According to Cointelegraph, traders are expecting more substantial price fluctuations for Ether (ETH) compared to Bitcoin (BTC) due to upcoming macroeconomic events. Derive founder Nick Forster noted in an Oct. 2 analyst report that Ether's forward volatility is projected to spike between Oct. 25 and Nov. 8, coinciding with the United States presidential election on Nov. 5.
Forster emphasized that the US election could significantly impact ETH prices, particularly because of its connections to the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, which might face regulatory scrutiny depending on the elected president's stance on crypto. Derive data indicates a 68% chance of a price swing between -14% and +16% within three days after the election, with a 95% chance of a move ranging from -26% to +35%.
At the time of publication, ETH forward volatility stands at 76.6%, while BTC is at 69.8%. This suggests that traders expect significant movement during this period, with ETH appearing more sensitive to external events. Forster explained that traders seem more confident in Bitcoin's ability to withstand macro events, likely due to its established position as a digital store of value and its relatively less direct exposure to regulatory concerns compared to Ethereum.
With broader ecosystem concerns hinging on the US election outcome, traders are pricing in more extreme movements for ETH. Forster added that this data reflects traders' expectations for increased uncertainty as the election approaches. Currently, Ether is trading at $2,364, down 5.93% since Oct. 2. Despite the much-anticipated Ether ETF launch in July, the historical debut has not bolstered Ether's price.
