are accumulating, volume will often be low during price increases and higher during price declines.
3. Price Structure (Triple Bottom):
A common pattern seen in the accumulation phase is the triple bottom. This is when the price tests a particular low multiple times, each time bouncing back slightly before ultimately breaking through and starting to rise again. The repeated testing of this level indicates strong support and may signify the start of an upward trend.
4. Market Sentiment:
Sentiment during this phase is often negative, and there may be widespread bearish news or narratives about the market collapsing. This negative sentiment is what creates the fear-driven sell-offs, providing the opportunity for the whales to buy.
5. Support and Resistance Levels:
Traders should keep an eye on key support and resistance levels. During the accumulation phase, the price will often test key support levels but will not break below them. This creates a strong base for the upcoming rally.
Why Patience is Key
ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT LESSONS TO LEARN FROM THE WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION PHASE IS THE VALUE OF PATIENCE. THE MARKET MAY LOOK BLEAK DURING THE ACCUMULATION PHASE, BUT IF YOU UNDERSTAND THE UNDERLYING DYNAMICS, YOU’LL BE ABLE TO RECOGNIZE THAT THESE PERIODS OF CONSOLIDATION ARE THE PERFECT OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCUMULATE ASSETS AT LOWER PRICES.
IF YOU ACT ON EMOTION, SUCH AS PANIC-SELLING DURING A SHARP DECLINE, YOU MAY MISS OUT ON FUTURE PROFITS. TRUSTING THE LARGER MARKET CYCLE AND STAYING PATIENT DURING THE ACCUMULATION PHASE CAN LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT REWARDS WHEN THE MARKET EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE MARK-UP PHASE.
Conclusion
The Wyckoff Accumulation Phase is a powerful tool for understanding market behavior, especially in volatile spaces like cryptocurrency. Recognizing when the market is in the accumulation phase allows traders to avoid emotional decision-making and capitalize on opportunities that arise when others are fearful.
By studying the key stages of the Wyckoff Method, including the initial crash, the bounce-back, the deeper decline, and the accumulation by whales, traders can position themselves to make smarter, more informed decisions.
THE KEY TAKEAWAY? STAY PATIENT, STAY AWARE OF MARKET SENTIMENT, AND TRUST THE CYCLE. THE ACCUMULATION PHASE MAY FEEL LIKE A TIME OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT FOR THOSE WHO UNDERSTAND IT, IT’S OFTEN THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM OF FUTURE GAINS.

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