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The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) is cleared to sell 69,000 $
BTC
- worth over $6B. How does this compare to past major Bitcoin sell-offs? Let’s break down the scale and potential impact 🧵👇
#BTC
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BTC
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Even at prices about 12% below ATH, #Bitcoin Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are still distributing, but at a slower rate. Yet, the 30-day percent change in LTH supply suggests that the rate of distribution has likely peaked, reaching extremes seen in previous cycles.
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#Bitcoin short-term demand momentum has continued to weaken. One key indicator: Hot Capital (capital revived over the last 7 days) has plunged 66.7% from its December 12 peak of $96.2B to $32.0B: https://glassno.de/4fUzAK1
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The Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis ($88k) remains a critical level for evaluating #Bitcoin price momentum. By utilizing the URPD metric, we can observe a lack of volume below the STH cost-basis, suggesting a decisive loss of this level could lead to further downside.
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#BTC Futures Open Interest (OI) shows declining speculative momentum. The mid-term trendline (30-day SMA) peaked and is now slightly declining, while the short-term trendline (7-day SMA) has fallen below it. This indicates that traders have been closing positions, in response to uncertain market conditions.
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Despite #Bitcoin's impressive rally last year, MVRV levels above 3.2 - the typical threshold for extreme euphoria - haven’t been reached this cycle. If #BTC were to reach this level, it would correspond to a price of ~$132K: https://glassno.de/4gFov0y
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