The recent resolution of political uncertainty in the U.S. has positively impacted the cryptocurrency market, as evidenced by the surge in the Coinbase Premium Index. Following Donald Trump's election victory, Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high, driven by increased buying activity from U.S. investors. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference of Bitcoin between Coinbase and other exchanges, has moved into positive territory, currently standing at 0.18. This indicates that Bitcoin is approximately $142 more expensive on Coinbase compared to Binance, highlighting strong buying pressure from U.S. investors.

Binance Open Interest (OI) has reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $8.3 billion, marking a 10.24% increase in the past 24 hours. This significant growth positions Binance as a major player, accounting for approximately 35% of global futures positions, with total OI across all exchanges at $23.3 billion.

Monitoring Binance's on-chain data is essential for gaining insights into market trends. The recent ATH in OI suggests potential market volatility. A sharp increase in OI, especially over 3% within a day, often indicates forthcoming liquidations in the futures market.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial for anticipating major market movements and preparing for potential volatility.

Bitcoin's current MVRV metric indicates that the cryptocurrency has not yet reached an overheating phase, suggesting further upside potential. The MVRV, a crucial onchain metric, helps assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. As the market cycle advances, the rate of increase typically slows due to rising market capitalization. Historically, the market tends to overheat when the MVRV value approaches 3. This analysis underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin, highlighting its potential for growth while acknowledging the natural deceleration in its upward trajectory.

Ethereum's recent approach toward the $2.5K resistance has fueled investor optimism, hinting at a potential bullish rally. Key futures market indicators, including open interest and funding rates, offer insights into trader sentiment and engagement levels.

Data reveals that both open interest and funding rates have risen during this uptrend, surpassing previous months' figures. This uptick indicates increased participation and a bullish outlook among futures traders. While robust participation is crucial for a sustained bull market, excessive optimism can introduce risks.

Currently, open interest and funding rates remain at manageable levels, suggesting further growth potential without immediate danger. However, a sudden surge in these metrics could lead to increased volatility and the risk of a long liquidation cascade, potentially causing a rapid price decline.

Investors should remain cautious in the short term, closely monitoring these indicators and managing risk to navigate potential volatility effectively.

**Market Analysis: Bitcoin's Upward Trend Supported by MVRV Indicator**

As we approach November, market participants are feeling a mix of anxiety and optimism. A traditional analytical approach, particularly in a market influenced by macroeconomic factors, can provide clarity.

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator is a key tool in assessing Bitcoin's value. Currently, the MVRV stands at around 2, indicating the market's surface value is twice the on-chain estimated value. However, the focus should be on trend-based judgment rather than absolute values.

Using the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV and the 4-year average, which typically reflects Bitcoin's cycle, we observe that the MVRV is above this average and has recently surpassed the 365-day average. This suggests that the upward trend remains intact. Historically, cycle peaks occur when MVRV levels reach between 3 and 3.6.

Assuming the Realized Value (RV) remains constant, a 43-77% increase is necessary, translating to a Bitcoin target of $95k to $120k. As the market rises with new buying interest, the RV is likely to increase, potentially forming a peak above these levels, considering previous cycles.

Despite significant gains over the past year, Bitcoin has only returned to the average level on the MVRV indicator, maintaining its upward momentum.

Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) has emerged as a potent strategy for achieving significant returns across various time horizons. By analyzing Bitcoin's average price in relation to its short-term realized price (spanning 1 week to 1 month), investors can identify optimal buying opportunities.

This approach, when integrated with a comprehensive understanding of broader market trends and sentiment, provides critical insights for making informed investment decisions. The data underscores the potential of DCA in navigating market fluctuations and capitalizing on favorable conditions, reinforcing a positive outlook for the cryptocurrency market.

On October 29th, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,620 on Binance, setting a record in open interest. However, Bitcoin has since retreated from the $70K level, indicating a potential short-term correction phase for both price and open interest.

Realized Price - UTXO Age Bands data reveals that the average acquisition cost for participants who bought Bitcoin within the past week is between $69,549 and $70,733. Should the price correct further to the $63K-$66K range, we may observe profit-taking by buyers at lower levels and potential panic selling from recent high-level buyers.

In the coming days, identifying the support level will be crucial for understanding the market's potential trajectory.

Network difficulty and hashrate have reached new highs, signaling a significant shift in the blockchain landscape. As difficulty increases, the computational power required to process transactions also rises, leading to higher mining costs. This surge in difficulty is accompanied by Bitcoin's increasing value, which has intensified mining competition. While this competition underscores the robustness of the network, it also presents challenges. Without adequate transaction fees to offset these rising costs, miners may face sustainability issues. However, the overall market outlook remains optimistic, driven by Bitcoin's value appreciation and the resilience of the mining ecosystem.

