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Charts show the share of BTC supply held by long-term holders (Bitcoin Supply Breakdown by Long-Term Holders). This chart compares the proportion of BTC held by long-term holders (LTH, with holdings exceeding roughly 155 days) to the total supply (blue line) alongside the BTC price (black line).

Blue line: LTH supply share (right axis, percentage).
Black line: BTC spot price (left axis).

The blue line has recently risen rapidly to around 84% or more (near the historical high, indicated by the pink shaded area). In other words, more than 84% of the number of BTC is currently locked up by long-term holders, with a significant reduction in circulating supply.

During bull markets, the LTH share typically declines (some long-term coins are sold and move into short-term trading). In bear-market cycles, the LTH share tends to rise (short-term holders sell, or coins age into long-term holdings).

The current signal is that the LTH share is at a historical high, suggesting the market is in a strong accumulation phase: less short-term speculative capital, and long-term steadfast holders dominating.

A high LTH share implies relatively limited selling pressure, but if the price continues to fall, some profit-takers or trapped holders from higher price levels may still sell, leading to volatility. With a large portion of supply locked up, it forms a strong bottom support. Once demand recovers, supply tightness makes it easier for the price to rise. This is a typical signal of “supply contraction + long-term holder accumulation,” which has historically appeared near cycle bottoms or before the start of an upswing.

The chart shows the BTC cost basis line for short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Change). It compares the average cost basis of short-term holders (STHs, typically held for less than 155 days) (pink line) with the BTC spot price (black line). The right-side axis shows the percentage change in the cost basis.

The pink cost basis line has been steadily falling from around $98,000 and is now down to about $68,000. So, as of now, the cost basis line for BTC short-term holders is around the $68,000 mark.

The current price is clearly below the cost basis line, indicating that short-term holders, overall, are in a state of unrealized loss.

In addition, the cost basis line continues to decline, reflecting that the purchase costs of newly entering short-term capital are getting lower, and/or that high-cost coins are being sold off or aging into long-term holdings. This suggests that market speculative enthusiasm is cooling down and that the short-term holder structure is undergoing adjustments.

When the price falls below the cost basis line, short-term holders face unrealized drawdown pressure, which can easily lead to selling behavior and increases the risk of further short-term downside.

Conversely, once the price rises back above the cost basis line and stabilizes, short-term holders return to being profitable, sell pressure eases, and that is conducive to a rebound.

Personally, I think there is still a high probability that the price will gradually move toward the cost basis line—around the $68,000 level. As for whether it will break above the cost basis line, or instead encounter resistance and fall back into a downtrend, those are things that cannot be determined at this point. We’ll just have to see how the market responds.

BTC regains the $65,000 level, while ETH, SOL, DOGE, and others surge in tandem. US stock index futures and gold and silver all rise across the board, while international oil prices plunge by more than 5%.

There is only one core driver: a sudden cooling of the Middle East situation.

On July 24, Trump ordered a pause in airstrikes against Iran, breaking the previous streak of attacks on 13 consecutive nights. The US military has stood down for the past two nights. Iran then announced it would pause reciprocal strikes, saying it would also halt military actions as long as the US stops its attacks. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also confirmed that information exchanges with the US are still ongoing, and that the mediator parties are continuing to push negotiations.

Iran and Oman held deputy foreign-minister-level talks on managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Officially, they described the meeting as “productive and making some progress.” Although the strait is still effectively “closed” at present, the diplomatic window has reopened.

The sharp drop in oil prices is the most direct catalyst for this round of market moves. Both WTI and Brent crude fell by more than 5%. The oil price pullback directly alleviates market fears of runaway inflation and the Federal Reserve being forced to raise rates, loosening risk assets across the board. CME data show the probability of a rate hike in July is about 36%, and about 55% in September. Previously, the surge in oil prices was a main driver for rising rate-hike expectations; now, with oil prices tumbling, the urgency for a hike naturally eases.

Where could BTC go next?

The $65,000 level has been reclaimed, but risks have not been fully eliminated. Iran’s stance toward the US’s declared ceasefire reflects “more skepticism than optimism,” viewing it as more of a tactical consideration rather than a genuine shift. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to travel to the US on July 27 and meet with Trump on July 28. This “troublemaker” has never been keen on US-Iran de-escalation, and the trip may bring new uncertainties.

