Crypto阿飞

The popular influencer Bai Bing has been investigated by the tax authorities for tax evasion, resulting in a total recovery of 18.91 million yuan in taxes, late fees, and fines, which has all been deposited into the treasury.

Previously, this top-tier blogger with over 40 million followers managed to underreport personal income tax, VAT, and deed tax by a total of 9.11 million yuan between 2021 and 2024 through methods like changing the nature of income and false declarations. Typical moves included setting up shell businesses to convert labor income into business revenue, inflating costs, and charging luxury expenses to the company account.

While riding the wave of traffic dividends, they always try to cut compliance costs. This operation serves as a reminder to the industry: the influencer economy has never been a lawless territory. Tax authorities are tightening their grip with big data, and those who gamble with their luck often pay a steep price.

Today it's all about the news on KuaiLian VPN.

Some KOLs are really shameless, claiming that they only use KuaiLian occasionally when they return home.

I mean, come on, weren't you just in the country the whole time? We even had dinner together; you barely go out twice a year, and now you're flexing?

At least 90% of users in the country who bypass the Great Firewall use KuaiLian, and some KOLs are using it daily, but now they come out on X pretending they never use it—it's really disgusting.

There are way too many posers on X; why does everyone in the crypto space seem to come with built-in leverage?

Apple just crashed the scammers and harassers' party!

iOS 26's 'Call Screening' feature is ruthless: unknown numbers are automatically silenced, Siri finds out the purpose, and it converts it to text sent straight to the lock screen. You take a quick glance and know whether to pick up or not.

This week I've been completely at peace, no more annoying disturbances. iPhone is now a sanctuary for calls, my Android brothers, condolences 😂#OpenAI据称正在研发AI智能手机

In a bear market, various rumors are flying around:

Some say OKX is tight on funds, while others claim Binance has insufficient reserves...

I have compiled the fund reserves of major exchanges for everyone to see at a glance:
• Binance: $127.11 billion, far ahead, more than the combined total of the next 8 exchanges
• OKX: $26.8 billion, firmly in second place
• Bitget: $5.65 billion
• Bybit: $5.14 billion
• Gate: $4.79 billion
• HTX: $4.45 billion
• MEXC: $4.33 billion
• KuCoin: $3.3 billion
• Crypto.com: $2.03 billion

These reserves are mainly user-backed funds and also reflect the liquidity and security of the exchanges to some extent.

Under extreme scenario assumptions, the discussion is not about profits, but about survivability.

On the asset level, the logic is very clear:

Gold:
Does not rely on systems, does not consume credit, mainly hedges against the risk of order failure.

Bitcoin:
Self-custody is a priority.
Exchange assets, under abnormal conditions, are equivalent to 'subject to takeover'.

Stablecoins:
USDT / USDC being usable is more important than being able to appreciate.
Address history must be clean, and the interaction parties determine usability.

Sovereign credit assets:
Not absolutely safe.
Freezing, restrictions, and repricing all have historical precedents.

Equity assets:
Tech stocks are highly dependent on globalization.
Once the supply chain and capital flows are interrupted, the valuation system collapses first.

Real estate:
Lowest liquidity.
Cross-border, monetization, and maintenance all rely on stable order, only lease, no pledge.

On the physical level:

Priority of identity increases.
Neutral, resource-rich, away from the core of conflict, is more important than the tax rate.

These are not pessimistic judgments,
but treating system failure as a stress test.

Hope it will never be needed.

$SOL Recently, while comparing the performance of various chains, a few phenomena have become quite clear, so I’ll jot them down.

First, let's talk about SOL.
Its biggest advantage lies not in TPS or technical parameters, but in conversion efficiency.
When a hotspot emerges → consensus forms → funds follow, this chain of events flows smoothly.
Whether it’s the attention from the White House, the participation of A16Z, or the choices from exchanges, it feels more like a mature system in operation rather than isolated events.

Next, let's look at BSC.
The more obvious current issue is path solidification.
The market's focus is on keywords and the intricacies of competition, essentially a contest of speculative efficiency.
This model works well in fast cycles, but it's challenging to solidify into a long-term value cycle.

Community and rhythm are actually two sides of the same coin.
Without rhythm, the community quickly dissipates;
Without community, the activity will gradually exhaust.
Both must exist simultaneously for sustainability.

Another often overlooked variable is the narrative's extension space.
Memes that can go far typically have a story structure that can be continuously expanded.
Freedom, AI, identity, cultural labels, these are all recurring themes that can be invoked repeatedly.

