All ETFs are selling! Is a big one coming?

Yesterday's data showed that the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 218 million US dollars in a single day, and Grayscale alone sold more than 2,100 BTC. BlackRock, which has been buying for a record 71 days, rarely made no purchases for two consecutive days. So far, the Bitcoin spot ETF has been in a net outflow state for two consecutive days, and Grayscale's historical net outflow has reached 17.102 billion US dollars.

Why is this data a signal? Since the launch of the ETF in January, whenever there has been a net outflow for more than two days, the price of Bitcoin has been on the decline, whether it is the plunge in mid-March or April 13 and April 14.

Second, other ETFs that were still buying yesterday have turned into shorts today. ARKB FBTC and other ETFs in the third and fourth positions are all in an outflow state. Only Franklin is in a buying state among the eleven, which also indirectly confirms the possibility of operations for short-term and future market uncertainties.

Third, today is Friday, and it will be a holiday soon. It is the last day for the US stock market to open. Everyone has seen the market situation. No one can escape the high point. Next is the closing of the monthly line. At this position at the end of the month, the downward space must be greater than the upward space. After the seven consecutive positive monthly lines, this negative closing line will have greater strategic significance and will better promote the future market.

In short, everyone has come to the end of April. Don't mess up because of the short-term correction. $BTC $ETH $BNB

If nothing unexpected happens, this will be the first 100x coin this year!

Let me talk about some data, which is the fundamentals that everyone likes to mention: 150 million in circulation, 1 billion in total, one of the leaders in the AI ​​sector, Ultraman Investment, Panlantir and Open AI jointly support, Davis double-click, no need to calculate full circulation, in fact, there is no need to do so, it is still undervalued.

Let's talk about the news. GPT5 may be released in the summer, ARKM will continue to receive good news, and now the price of 2.2 has risen from the bottom to 2+. It is not surprising that the long-term bull market will reach 20 dollars, the so-called 100x coin.

Let's talk about the final technical aspect: after the weekly arc cup handle is completed, the main force has liberated all the locked-in plates, the light boat has passed through thousands of mountains, and the healthy advantages of chip distribution have gradually emerged. Let's look forward to it together. $ARKM $FET $WLD

If nothing unexpected happens, these coins will hit new highs first!

All breakthroughs that are not aimed at new highs are rogue.

There are a few simple criteria for judging whether the coin you bought can outperform BTC, or take advantage of the trend to create a new high in this round in a one-sided market.

The first point is whether it did not reach the previous low in the decline at the end of April, and did not touch the lead position of 4.13 and 4.14.

The second point is that the rebound is fast and not short-lived. It can still maintain strength after Bitcoin weakens, and the decline is smaller than BTC.

The third point is that there are large investors who have bought recently and exchanged hands to achieve the purpose of washing the market, and there is no large amount of unlocking and other behaviors to leave hidden dangers for subsequent pull-ups.

In summary, some currencies are given for your reference: AR, PEPE, NEAR, BNB, ARKM, WIF, etc. $NEAR $AR $PEPE

Grayscale leads the buying! A reversal of the general trend?

The data of ETFs on May 3rd came out. After more than 70 days of smashing Bitcoin, Grayscale ushered in a net inflow for the first time, reaching 63 million US dollars. Other ETFs are not to be outdone, all in a net inflow state, with a total inflow of 370 million US dollars.

Since touching the 120-day moving average on May 1, it can be said that it has ushered in a strong rebound. Especially yesterday, all ETFs were in an inflow state. In fact, it is not difficult to see that this may be some potential signals, which is extremely good from the perspective of capital and confidence recovery. #BTC

In fact, more often the trading status of ETFs is more market-oriented. When the market is hot, it adds fuel to the fire. When the market is calm, it smashes a cooling period. The trading volume is similar to the market. Compared with the high point of Bitcoin price in mid-March, the trading volume has decreased by 70%, but it also means that the reversal of the cycle level may begin. $BTC $ETH $BNB

I don’t know if you have read this story.

A 21-year-old young man from Wangzhe Tongtian era has known his long-distance girlfriend for two and a half years and has transferred more than 510,000 yuan to her. It takes half an hour to order takeout to save 50 cents. The girl not only cheated on her, but also used cold violence and did not reply to the boy’s message at the last moment.

Before jumping into the river, the boy transferred the remaining money to the girl with the note of voluntary gift, and ended his life from then on. Even the last flowers he sent to her were sent anonymously, and the price was the 780 days they were together, the anniversary of their love, and she might not even know it.