Coinbase Premium Index has reached a significant resistance line. Despite a recent price decline, the index continues to show upward momentum. Monitoring its reaction to this trend line is crucial for predicting future price movements.

The open interest indicator's resistance line now acts as support, indicating positive market sentiment. This shift suggests a potential for price stabilization and growth.

In my analysis, I have identified two key zones for potential price increases: the 0.5 range zone and the range low manipulation zone. These areas are critical for anticipating upward trends.

Additionally, the funding rate indicator remains stable, and the previously bullish community is gradually turning bearish. This shift supports a bullish scenario, as it often precedes market corrections and subsequent growth.

**TON Network Sees 670% Surge in USDT Holdings Over Six Months**

The stablecoin market is experiencing rapid growth, presenting significant opportunities for emerging blockchain networks. Stablecoins, such as USDT, are increasingly used for various transactions globally, including cross-border and personal payments. Notably, around 10% of commercial transactions in South Korea utilize USDT. The TON blockchain has emerged as a strong contender in this space due to its low transaction costs and high speed.

In May 2024, the TON blockchain held $130 million worth of USDT. Over the next six months, this amount surged by 670%, reaching $1.02 billion. This substantial increase highlights a growing preference for TON among users, positioning it as a notable player in the stablecoin ecosystem.

One of the key drivers behind this growth is the decreasing transaction fees on the TON network. In June 2024, the median transaction fee was $0.061, which decreased to $0.035 by October. This reduction in fees has made TON an attractive option for users, significantly contributing to its rapid adoption.

The supply of USDT has reached $120 billion, becoming a major force in the market. Looking ahead, it is expected that the USDT supply could expand to $200 billion during the next bull rally. This growth is likely to drive further demand for fast and low-cost blockchain networks like TON, leading to continued growth in the amount of USDT on the TON network.

As the stablecoin ecosystem accelerates the adoption of blockchain technology, TON is well-positioned to expand its share in this space by offering robust infrastructure and competitive advantages.

On October 29, $1.0 billion USDT was minted on the TRON network, marking the 14th issuance this year. This significant event has increased the total supply of USDT on TRON from approximately $48.8 billion to around $62.8 billion.

This substantial growth in USDT supply on TRON highlights the increasing demand and adoption of stablecoins within the blockchain ecosystem. The continuous issuance of USDT indicates a robust market sentiment and growing confidence in TRON's network capabilities.

As the market evolves, the expansion of USDT on TRON could play a pivotal role in enhancing liquidity and facilitating seamless transactions across the blockchain space.

Recent data analysis reveals a notable shift in user behavior on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). At the beginning of the year, Payment Transactions constituted approximately 88% of all transactions, while OfferCreate Transactions accounted for only 12%. Currently, these figures have equalized, with each type representing 50% of the total transactions.

This change signifies a transformation in user interaction with the XRPL. The increase in OfferCreate transactions indicates heightened trading activity, suggesting a growing interest in the platform's capabilities for issuing new assets and adopting decentralized exchange (DEX) features.

Overall, this trend reflects a broader adoption of the XRP Ledger for more complex financial strategies, moving beyond simple payment transactions. This development is a positive indicator of the platform's evolving utility and user engagement.

Recent data analysis reveals a notable shift in user behavior on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). At the beginning of the year, Payment Transactions constituted approximately 88% of all transactions, with OfferCreate Transactions making up the remaining 12%. Currently, these figures have equalized, with each type representing 50% of the transactions.

This change signifies a transformation in user interaction with the XRPL. The rise in OfferCreate transactions indicates increased trading activity, suggesting a growing interest in the platform's capabilities for issuing new assets and utilizing decentralized exchange (DEX) features.

This trend reflects a broader adoption of the XRP Ledger for more complex strategies beyond simple payments, highlighting the platform's evolving utility and the market's optimistic outlook.

Next week, November 6th, will mark the two-year anniversary of the FTX exchange collapse, a significant event in cryptocurrency history. The collapse underscored the critical importance of exchanges maintaining adequate reserves to cover user funds. Consequently, exchanges are now expected to provide Proof-of-Reserves (PoR) to allow stakeholders to verify the actual holdings.

Among the top exchanges by total Bitcoin reserves, Coinbase remains the only one that does not provide a public PoR report. In contrast, other major exchanges offer periodic PoR reports with varying levels of transparency. For instance, Binance provides a comprehensive PoR that includes making on-chain addresses publicly available for verification of cryptocurrency holdings (Proof-of-Assets, PoA). Additionally, users can verify that their account balances are included in the exchange's liability calculations. Binance's report also encompasses assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, enhancing industry trust and transparency.