The market is indeed cooling down,
But alongside the cooling, the noise is also diminishing.
Many times,
In the favorable phase, it’s about luck,
In the adverse phase, it’s when the ability to filter begins.

Recently, I have been applying for a China Merchants Bank credit card and a Hong Kong bank card.
The process repeatedly requires filling in work information and social security information.

At first, I didn't think much of it.
Until I saw many comments saying that without a formal job, a credit card is simply impossible to obtain.

Only then did I realize that having a job is itself a plus.
It's not about the level of income, but whether you are recognized by the system as a stable sample.

The default premise of many processes is:
Having a unit, having social security, and having a verifiable path.

You don't necessarily have to work all the time,
But while you can still be recognized by the system,
It's better to pave the way you can early on; there will be more choices later.

Act early in everything.

The current issue is not the lack of positive news,
but rather the structure's inability to convert positive news into sustained buying.

The macro environment is raising risk premiums.
Trade and tariffs are being weaponized, and U.S. Treasury yields are rising.
The institutions' choices are quite consistent: reduce volatility, narrow exposure, rather than bet on the future.

This is the same behavior seen with ETFs:
participating in the upcycle, and not propping up during pullbacks.

The signals from the blockchain are also clear:
long-term holdings are decreasing,
non-liquid whales' attitudes are wavering,
98k–96k range has concentrated selling pressure,
and exchanges still hold supplies that can be released at any time.

So the current state is not panic,
but rather a fragile balance of loose supply and unstable demand.

Prices seem to be fluctuating,
but essentially, any macro shock
will pull the range downwards.

The short-term focus is not on whether there is a rebound,
but on who will take over the rebound.

The real divergence point is ahead:
when institutional funds shift from trading to allocation,
the structure will change.

Before that,
all "bull market narratives"
are only allowed to exist for a period of time.

Why is it that in this round, almost all assets are rising, but the crypto market is falling behind?

The data has already given us the answer. Gold hits new highs, silver doubles, small-cap stocks surpass large-cap ones, and A-share tech stocks strengthen.
Crypto: surging and then retreating, sentiment exhausted.

This is not an issue of market conditions, but a problem with the trust structure.

After 10:11, institutions truly realized one thing:
The risk of crypto is not volatility, but the lack of a safety net when something goes wrong. On-chain assets cannot be recovered, responsibility cannot be defined, and when there is a crash, one can only take the blame.

The stock market has audits and judicial processes.
Commodities have delivery and spot anchors.
When crypto has problems, it is only a technical accident 😂.

Adding to that are tariffs, anti-globalization, and geopolitical conflicts.
Funds are starting to prefer assets that can be regulated, controlled, and held accountable. High volatility is not scary, lack of control is what’s terrifying.

So in this round, it’s not that funds don’t love risk,
but that #Crypto has temporarily lost the trust qualification for institutional allocation.

I am currently bearish on the US stock market, but I find it hard to short SPY directly.

Behind the index level are global liquidity and policy games; betting on direction is not as effective as betting on structure.

From a macro perspective, truly cost-effective shorts often appear where the price rises the most and the consensus is the strongest.

For instance, EWY has increased by 137% from last April to now, clearly outpacing the fundamentals.

In such a position, even without a sharp drop, the pullback itself is enough to consume a portion.

The current market situation is actually better understood when viewed in the context of a larger era gap.

On one side, the market is still living in the old narrative of imminent interest rate cuts and the return of liquidity. On the other side, the reality is that expectations for rate cuts are swinging back and forth, Congress has only passed half of the funding, and the risk of government shutdown is back on the table.

Trump's statement regarding the appointment of the Federal Reserve Chairman, which did not meet expectations, is essentially the direct collision of these two sets of era logic in the crypto space.

If Congress gets stuck again before January 30, a liquidity withdrawal will definitely hit risk assets first, and retracing the old path from last December would not be surprising.

Currently, engaging in contracts is not so much about betting on direction, but about surviving in the gap between the old liquidity era and the new game era.

Remember: Keeping an eye on the news is more important than focusing on candlestick charts. $BNB

The Nasdaq has been consolidating at a high level for three months now.
Neither making new highs nor pulling back, it's just stuck like this.

Many people feel this is very stable,
but to be honest, I’m starting to feel a bit uneasy.

There’s a counterintuitive rule in the market:
The real danger is not the decline, but the prolonged stagnation.