I don’t want to say anything else today. From yesterday to today, under the Yangtze River Bridge in Chongqing, there are all the takeouts you love the most but dare not order. No matter which field, they are sending you the last journey. I hope you will have someone to love in your next life, and I hope that you will love yourself first in your next life!

Is it the bottom? ? Orders have been placed at this position!

Let me just say my opinion. Bitcoin and other currencies have not yet bottomed out. Looking at the history of a single-day or three-day decline of more than 10%, it basically requires a long lower lead to declare the bottom. The buying below the long army and the closing action have not been completed, so it is more likely that the bottom has not yet been reached.

From the perspective of sentiment and volume, the panic selling after falling below 60,000 has not been fully released. Even though the low point has reached 65,000 US dollars, the liquidity on the four-hour line is not strong, especially many altcoins can no longer fall, there is no buying and selling, and most of them are in a flat state after being cut in half. The big cake falls a few points, and they fall a few points.

After breaking the big trend line, the entire daily level bottoming needs several downward explorations and stabilization to declare the end. So our current position, if you are a left-side trader, you can refer to the position around 5.4w, and then buy when it falls. For Ethereum, my reference price, or the completed order point, is 2540, referring to the bottom of the daily level channel. #eth

Finally, I want to tell my friends that whether it is the short-term bearishness we mentioned recently, or catching Ethereum, laying out its ecological op ssv, etc., they are all being verified one by one. Investment is risky, this article does not constitute any investment advice, please do not participate in any investment and products. $BTC $ETH $BNB

Breaking news: CZ is sentenced to four months in prison!

I feel relieved. It's a small benefit. $BNB

Eigenlayer is the reason for success and failure!

Today, the Restaking track of Ethereum welcomes the launch of the largest project. EigenLayer officially released a tweet that it will launch the "EIGEN" token on May 10 and make the airdrop details public. As soon as the news was released, Pendle, SSV and other currencies in the sector fell sharply, with a drop of about 20 points. In fact, it is not difficult to analyze the reasons as follows:

1. Eigen will launch the token on May 10 and conduct the first airdrop, which is consistent with our expected time node, but what we didn't expect is that the snapshot date he stipulated is March 15, which will result in a large number of investors who entered the market later such as PENDLE. The first thing they will do is definitely to redeem the stakes in their hands, causing a sharp drop in TVL and triggering a chain reaction of plummeting. #pendle

2. Since the launch of PENDLE, it can be said that it has reached a level close to the leader of the track. Whether it is TVL or market value, it is the best target in the Restaking sector. However, in EIGEN's token distribution model, PENDLE was not given enough trust, which seriously affected PENDLE's valuation, so it was very obvious in the coin price.

3. In EIGEN's points rules, the points earned by LRT tracks such as ETHFI and the newly launched RENZO were postponed to the second time, which also caused LRT currencies such as YT, RENZO, ETHFI in Pendle to be affected by short selling. #ethfi

4. Eigen's FDV is estimated to have reached an astonishing 30 billion US dollars. The launch of such a huge project can be said to be a huge impact on the market. If all investors and whales in the industry cannot obtain enough tokens to meet expectations, it will bring unprecedented selling pressure. When a project of this scale is launched, if the hype and revenue do not meet expectations, it will definitely cause a stampede of magnitude.

Although PENDLE and other coins are affected by the points system, Restaking is not the whole of this project, nor is it the whole of SSV. It takes a lot of time for a new track to be born, heated up and finally glorious. Let us continue to pay attention to this new track that has emerged this year! $PENDLE $SSV $ETHFI

Maybe it's a new starting point... $BTC $ETH

The day-long ETH bull market is over.

Don't be pessimistic, and don't be bearish as soon as it falls. Let's look at the potential trend of ETH from several angles.

First of all, pay attention to a very intuitive data. The total amount of Ethereum in the exchange has reached a new low this year, which means that the coins in the exchange are constantly being withdrawn.

As of 3 pm on the 29th, many whales including Justin Sun still bought ETH at $3,200, and institutions and investors chose to transfer Ethereum in the exchange account to the wallet, which also indirectly led to a continuous decrease in the amount of coins in the exchange, triggering potential price increases from the liquidity.

