Net Flow USD vs. Price Chart:

- Large positive net flows (green bars) indicate substantial capital entering Bitcoin ETFs, often coinciding with market peak.

- Significant negative flows (red bars) indicate capital leaving Bitcoin ETFs, often coinciding with market bottom.

Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability Chart:

- chart indicates whether miners are in a state of profitability or loss based on their operating costs versus Bitcoin prices.

- The overpaid/extremely overpaid zones (orange/red) suggest times when miners are in a profitable position.

- The underpaid/extremely underpaid zones (blue) represent periods when miners are operating at a loss.

Key Observations:

- As Bitcoin prices rise, miners’ revenue increases where miners are overpaid or even extremely overpaid, as shown in the Miner Profitability Chart during events like March, June, and October 2024. In these periods, miners generate significant profits, leading to higher miner sustainability metrics (above the 40-mark).

- When capital exits Bitcoin ETFs, indicated by a negative net flow due to selling pressure, miners' revenue decreases while their operational costs stay the same, This results in miners being underpaid or extremely underpaid, where profitability drops into negative territory, as seen in May 2024 with a sharp decline in Bitcoin price and a miner sustainability of -60 (extremely underpaid).

Summary:

Positive USD net flows (inflows) → Bitcoin price rises → Miner profitability increases → Miners are overpaid.

Negative USD net flows (outflows) → Bitcoin price drops → Miner profitability decreases → Miners are underpaid.

Written by Amr Taha