If this is a bull market,
the money should have voted with its feet by now,
if this is a strong trend,
the index wouldn’t give us this much time to contemplate life.

The current state feels more like
everyone is waiting for someone to make the first move.

The problem is, this first move,
will either be an upward breakout,
or a downward crash.

Once it goes down,
it’s never just the U.S. stocks that get hit.

Our generation easily overlooks one background:
the cryptocurrency market is not an independent market.
From the day it was born,
it has been tethered to the global liquidity oxygen tank.

Once something happens to the Nasdaq,
it's not a question of whether it will affect the crypto market,
but rather when it will transmit to the crypto market.

Many old players have actually experienced this:
when U.S. stocks crash,
BTC plays dead first,
and altcoins go down with it.

To be honest,
I’m not in a short position,
I don’t want it to drop either.

But these three months of sideways movement
have made me increasingly clear about one thing,
the most expensive thing right now is not the position,
but the cost of time and psychological cost.

Have you noticed,
everyone seems to be bullish on the surface,
but privately they have started to frequently look at macro data, indices, and the Federal Reserve.

This is not panic,
this is a premonition.

If we cannot effectively break through soon,
then this round of adjustment is likely not to be gentle.

And what truly determines whether you can survive
is never whether you are bullish or bearish,
but whether you have left yourself an escape route.

This is not being bearish,
just a reminder.

Short-term, three to four months, where can $BTC go?

@CZ Uncle Big said that no one can accurately predict the market trend on this timeline

But the US President should be able to😀
Got it, brothers? All in

$ETH 3500See🚀
I am E Guardian💂

I know a guy who has been in the circle for 6 years. He started with a principal of 500,000, and now his account has grown to 8,000,000. The most exaggerated part is that he didn't go all in, didn't use leverage, and didn't make any miraculous operations; he relied entirely on a set of (old-fashioned simple rules).

He usually looks at the market as calmly as drinking tea, not chasing hot trends, not grabbing airdrops, and is even too lazy to join groups. When others rush in after a surge, he reduces his position; when others panic and close their positions, he leisurely increases his.

I asked him for his secret, and he smiled and said: Don't think about making money every day; first think about how not to lose. Every time he makes a profit, he always takes half off the table and lets the other half fluctuate with the market; during chaotic market conditions, he simply stays out and goes fishing or spends time with his parents.

He said the cryptocurrency world is about cultivation; it's not about vision, but about mentality. Those who shout about getting rich quickly mostly haven't learned how to survive. Walking slowly can actually take you further. #BTC

$BTC Recently revisiting positions, I found that several tokens have fallen more than my mindset can handle, and I can't even average down.

Thinking about it, there's really no need to force it with these illiquid old altcoins that are being liquidated. Don't let last round's story deceive you again.

The market's rhythm is different now; who is still chasing that nostalgia of averaging down on falling assets?

The new opportunities are hidden in new narratives and new products, like hype and aster, which at least still have some room for imagination.

Stop always thinking about bottom-fishing old coins; those old altcoins are happier to see you enter than anyone else.

10 million US dollars, I have already given up on $BTC 1.

$BTC It's the weekend
The cryptocurrency market has already crashed
But it's okay
Monday will be fine🤣
I haven't dared to act these past two days
Those who say to buy the dip are all fools

$BTC Sometimes you will find that the real game rule is not how much money you have, but how much others think you have.

In this circle, vision and connections are often more valuable than cash flow. Those who know how to create an atmosphere can always bring funders and project parties closer, making them believe you hold the key resources.

When everyone wants to gain something from you, opportunities will naturally fall into your hands. As for whether it can be monetized in the end, it depends on whether you dare to accept it.

$BTC Some people say that trading is like a practice, but there is more than one way to practice.

Some people treat trading as a battle, obsessively analyzing candlesticks during the day and forcing themselves to be calm and disciplined like ascetics at night, as if emotions are a terrifying flood. And the result? They don’t dare to smile when they make money, and they don’t dare to cry when they lose, resembling robots going through life.

Then there are those who take a different path: they integrate trading into their daily lives. They ponder trends while drinking coffee, think about their positions while walking the dog, treat losses as an excuse to buy a meal for friends, and upgrade their keyboards and mice when they make a profit. Their mindset and rhythm are not forced, but rather naturally in harmony with life and trading.

Simply put, one relies on endurance, while the other relies on flow. Would you rather stare at candlesticks like a苦僧, or cast your net like an old fisherman following the wind?