Second, the Ethereum network gas fee fell to a new low in 6 months, and the average handling fee level has dropped to only $1.12 per transaction, which is the lowest daily average cost since October 18, 2023. #eth #ETH

After the ERC404 that exploded in February, there was no decent network activity on Ethereum. In the past two months, due to market retracement and reduced demand, the GAS fee has reached a new low, which may also be a node of cycle conversion, representing the beginning of a possible rebound of ETH and related altcoins.

In fact, from the independent trend of Ethereum in the past two days, it can be seen that Ethereum's strong momentum still exists, and the above data also means that more investors will bet on Ethereum, thus realizing a new rising market. However, whether this market can come as expected, we need to see not only whether BTC's decline can be reversed, but also whether the momentum of the bulls can be driven. If possible, I hope that Ethereum can be stronger. $ETH

RSI Correction Countdown to the Ascension of Ethereum! ?

After five days of consolidation at the daily level, Bitcoin rebounded. As of press time, the price of Ethereum has reached 3,320 US dollars. Judging from the RSI, most of the cottages have completed the correction after staying in the oversold area for a few days and returned to the average level. If the leading rise of Ethereum in the past two days has gone out of the independent market, then the cottages including L2 may have a short-term outbreak.

In the last round of bull market, there were many currencies that doubled 10-50 times, and this round seems to have blurred the concept of 100-fold coins. The current cottage market is already a trillion-dollar scale, but the enthusiasm is not as high as that of the past. Even the much-criticized L2 and EVM have made many people lose confidence in the middle of the bull market.

In fact, whether it is ETH's L2 or Bitcoin's L2, the advantages and disadvantages are very obvious. Recently, it is intuitively felt that the shortcomings of L2 have been infinitely magnified. Whether it is the linear unlocked OP, ARB or the recently launched MERLIN on OKX, they all face the same problem, that is, how can the unlocking after staking convince the market and raise the diluted expectations again. #op

In the bull market where projects are constantly increasing, the scale of altcoins will only grow larger and larger, and the funds of retail investors and investors will become more and more concentrated. Although the altcoin season will eventually come, the high multiple expectations of the altcoin season should also be lowered, especially for those projects that are constantly unlocking and increasing too quickly in the bull market. The gradual increase in FDV will make them lose some potential momentum, which will dilute a certain increase in price. We have realized this from the overall bull market process, so whether the L2 currency can solve these problems well is the key to the subsequent coin price. $OP $ARB $METIS

Why are big funds entering the Ethereum market! ?

After whales such as Sun Ge continued to buy Ethereum, this morning there was explosive news that the Ethereum ETF applied by Franklin Templeton has been listed on the website of the US securities company DTCC, with the code EZET (note that it is ETF rather than other so-called trusts).

We should know that in the announcement previously issued by DTCC, it was emphasized that the practice of adding securities to the list of qualification documents is to prepare for the launch of new ETFs to the market, and does not represent the result of the approval process. But even so, we should pay more attention to the recovery of market confidence and the replenishment of sentiment on the news side.

It is a simple truth that whether the Ethereum ETF is passed in May or December, or next year or when, it is Ethereum. Just these three words are enough to occupy a large share of the Crypto market, which is a height that no project other than the big cake can reach. #eth

Some people may ask, what about the funds, on-chain data, and activity in SOL? In my sharing last year, I mentioned an idea that in the early stage of the bull market, we should give priority to projects with the US ecological background, because they will be the priority of the leading funds, and SOL and AVAX will surely usher in the explosion first.

Now, we have come to the mid-term stage of the bull market, and the flow of funds that have made a lot of money in the early stage and the subsequent hype content are the directions we should pay more attention to. After the Ethereum exchange rate has bottomed out and strengthened, it is not difficult to find in the recent operations of whales that this is an open entry, and it is also the main choice we will make during this period. $ETH $SOL

What is more terrible than the decline is that the bullish expectations are gone!

As of press time, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating at 64,000 US dollars. Yesterday, the intraday decline reached 3%, and the volume fell through the 67,000 position that has not been stabilized. If it cannot effectively rebound to around 66,000, it is very likely to continue to decline.

In fact, what is more terrible than the retracement is that the decline last night may make many bullish expectations lower, which means that whether it is copy trading or short-term traders, they will lose the patience and buying volume of these people.

In other words, if there is no more incremental capital entering, deliberate declines like yesterday may still exist. Since the ETF in January, the expectations of halving and so on have been implemented. The general trend is of course upward, but the short-term is not optimistic. Yesterday, the net outflow of ETFs reached 120 million US dollars, and IBIT and others did not continue to buy. Today, we still need to continue to observe this data.

