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Why FOMC Meeting Is Most Important In Years FOR Crypto Market
For conventional finance and crypto markets, which are increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic signals, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today (2 pm ET) is crucial. An in-depth study of alternative outcomes and their effects on X by noted financial adviser Kurt S. Altrichter provides a path for market players.
Altrichter says markets have demonstrated resilience despite a drop in rate reduction forecasts from six at the start of the year to one by year's end. This is because investors expect the next Federal Reserve decrease, not a rise. The crypto market has been in a delicate balance, initially seemingly unaffected by the consequences, now investors are watching the macro situation intently.
FOMC Preview: Crypto Market Reaction?
Expected Situation: The FOMC might confirm predictions that rates would be lowered under the ‘Expected Scenario,’ according to Altrichter. He describes the potential effects of this scenario: The rally continues. While not a major positive factor, the Fed's rate rise pause could benefit equities, Altrichter said.
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He expects the S&P 500 to rise by less than 1%, government rates to fall by fewer than 10 basis points, and the dollar to fall. As the perceived danger of tighter monetary policy decreases, the crypto market may stabilize or improve.
Hawkish Scenario: Market bulls worry about a 'Hawkish Scenario,' when the Fed raises rates due to inflation. Altrichter warns: “If J-Powell upgrades the inflation statement or says rate hikes are still being considered, SPX would drop hard by more than 1%, and all 11 SPDRs should be lower, with defensive stocks outperforming.”
This might raise government rates by 10–20 basis points and boost the dollar to 107. Rate hikes usually cause investors to flee high-risk assets like cryptocurrency.
