9月份降息板上钉钉
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The results are out, guys! The U.S. unemployment rate for July was 4.4% before, 4.1% expected, and 4.1% is good for the cryptocurrency market. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, 17.9 before, 17.5 expected, 11.4 after, is good for the cryptocurrency market. This will directly affect the timing of the Fed's rate cut. Both data are good, plus Powell mentioned rate cuts in his speech two days ago, so the possibility of a rate cut in September is very high, almost a done deal! #BTC #9月份降息板上钉钉
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Fuck, fuck 🦙
What the hell is this market!
Why is it so hard to play? It’s a headache to play!
It’s not right to sell or buy now!
Can the price drop be quicker?
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #9月份降息板上钉钉
$BTC $ETH $UNI
What the hell is this market!
Why is it so hard to play? It’s a headache to play!
It’s not right to sell or buy now!
Can the price drop be quicker?
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #9月份降息板上钉钉
$BTC $ETH $UNI
See original
Powell's first six speeches review. Everyone is looking forward to his speech at 22:00 tonight, and be prepared to respond! ! !
August 24, 2018, after the speech, the 2-year US Treasury yield was -1Bp. Advocated gradual rate hikes as a compromise, and the market interpreted "gradually" as once a quarter; expressed doubts about the forecast values of r* (neutral interest rate) and u* (neutral unemployment rate); pointed out that overheating risks include financial overexpansion, not just high inflation.
August 23, 2019, after the speech, the 2-year US Treasury yield was -4Bp. Advocated further rate cuts to address a series of downside risks, and hinted that the market has already priced in rate cuts to keep financial conditions loose. Goldman Sachs then raised its expectations for further rate cuts.
August 27, 2020, after the speech, the 2-year US Treasury yield was +0.4Bp. Announced the adoption of a flexible average inflation target, concluding the assessment of the monetary policy framework. This is a significant long-term easing shift, but it is largely in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs brought forward its expected timing of changes to forward guidance and asset purchase programs by one meeting.
August 27, 2021, 2-year Treasury yields -2Bp after the speech. While acknowledging the strength of recent employment data, it also pointed out the downside risks posed by the new crown Delta variant; reinforced expectations of an imminent announcement of tapering.
August 26, 2022, 2-year Treasury yields +4Bp after the speech. Reiterated that it is appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes at some point, but also said that policy may need to remain tight for "quite a while" to control inflation, and said that an additional 75 basis points "may be appropriate", but will depend on the data.
August 25, 2023, 2-year Treasury yields +4Bp after the speech. Said that the Fed will "act cautiously" when deciding whether to raise interest rates at future meetings, which indicates that there will be no further rate hikes at the next meeting or in this cycle; made a more hawkish risk assessment and pointed out that the Fed noticed that "the economy may not be cooling as expected"
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #9月份降息板上钉钉
August 24, 2018, after the speech, the 2-year US Treasury yield was -1Bp. Advocated gradual rate hikes as a compromise, and the market interpreted "gradually" as once a quarter; expressed doubts about the forecast values of r* (neutral interest rate) and u* (neutral unemployment rate); pointed out that overheating risks include financial overexpansion, not just high inflation.
August 23, 2019, after the speech, the 2-year US Treasury yield was -4Bp. Advocated further rate cuts to address a series of downside risks, and hinted that the market has already priced in rate cuts to keep financial conditions loose. Goldman Sachs then raised its expectations for further rate cuts.
August 27, 2020, after the speech, the 2-year US Treasury yield was +0.4Bp. Announced the adoption of a flexible average inflation target, concluding the assessment of the monetary policy framework. This is a significant long-term easing shift, but it is largely in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs brought forward its expected timing of changes to forward guidance and asset purchase programs by one meeting.
August 27, 2021, 2-year Treasury yields -2Bp after the speech. While acknowledging the strength of recent employment data, it also pointed out the downside risks posed by the new crown Delta variant; reinforced expectations of an imminent announcement of tapering.
August 26, 2022, 2-year Treasury yields +4Bp after the speech. Reiterated that it is appropriate to slow the pace of rate hikes at some point, but also said that policy may need to remain tight for "quite a while" to control inflation, and said that an additional 75 basis points "may be appropriate", but will depend on the data.
August 25, 2023, 2-year Treasury yields +4Bp after the speech. Said that the Fed will "act cautiously" when deciding whether to raise interest rates at future meetings, which indicates that there will be no further rate hikes at the next meeting or in this cycle; made a more hawkish risk assessment and pointed out that the Fed noticed that "the economy may not be cooling as expected"
#杰克逊霍尔年会 #9月份降息板上钉钉
Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting tonight at 22:00. The market is certain that he will "officially announce" the start of the interest rate cut cycle in September. The focus has shifted to whether the option of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is still on the table, and Powell may remain silent on this.
If there is a market fluctuation at that time, everyone should be prepared to deal with it and miss it! ! !
#降息
If there is a market fluctuation at that time, everyone should be prepared to deal with it and miss it! ! !
#降息
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Bitcoin monthly level, from a long cycle, momentum is still fading. Although the lower shadow of last month is very long, we can see that the entity is gradually moving downward.
From a weekly perspective, a large negative column last week completely covered the previous positive column, a typical bearish signal. It is expected that this week will close with a negative column with a high probability, mainly based on the idea of high altitude.
For the daily line, there are two possibilities, either it will fall directly or it will form a head and shoulders top around 62000-62500 as predicted in the picture, and then continue to fall. This is my current personal opinion.
For the short term, it is currently in a box, and it is good to eat the band back and forth. Go long around 57000
Go short around 61900
This is my personal opinion and the market is deduced based on my personal experience! 😊
#Bitcoin❗ #比特币走势分析 #YingTian2024 #9月份降息板上钉钉
From a weekly perspective, a large negative column last week completely covered the previous positive column, a typical bearish signal. It is expected that this week will close with a negative column with a high probability, mainly based on the idea of high altitude.
For the daily line, there are two possibilities, either it will fall directly or it will form a head and shoulders top around 62000-62500 as predicted in the picture, and then continue to fall. This is my current personal opinion.
For the short term, it is currently in a box, and it is good to eat the band back and forth. Go long around 57000
Go short around 61900
This is my personal opinion and the market is deduced based on my personal experience! 😊
#Bitcoin❗ #比特币走势分析 #YingTian2024 #9月份降息板上钉钉
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Why is the market so difficult this year?
All the money I earned was lost!
Where is the promise of carving a boat to find a sword?
This is happening at the beginning of August?
Let an analyst analyze it!
Tm old abalone should not cut interest rates
Must delay the rate cut until September!
I can't hold on any longer, brothers
My life is like walking on thin ice, can I reach the other side with a full warehouse of UNI?
#美联储何时降息？ #9月份降息板上钉钉
$BTC $UNI
All the money I earned was lost!
Where is the promise of carving a boat to find a sword?
This is happening at the beginning of August?
Let an analyst analyze it!
Tm old abalone should not cut interest rates
Must delay the rate cut until September!
I can't hold on any longer, brothers
My life is like walking on thin ice, can I reach the other side with a full warehouse of UNI?
#美联储何时降息？ #9月份降息板上钉钉
$BTC $UNI
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