Tranzacționarea pe piața criptomonedelor poate fi un efort entuziasmant, dar provocator. În calitate de trader amator care a petrecut mai mult de un deceniu navigând în lumea tranzacționării pe Binance, am obținut informații valoroase și am învățat lecții importante pe parcurs. În acest articol, voi împărtăși un rezumat al punctelor cheie care mi-au modelat călătoria de tranzacționare și care pot beneficia potențial de alți comercianți.

Comerțul emoțional: un semn de avertizare

Una dintre cele mai importante lecții pe care le-am învățat este să evit tranzacțiile emoționale. Emoții precum frica, lăcomia și nerăbdarea pot întuneca judecata și pot duce la decizii impulsive. Este esențial să recunoaștem și să controlăm aceste emoții. Dacă faci tranzacții pe baza emoțiilor, este imperativ să dai înapoi și să iei o pauză.

Piețele financiare au fost întotdeauna un domeniu plin de provocări și oportunități, iar în ultimii ani, inteligența artificială (AI) a început să revoluționeze industria. Fiind unul dintre domeniile importante, tranzacționarea AI a devenit un instrument cheie pentru instituțiile financiare și comercianți. Acest articol va aprofunda conceptele de bază, componentele cheie, tranzacționarea de înaltă frecvență, reglementarea și conformitatea tranzacționării AI, precum și avantajele și provocările sale.

Definiția AI Trading

Tranzacționarea AI este o metodă de utilizare a tehnologiei inteligenței artificiale pentru a executa strategiile de tranzacționare pe piața financiară. Nu se mai bazează pe luarea deciziilor subiective a comercianților umani, ci folosește algoritmi informatici și analize de date mari pentru a automatiza și îmbunătăți eficiența deciziilor de tranzacționare. Tranzacționarea AI poate fi aplicată pe diverse piețe financiare, inclusiv piețele de valori, piețele valutare, piețele futures și piețele de criptomonede.

În peisajul în continuă evoluție al piețelor financiare, tehnologia continuă să remodeleze modul în care comercianții abordează investițiile. Printre cele mai semnificative inovații se numără apariția semnalelor de tranzacționare bazate pe inteligență artificială, care au atras o atenție imensă atât din partea comercianților începători, cât și a celor experimentați. Acești algoritmi sofisticați analizează cantități mari de date de piață și tendințe istorice, cu scopul de a oferi informații utile și de a crește potențial performanța de tranzacționare.

Puterea semnalelor de tranzacționare alimentate de AI:

As Bitcoin (BTC) becomes increasingly popular among investors around the world, MicroStrategy co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor has pointed out the problems with self-custody and expressed his belief that there will come a time when all the major banks will offer Bitcoin custody services.

Indeed, Saylor explained that if Bitcoin was to become the solution for everyone on the planet, then it was inevitable that banks, corporations, governments, and non-profits all need Bitcoin, as he told Kitco News’ Michelle Makori in an interview published on May 22.

Problem of self-custody

According to him, “the City of New York is not going to allow the mayor to walk around with Bitcoin in personal custody, and it’s not really practical for the Defense Department of the United States of America to let one general have all the Bitcoin.”

With this in mind, Saylor believes that:

“Large institutions, churches, corporations, and the like, they’re going to need an infrastructure of custodians and banks, and so I do think there will be a time when all the big banks will custody Bitcoin.”

Furthermore, he argued that some groups of people simply could not be reasonably expected to self-custody Bitcoin, such as children who inherited it or elderly people with dementia, in which case an institution like a trust company would have to step in that would manage their Bitcoin possessions for them.

Bitcoin in traditional institutions

On top of that, Saylor highlighted that “if you believe nation-states will continue to exist, then you’re going to have Bitcoin held by institutional sources, they’re going to have to have a bank to hold it for them.” Therefore:

“I think that Bitcoin is inevitably going to permeate all of the traditional institutions in the world in different ways for different reasons – economic reasons, physical reasons, political reasons.”

As a reminder, enterprise business intelligence (BI) software vendor MicroStrategy has so far purchased over 140,000 BTC, which some, including Hal Press, the founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency-focused investment fund North Rock Digital, have criticized as a “comically stupid” strategy.

Meanwhile, the flagship decentralized finance (DeFi) asset was at press time changing hands at the price of $27,323, up 1.72% on the day and gaining 0.41% across the previous week, as it looks to reverse the losses of 1.70% accumulated over the past month, as per data retrieved by Finbold on May 23.

The king coin’s price has long-term potential of reaching its peak again. But it depends on a number of factors.

BTC may have approached the beginning of a bullish run.

The coin circulation rests in an extremely low region.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] failure to recover from its recent decline could be something that long-term investors may not necessarily need to worry about, based on signals from the Pi Cycle Top indicator. 

Historically, the indicator has been instrumental in picking out market cycles. Furthermore, the metric uses the 111-day Moving Average (MA) and a multiple of the 350-day MA with respect to the Bitcoin Price.

Offering chances that lead to the pinnacle

According to LookIntoBitcoin,  the 111-day MA was still lower than the 350-day MA. This implies that the current market was far from being overheated since Bitcoin peaks only happened when the former surpassed the latter.

Therefore, it may seem advantageous to accumulate some BTC at the current state. Despite the hope that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator offers, the Bitcoin fear and greed index decreased to 48. 

The index considers volatility, momentum, and market sentiment in determining participant reaction to sudden price action.

 In the first quarter, this index pointed to the greed region. But now that it was neutral and closer to the fear area, it means that investors were not presently excited about the price prospect.

At press time, BTC’s price was $27,069, a mild 3.83% decrease in the last 30 days. In addressing network profitability, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) left the negative region.

