Dear Traders,
As we bounce from the lows of the market crash, how sustainable is this momentum? While the green is a fresh change, what is the market outlook for 2023?
Here is the explanation of the breakdown of the pattern I have noticed between QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING and the BITCOIN HALVING (HALVENING) CYCLE.
Quantitative Tightening is basically a way of cutting the money supply to the economy by increasing interest rates, usually to curve inflation. Usually, after 18 months of interest rate rises, inflation eases the market cash flow returns. As shown in the chart, the BITCOIN cycle from havlening to bull run is approx 18-24 months, followed by OT 5-6 months later with 6-12months bear market, then the cycle repeats.
DAY 0 - HALVENING :
then 18-24 months of BULL MARKET
around the 30 months mark, QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY BEAR
MARKET
48 months (4 years) NEXT HALVENING
CYCLE REPEATS
At the bottom of each BEAR Market, there is also some type of BLACK SWAN EVENT. The following years were no exemption.
January 2015 / December 2018 / March 2020 / November 2022
Next market low - MARCH-MAY 2023
There are many potential factors that may cause this.
Thanks for Reading, and please let me know your thoughts
Lisa