In addition to clearing the long leverage since the 6w rebound, BTC has closed 5 consecutive daily positive lines, and the upward trend has turned into a four-hour level consolidation. These were mentioned in the recent live broadcast, which means that the trend of short-term correction has been confirmed, and the most critical support below is still 6w US dollars. $BTC $ETH $BNB

FOMO may cause you to go long or short!

In the rebound of the past two days, I heard my friends say that they did not enter the short position, but in the mood of chasing the rise of fomo, they opened short positions in retaliation (short ETH today), and then they were trapped. They could neither go long nor short. #ETH

In fact, this retaliatory operation behavior will bring larger and heavier profit drawdowns. The high-risk preference caused by FOMO (fear of missing out) will make us invest more capital in transactions with a very low profit-loss ratio.

For cryptocurrencies, mentality is the cornerstone of everything. If there is no way to treat every transaction calmly, it is very likely that the chips will be taken away in the short-term extreme market.

If this scam extends to the primary market, it will cause greater harm to investors. Their strategy is very similar to the scams observed in other cryptocurrency platforms, including the use of social engineering platforms such as Telegram, Twitter and Discord to trick users into interacting with malicious addresses or websites.

The new wave of meme coins and the possibility of quick profits in market fluctuations further exacerbate the vulnerability of inexperienced and novice users to these scams.

Including February and March of this year, the acceptance of pre-sale tokens on the SOL chain has increased significantly, rapidly increasing from dozens to hundreds. This surge is driven by the exponential growth of legitimate meme coins, but at the same time, Solana's ecosystem may lack sufficient security measures, essentially making it vulnerable to scammers. There are many more ways to lose money in the cryptocurrency circle than to make money, so fomo is fomo, don't be confused in your mentality to protect your wealth. $BTC $ETH $BNB

What can be bought in the ETH ecosystem!

As we all know, Justin Sun has recently purchased more than 400 million US dollars worth of ETH through various exchanges since April, and the average purchase price has reached 3,173 US dollars. What we want to express is that even if Sun can cut, he can also make money, and the layout of Mingpai is also worthy of our attention.

YiDAO lists Ethereum and ecological applications here, hoping to encourage everyone:

ETH Ecosystem $ETH #ETH
1. ETH! ETH! ETH! Say it three times
2. Re-staking: PENDLE, ALT, ETHFI (LSD+Restaking like PENDLE can still be deployed)
3. Staking: SSV, LDO (both are innovating)
4. DEFI: SUSHI, AAVE, COMP, CRV (do not consider UNI and DYDX and other dex exchanges for now, sushi is reserved)
5. DEFI+RWA: MKR, SNX
6. L2: OP (choose only OP! Because it is most critical to the price of Ethereum)
7. Distributed domain name: ENS

Grayscale's final compromise! Is the market pull-up starting?

On the evening of April 20, Grayscale revealed some details of its spin-off fund Mini BTC in the latest document, including a management fee rate of 0.15%. It can be said that it finally reduced its fee rate after GBTC was listed, completing the compromise with the overall foundation and investors.

In fact, Grayscale launched Bitcoin Mini Trust to provide GBTC investors with a low-cost option with a more competitive fee rate, and the reduction in fees is undoubtedly also to respond to other Bitcoin ETF products approved in January. (0.15% is lower than any ETF)

Since the approval of BTC's spot ETF in January, the trading days have reached more than three months, and in addition to Grayscale's continuous selling, the biggest highlight, or what we should pay more attention to, is the crazy buying of BlackRock IBIT.

BlackRock's IShares IBIT has completed 69 consecutive days of net inflows. If it buys one more day, it can tie the record of airline JETS and enter the top ten in history. Under such a terrifying dominance, we can see the growing interest in the BlackRock BTC ETF market and the overall adoption of this largest Crypto asset. #灰度

Currently, Grayscale's BTC holdings are still 300,000 pieces, ranking first, but if the momentum continues, if the selling pressure continues, IBIT will surpass Grayscale (IBIT already has 270,000+ pieces) within a month and become the largest holding company. At that time, the entire cryptocurrency ETF fund structure will also face a new transformation. Let's wait and see! $BTC $ETH $BNB

Has Bitcoin stabilized?

Can we enter the market now?

Which one should we buy first among the copycats?

Can Ethereum return to 4,000?

