In the final stretch of 2024, Bitcoin is within a consolidation range at $94K. In addition to still strong selling pressure from Long-Term Holders gifting other people their Bitcoins, the buying pressure to levitate in this channel for a few more days is impressive.
Looking at the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, a metric that shows the balance in high-value zones when currencies are trading with huge profits compared to when they were first purchased, in this case, it is heated with high selling pressure, but not to the extreme.
To better understand the selling pressure, it is necessary to look at the short term as coins older than 6 months are the ones that move the most, on average between ~50K and 58K BTC/day, values that have remained stable since November. The STH supply is 5.4M BTC, today there are around 2M coins held in loss, percentage-wise I would say that only 16% are in unrealized loss, a calm number for a bull market with corrections along the way. (I don't think this is our market top, objectively I needed to see a dominant number to think about a bear market).
Is it still possible to fall lower?
Eventually yes! If you analyze the losing coins, they are close to the STH cost base well situated at $85K, which shows this to be a target to be beaten. The MVRV still converges with the cost base, as it is still in a heated zone (1.10) of “caution” for the short term and has room to go down a little further where we can “happily buy sats at a lower price”. The selling pressure continues and at this time of year with adjustments in institutions, it may be necessary to sell and start 2025 on the right foot!
Written by Percival
