2024.6.5 The K-line of Bitcoin is too strong, and BNB has also broken through the new high. This round is a slow bull market, which has been rising. Bitcoin ecosystem runes/brc20 followed the rise, and the outbreak period has not yet arrived. BTC ETF funds have started to flow in again. The bull market continues.
2024.5.10 Based on the employment data of the United States in the past two weeks, it can be basically judged that the economic landing has begun. There is a high probability of a mild economic recession, and a low probability of an economic black swan; wait for the implementation of the interest rate cut. | Lose small money to make big money; 1. The opportunity to make small money is used for trial and error learning, and do not get entangled; 2. The opportunity to make big money is to focus on execution. Trade what u see
The MA120 that has been mentioned repeatedly for some time has been supported, and the rebound strength is good, but it has not yet constituted a reversal! The subsequent market situation is still to be seen one step at a time. The Bitcoin ecosystem can be adjusted back and cooled down.
Looking ahead to the fundamentals: From the various employment data this week, some recession factors have finally been revealed; next, we can pay attention to the extent to which the unemployment rate rises, the extent to which the economy declines, whether a black swan will occur, and when interest rates will be cut; pay attention to risks before the interest rate cut is implemented! Looking for a crash opportunity before the US election in the fourth quarter and going all-in is the best strategy!
2024.5.1 New moon, MA120 has reached around 57,000. The negative line in April basically ate up the gains in March. The bull market correction will not exceed two months. Conclusion, around 57,000-60,000 is a correction and position building range. The bull market is not over.
“Speculation is not about working harder and being more successful. Fatty made more money in the past month than in the past two years. Is it because he worked harder this month? No, it’s because he was luckier and the market was giving him a chance. But if he hadn’t practiced for the past five years, he wouldn’t have caught the luckiest market. In this sense, speculation is very similar to studying. Studying hard for ten years is just for the final success. It’s just that in the battlefield of speculation, people get rich every day, and people have to endure temporary poverty every day.”
The electricity price is 0.45 RMB (the electricity price abroad is very expensive), and the pure electricity cost of Bitcoin mining is between 30,000 and 60,000 US dollars (excluding labor management costs, machine wear and tear, electricity price fluctuations, etc.).
Bitcoin Ecological Narrative Logic Narrative 1: BRC20 sector issues stablecoins and defi applications, which may drive the leading ordi/sats to grow 5-10 times. Narrative 2: ARC20 sector AVM is launched, Bitcoin L1 application is realized, and the leading atom/quark is promoted. Narrative 3: RUNES sector holds NFT airdrop tokens, leading RSIC and runestone. Narrative 4: RGB++ sector L2 application is realized, which drives the leading seal/nervape to explode.
Current market value ranking: BRC20 (about 2 billion)>RUNES (about 600 million)>ARC20 (about 100 million)>RGB++ (about 40 million)
The liquidity is very poor (the probability of war in the Middle East is increasing), and a small amount can bring it down; I don’t know if there is any black swan hidden behind it. Although the loss is huge, I still reduced my position by half.
The US stock market is going to pull back, the risk is increasing, and the financial environment risk is rising sharply. Can Bitcoin hold 61,000? The MA120 support below is around 54,000. The cryptocurrency bull market is still there, but it is just a short-term macro-environmental risk. A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall.
2024.4.15 Looking at the chart, it may be a box-shaped oscillation, with support around 61,000; if it falls below, it will be very bad, and the support of ma120 is around 54,000. Only when it breaks through 72,000 will there be a chance to make money. I will reduce my position a little after the rebound and wait and see whether it stabilizes.
War will have a short-term impact on the financial market, but it will also force the Fed to cut interest rates and release money. There will be a US election at the end of the year. Bitcoin has fallen for three consecutive days in the early morning, but it has not fallen below 61,000. However, the cottage industry has generally fallen back to last year's price. The 3x leverage in the market will die, and there should be bargain hunting. Don't panic.
2024.4.13 VIX volatility increases, gold price peaks in the short term, US stocks are pricing in the rate cut narrative, yes, the rate cut is a positive, and the expected rate cut is likely to re-price the market; Bitcoin's support is 61000, 65000, and the extreme pin position is 54000; in summary, the US election in the second half of the year, plus the rate cut, are two major positives, and Bitcoin's correction will not last too long.
RUNES ecosystem has the most capital inflow, Atomical ecosystem is still consolidating, and RGB++ ecosystem has just started and is doing well. Now, BRC20 leader and Bitcoin ecosystem originator Ordi seems to be undervalued, I see 300 dollars.
Bitcoin is 69,000, and the probability of breaking new highs is getting higher and higher. Wealth is a compensation for cognition. No one can help you get wealth, you can only rely on yourself. Bitcoin ecosystem is launched; Brc20/RUNES/Atomical/RGB++, just buy crazily.
The US employment is strong, and the people's lives are good. It will take time to cut interest rates and release money, and it may be after July. The quadrennial US election at the end of this year is a big boon to US stocks and Bitcoin. In summary, Bitcoin's correction will not be too deep or too long, and the bull market is still there. Continue to be optimistic about the Bitcoin ecosystem, the first asset seal on rgb++. ordi200 dollars, ckb explosion.
US stocks plummeted at the end of the trading day, something may happen. Bitcoin rebounded well, you can exit appropriately to avoid risks. Ordi is listed on US Coinbase futures. Of course, the bull market is still there.