A parabolic ALT season wont happen in 2024.
Ignore the false hype, these are the facts.
1-BTC Dominance,
Bitcoin Dominance will not fall enough, this is where the institutional, store of value money is going.
2- VC Gains,
VC funded projects are killing the market, there is no good or fair entries for retail to invest and profit off new projects, we pay 50x more than early VC investors do, these VC profits do not flow back in the ALT market, most importantly they dilute liquidity.
3- New Tokens,
Since April we have had over 1 million new tokens introduced, this is utter madness and it dilutes liquidity in the market.
$150-$200 Million worth of new supply enters the market daily, if no new liquidity(investment) comes into the Crypto market to support this then these funds are sucked out of other ALT projects.
These projects dilute Crypto, it is exactly the same as governments printing money, we are just increasing the supply of tokens and to sustain it we need huge amounts of capital invested into crypto, currently all they do is dilute, devalue crypto.
4- The US interest rates,
This is one of the main factors that will determine how much money goes into the Crypto market in the coming year, we have already been priced in for 3 or 2 cuts in the last month and ALT season didnt start, now its down to 1, even at 2 cuts it wont support ALT season.
5- Centralised AI ,
As the AI goldrush booms, many large crypto mining or network securing projects are diversifying or switching to use their computing power for centralised AI as the gains are far greater(for now), as this happens many of these firms reduce their crypto holdings and in doing so create sell pressure on the market.
While all of these factors effect Crypto as a whole, the lower cap ALTS will be effected the most as institutional money will still invest in high cap protects like BTC, ETH, SOL and others.
Many ALTS could still see good gains in the coming months but have realistic expectations, dont be fooled by get rich quick ideas.
Peace