Some of the most frequently asked questions in recent days

Share my personal views and opinions with you:

After Bitcoin returns to 66,000 US dollars, it can be declared that if you still want to wait for the so-called big cake starting with 5, you will not see it in the short term at 5.7 or 5.9.

However, the MA20 moving average is a dividing point, or an important indicator. If the MA20 daily line can stand firm, which is also the MA99 of the four-hour line, then the big cake is expected to continue to rise in the next two days, with a target of around 69,000 US dollars.

So what we need to pay attention to is the position of 66,500 US dollars. There is no need to be pessimistic or overly optimistic. There will still be fluctuations at an important suppression position in the early stage. The consolidation after the previous halvings also shows that it takes time to change the market. (Volatile market turns to unilateral market)

For altcoins, it is necessary to cover positions at low prices. Based on the low point of the 414 pin, set pending orders in batches, add positions according to personal positions, and prioritize the layout of leading stocks and new tracks. #btc

Finally, I want to say that whether Ethereum's ETF will be passed this year, ETH is the best in the altcoins. In every bull market, there are countless projects that look forward to defeating Ethereum. In every bull market, Ethereum is the king of altcoins. Be patient and wait. See you at Ethereum $9200!

Why run away if the copycat doesn't have a 10-fold return! ?

Today I want to talk about a coin called AR. In January, the square called on everyone to layout (GRT OCEAN AGIX ARKM, etc., as shown in the figure) with a cost price of just over 8 US dollars. Even if this wave of copycat callbacks is so fierce, the current price of 34 US dollars is still more than 4 times the profit.

As you can see in the figure, there were very few followers of the spot recommendation posts at that time, and there was no high traffic from any complaints or market analysis of the day. But we still insist on doing this. Spot profit is not the logic of buying today and rising tomorrow. After you have selected the currency, you must build a position, cover your position, and hold it patiently. These are all indispensable.

Just like AR, after experiencing a 5-fold increase, it retreated, and a lot of bad news was released. Some said that AO was completely independent and AR was going to be abandoned, and some said that the dealer was obviously shipping and was going to run away. In this mood, I still covered my position when it fell back to 23-25, and the current return is still at least 3-4 times the bottom. (At the same time, multiple contract operations were repeatedly performed as shown in the picture)

Cryptocurrency trading is a test of human nature and mentality. If you only chase the rise and short-term, you are destined to not be able to reap bigger and more comprehensive profits. If you look at the problem in the long term, you will find that some trading operations are completely redundant. #AR

In the future, we will continue to lay out more spot and mid-term cryptocurrencies. Come on, friends! $AR $GRT $ARKM

Newly included tracks have the greatest opportunities!

Today I will tell you a little tip when choosing a currency. I will pay attention to some information websites, such as feixiaohao. The new track content they update will be a good choice.

For example, you will find that there are more sections such as Bitcoin Layer2 and Restaking recently. These two are also hot spots that have been repeatedly hyped this year, but they have not yet ushered in a big explosion. We choose the leader from these currencies to enter.

If you can cooperate with the changes in the currency holding addresses and capital flows on the chain, you can better choose the concepts that are about to explode. For example, the previously recommended SOL ecology, BASE chain, etc. are all based on the conclusions given by these two points.

The development of a new ecology must take time, and the Bitcoin halving has been completed. Let us look forward to greater things! $BTC $ETH $BNB

Why war will not affect the crypto market!

Affected by the news of war in the morning, the price of Bitcoin fell below the 60,000 US dollar mark again, and rebounded instantly after the pin. As of press time, the price returned to around 64,000 US dollars. These two days have shown one of my own views that war will indeed affect the economic systems of various countries, but it has little impact on the bull market of cryptocurrencies.

Why are you so sure? First of all, if wars are frequent and investors' risk aversion increases, more people will be willing to exchange their chips for gold or cryptocurrencies. For example, in the Israeli Hamas conflict, the Israeli government launched a cryptocurrency rescue platform and a youth foundation, allowing people from all over the world to help Israelis affected by the war through Crypto. And between countries, the most transactions are also using cryptocurrencies such as BTC.

Secondly, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has continued in the past two years, but will you find that the market reaction is affected by this war? Obviously not. Cryptocurrencies are more about hyping expectations, and for war, they use news to wash the market before and after the halving. What is the best bad news? It is nothing more than war.

Although we cannot underestimate the impact of political conflicts and regulatory environment on the crypto industry, generally speaking, these impacts are short-lived, and the bull market will continue to explode after market fluctuations.