What Does the Halving Mean for Bitcoin's Price?

Even though the general schedule of the halvings is known to the market beforehand, the 50% drop in the regular creation of new bitcoin is thought to lead to an alteration in the crypto asset's supply and demand dynamics. The bitcoin price has reached a new all-time high in the months following each of the previous three halving events.

Analysts say that this bitcoin halving is different for a number of reasons and that a bitcoin rally may not ensue.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization hit a new all-time high this four-year cycle prior to the actual halving taking place for the first time in its history. Bitcoin demand from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was largely credited for the rally. Many analysts believe that a demand-supply mismatch thanks to greater demand from the ETFs and limited supply after the halving, could propel bitcoin prices higher.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank say that the halving is "partially priced in" and that they do not "expect prices to increase significantly following the halving event."

Other analysts are worried that higher-for-longer interest rates make riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies less attractive as Treasury yields remain elevated.

"Whether BTC halving will next week turn out to be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news event' is arguably less impactful on BTC’s medium term outlook, as BTC price performance will likely continue to be driven by the said supply-demand dynamic and continued demand for BTC ETFs, which combined with the self-reflexive nature of crypto markets is the primary determinant for spot price action," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note last week, according to Coindesk.2

Bitcoin is certainly suffering some pre-halving jitters. After creating multiple price records in March, the price of bitcoin has been in a more pronounced downtrend since April 8.

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