The aSOPR reflects the shift in market sentiment of shrimps and whales’ lifespan while monitoring profitability. With its value above 1.0, the aSOPR showed that there has been a recovery around the 90-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Therefore, this means that a wide cross-section of BTC holders leaned toward profitability.

Circulation down

Although the aSOPR and Pi Cycle Top indicators displayed bullish potential, BTC might require more input from investors than is currently experienced. For instance, the 365-day circulation had dropped to 5.61 million.

Circulation shows the number of unique coins engaged in transactions within a specific period. As of January, circulation was as high as 6.05 million. Hence, the decline means that investors were shying away from exchanging BTC between addresses.

Meanwhile, the daily active addresses have revived from the severe decrease on 7 May. As of 20 May, the metric has moved to 737,000.

This meant that there was a considerable level of crowd depositing and receiving BTC based on the market. Thus, increasing the level of interaction with the coin.

The XRP price has risen by 3.5% in the past 24 hours, with its climb to $0.463353 representing an 8% gain in the last seven days.

Its current price means it has dropped by 11% in a month but increased by 36% since the beginning of the year, with this appreciation coming as the market awaits the conclusion of Ripple's case with the SEC.

It also comes just as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has suggested in an interview that cryptocurrency firms may leave the US, which in his view currently suffers from a "confusing" regulatory regime.

This may suggest that Ripple itself could be planning to leave America in the wake of its fight with the SEC, but with the cryptocurrency firm also acquiring custody provider Metaco this week, this doesn't necessarily mean it's expecting to lose.

XRP Price Prediction as Ripple CEO Says Crypto Firms May Leave US Amid Confusing Rules – Here's the Latest

There's no doubt that XRP is one of the strongest major cryptocurrencies in the market right now, with its indicators showing good momentum.

Its 30-day moving average (yellow) continues to climb pretty steeply above its 200-day average (blue), signaling strong buying pressure that could continue for several days, if not weeks.

Similarly, its relative strength index (purple) has remained consistently above 50 since the middle of the week, and is rising again now after a brief dip.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign is that XRP's support level (green) has been consolidating around increasingly high levels over the past few days, suggesting that the altcoin's gains aren't going to be reversed anytime soon.

XRP's strength this week is the product of a couple of factors, with the first being that Judge Analisa Torres -- who presides over the Ripple-SEC case -- denied the regulator's motion to block access to important documents related to William Hinman's 2018 'Ethereum-is-not-a-security' speech.

A key metric that measures momentum in the Bitcoin price just fell to its weakest level since March.

Last week, Bitcoin’s Z-score to its 200-Day Moving Average fell under 1.0, where it has remained more or less ever since.

That means that the current Bitcoin price is only just under one standard deviation above its average daily closing price over the past 200 days.

This time last month, a few days after Bitcoin had printed its highs for the year above $31,000, Bitcoin’s Z-score to its 200DMA was 2.27.

Bitcoin’s loss of price momentum over the last few weeks comes as traders book profit in wake of this year’s impressive rally and temper their optimism about how much further Bitcoin might rally over the remainder of the year amid a continued cloud of uncertainty regarding the US crypto regulation outlook and how much, if at all, the Fed will cut interest rates in the second half of the year.

Arguably, high Bitcoin transaction fees amid a surge in block space demand as the new BRC-20 standard of crypto tokens issued directly on-chain gains in popularity has also been weighing on the price.

It has certainly acted as a deterrent for the blockchain’s more traditional usage as a digital currency ledger – active daily users and the number of new addresses interacting with the blockchain on a daily basis have both fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, though daily transactions has surged to record highs.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

While it by no means guarantees that the Bitcoin price doesn’t have further to fall in the short-run, a Z-score to the 200DMA of around of just under one has often been a good time to buy Bitcoin, if the cryptocurrency is deemed to be in the early of middle stages of a bull run.

Take the 2015 to 2018 bull run, for example.

The line that marks a Bitcoin price of one standard deviation above the 200DMA seemingly acted as a strong level of for multiple years.

While this wasn’t so much the case in 2019 and early 2020 as Bitcoin recovered from its 2018 bear market, it did seem to be the case in late-2020 as the Bitcoin bull market went into overdrive thanks to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.

In the context of the current Bitcoin market and fundamental backdrop, the Z-score to the 200DMAs recent fall back to just below 1.0 could be a good medium to long-term buy signal.

That’s because macro conditions are expected to turn more favorable over the course of the remainder of the year – US interest rates appear to have peaked, regional banks remain on the rocks (creating safe-haven demand for “hard money” like Bitcoin and gold) and inflation is coming back under control (giving the Fed more room to eventually start with rate cuts).

Meanwhile, a litany of technical and on-chain indicators, as well as analysis of Bitcoin’s longer-term cycle are all flashing that the cryptocurrency has entered into the early stages of a new bull market.

Near-term bearish predictions of a retest of key long-term support in the $25,000s may well come true, with Bitcoin seeming in a short-term downwards trend channel and still below its 21 and 50-Day Moving Averages.

But many longer-term Bitcoin investors and bulls will likely be waiting on the sidelines to pounce on an opportunity to get Bitcoin at $25,000.

Bitcoin's difficulty hits an all-time high and hash rate surges as the cryptocurrency's network and mining dynamics evolve.

Quick Take

Bitcoin difficulty ticks to an all-time high, a positive adjustment of over 3%, currently at 49.55T.

The hash rate has also started to climb again, hitting 350 th/s for the first time on a 30-day moving average.

The has rate has been fairly flat for the past 30 days, but the hash rate has started to climb in the last few days.