Moody's Expected to Upgrade Turkey's Credit Outlook. 🇹🇷🔝🆙

Moody's, a prominent credit rating agency, is poised to make a significant announcement regarding Turkey's credit outlook on January 12, 2024. While the credit rating is expected to remain at "B3," there's a buzz about a potential upgrade in the outlook from "stable" to "positive."

A recent survey conducted indicates a prevailing optimism among economists, with 10 out of 13 predicting a positive outlook. Furthermore, five analysts foresee an upgrade from the current "B3" rating to "B2." This speculation follows Moody's last adjustment in August 2022 when the credit rating was downgraded from 'B2' to 'B3' with a revised "stable" outlook.

▪️Analyst Predictions:

The absence of a December 15 report in 2023 has heightened the anticipation for Moody's upcoming evaluation. Analysts point to sustained tight monetary policy and inflation-targeted wage agreements as factors contributing to the potential shift from a "stable" to a "positive" outlook.

▪️Other Rating Agencies:

While Moody's is set to reveal its assessment on January 12, Fitch and CI Ratings have scheduled their reports for March 8, 2024, and September 6, 2024, respectively. Notably, S&P Global upgraded Turkey's outlook from "stable" to "positive" on November 30, 2023.

▪️Economic Indicators:

Economic indicators, such as Turkey's Treasury's cash deficit, have witnessed a staggering increase from 169.4 billion TL in 2022 to a record-breaking 625.5 billion TL in 2023. Concerns about rising cash deficits are influencing Moody's assessments, adding complexity to the upcoming announcement.

▪️Public Sentiment:

Public sentiment surrounding the potential credit outlook upgrade is a mix of skepticism and frustration. Concerns about economic policies and their impact on retirees are prevalent, with some expressing skepticism about the credibility of credit rating agencies. These sentiments reflect broader economic apprehensions.

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