Notably, Binance's Bitcoin reserves have increased by 28k Bitcoin, or 5%, to 611k Bitcoin, despite regulatory pressures from US authorities in 2023. Furthermore, Binance has experienced the lowest reserve drawdowns among major exchanges, never exceeding 16%.

Since the FTX collapse in November 2022, only Bitfinex and Binance have seen growth in their Bitcoin reserves among major exchanges. This trend highlights the resilience and trust these exchanges have built within the market.

Written by CQ Research

The UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio Model is a crucial tool for analyzing Bitcoin's price cycles and the profit/loss balance among market participants. This model provides valuable insights into market health and potential price reversals by examining the moving averages of Bitcoin's profitability and loss ratios, thereby revealing their relationship with price movements.

The model utilizes moving averages for short (7-day), medium (30-day), and long (365-day) terms to reflect periodic trends in profit and loss. These averages help clarify the impact of price movements on the profit/loss balance, offering different perspectives for long-term investors and short-term speculators.

Historical trends, indicated by white squares on the chart, show a decline in profitability ratios over the years. This suggests that short- and medium-term trading strategies are becoming increasingly relevant. Notably, if the 30-day profit and loss ratio surpasses the 365-day moving average, it could signal the formation of a new peak.

Despite varying economic conditions between 2021 and 2022, there is a possibility that the profit and loss ratio will use the annual average as a resistance point for a new peak. If the profit and loss average remains above the annual average, the likelihood of seeing new highs could increase, indicating a positive outlook for the market.

Recent analysis indicates an imminent futures-led price increase in the cryptocurrency market. Since September, there has been a notable surge in buying pressure, particularly in the Binance futures market. This trend is evident in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting a broader market movement.

The data shows the strongest buying pressure since last September, reinforcing the analysis. This consistent pattern across major cryptocurrencies provides a solid foundation for a positive market outlook. Investors should closely monitor these developments, as they may signal significant opportunities in the near future.

TRON Network has been regaining popularity, as evidenced by its increasing share of total transactions across major altcoin blockchains. Recently, TRON has emerged as the leading alt-chain for transaction processing. On October 30th alone, it handled 43% of transactions across major alt-chains.

In October, TRON processed 230 million transactions, with a notable spike on October 24th, reaching 10.46 million transactions—approximately 25% above the 30-day moving average. This resurgence aligns with earlier activity in 2024, where TRON frequently led in transaction volume.

Despite a slight dip in dominance from August 25th to October 5th, TRON's transaction dominance is back on track. Given historical trends, it is likely to remain the most popular chain among altcoins.

Ethereum's recent price action has sparked renewed bullish sentiment in the market, as reflected in the ETH funding rates metric. This metric measures the aggression of buyers versus sellers in the futures market, where positive funding rates suggest bullish sentiment and negative rates indicate bearish sentiment.

Currently, the funding rates are in positive territory with a slight upward trend, indicating that futures traders have shifted towards a more optimistic outlook on Ethereum. However, despite this positive shift, funding rates are still lower than levels seen in March, when Ethereum was in the early stages of a strong bullish trend.

This disparity suggests that while there is growing bullish sentiment, it hasn’t yet reached the intensity required to fuel a significant breakout. For Ethereum to overcome key resistance levels and sustain an upward trajectory, a higher funding rate would signal increased buying interest and confidence from futures traders. Higher funding rates would not only confirm participants’ willingness to go long on Ethereum but would also add upward pressure on the price, potentially leading to a stronger and more sustained rally.

Bitcoin dominance is a key indicator in the cryptocurrency market, often signaling shifts in investor behavior. Historically, a decline in Bitcoin dominance has marked the beginning of bull markets, as investors diversify their portfolios into altcoins. This trend suggests increased capital flow into a broader range of cryptocurrencies, potentially sparking widespread market rallies.

Analyzing current data, we observe that Bitcoin dominance is decreasing, which could herald the onset of a new bull market. If historical patterns hold, the cryptocurrency market may be poised for significant growth as investors seek opportunities beyond Bitcoin.

Long-term holders (LTH) are showing significant accumulation behavior, aligning with notable shifts in Bitcoin’s trend. The LTH 30-Day Net Position Change, which measures the monthly net growth or decline of supply held by long-term holders, has recently shown a slight dip as BTC approaches its previous all-time high (ATH).

However, this negative net flow is approximately 2.5 times smaller than the reduction observed at the prior ATH level. This indicates a more restrained sell-off, suggesting that LTHs are positioning themselves for a potential short-term rally. The moderated selling behavior reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s market trajectory.