The Strait of Hormuz is still in a closed state, and tanker explosion incidents are still occurring. Ceasefire is a fact, but it is extremely fragile. The FOMC meeting on July 28–29 this week is the next key checkpoint. The market broadly expects the interest rate to remain unchanged, but if the Fed releases any hawkish signals, this rebound could quickly end.

The upside from geopolitical de-escalation has already been priced in. The remaining question is whether this is a sustainable turning point—or just another brief pause to catch its breath.

【2026.7.43】Thinking

First, look at the whale address section in the chart. To sum it up in one sentence: on-chain there’s basically no action, but off-chain has crashed hard. The data for the spot ETFs also shows substantial net outflows, ending the nice streak of net inflows for seven consecutive days. So why is the price still falling continuously? Here are a few points: interest-rate hike expectations surged again as the conflict between Iran and the US escalated broadly. Also, the U.S. crypto bill—the CLARITY Act—has run into unexpected obstacles and is stuck in a deadlock in negotiations between the two parties, with the Democrats refusing to cooperate. In addition, Poolin, once one of the largest Bitcoin mining pools globally, has filed for bankruptcy in the U.S., and pressure on miners is building up; if more miners are forced to liquidate their positions, it will further increase sell pressure on the market. And then there’s BITMEX, the long-established exchange that created the 100x perpetual contracts—it has also announced that it has officially shut down.

In short, over these past two days, negative catalysts have erupted in a concentrated way, causing the price to be unable to hold steady at high levels—let alone build momentum to push upward. And as the “yesterday small essay” said, the price is indeed facing pressure in the range 【65400-65600】. If it can’t get above there, then consider going short.

Back to the order flow, based on the current trend, my views are:

1、The 64,000 level is definitely support, but I think it may only provide a brief floor and won’t be able to effectively stop the decline and reverse into an uptrend. The downside target, as mentioned yesterday, is the 63,500 level. Will it go lower? If 63,500 is broken decisively, then it may come down toward 63,000—so for now, let’s assume that.

2、For the key overhead resistance, I believe it’s the range 【64600-64900】. Only if the price breaks through and holds above the 65,100 level will there be a possibility of a short-term “revival.” Otherwise, the bears still have the advantage in the near term.

3、If you want to bottom-fish and catch longs, there’s no need to rush—wait until sentiment has recovered again.

To sum up, just for reference.

BTC falls below $65,000; in 24 hours it drops nearly 2%, and liquidations across the whole market total $250 million. Four things hit at the same time.

First, Iran rejects the only ceasefire proposal Trump put on the table. Trump asked Iraq’s prime minister, Al-Zeaydi, to deliver a message to Tehran, but Iran simply won’t buy it. Iran’s foreign minister told it like it is: the issue isn’t who delivers the message, but that the United States’ attitude is itself “illogical, greedy, and extremely controlling.” Iran doesn’t want to sign a temporary agreement that postpones the Hormuz issue. The only path to talks has been blocked.

Second, Trump is getting anxious. This war has been going on for 5 months. He expected it could be resolved in a few weeks, but now the U.S. has lost a dozen-plus service members, oil prices and prices are rising together, and approval ratings are sliding—prospects are worrisome ahead of the midterm elections. It’s said that during a meeting in the White House he directly called Iran’s leadership “scum” and “madmen.” He now feels diplomacy is useless; Iran only understands force and is entering a “revenge mode.”

Third, the United States imposes tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 economic entities at the same time, covering 99.4% of U.S. import trade volume. They officially take effect on July 24. China faces 12.5%, while Japan, South Korea, and the EU face 10% to 12.5%. The flames of the global trade war are being fanned again.

Fourth, Trump announced that Iranian funds controlled by the U.S. will be used to compensate for all damaged ships and cargoes. In plain terms: using Iran’s money to pay Iran—making it clear there will be no room for further negotiations.

All of these are bad. If ceasefire talks fall apart, the conflict will have to continue. Oil prices have risen 15% in a week; inflation expectations are heating up, and fears of the Federal Reserve raising rates are getting heavier. Once tariffs are added, the risk of a global trade war rises and risk assets face collective pressure. BTC has slid from above $66,000 all the way down to more than $64,000.

$65,000 has already broken. In the short term, the question is whether $64,000 can hold. If it can’t, prices may move toward $62,000–$63,000. This round of decline isn’t caused by a single piece of news—three factors have come together: the ceasefire talks collapsing, tariffs taking effect, and the war escalating. In the short term, market sentiment may be difficult to repair quickly.

【2026.7.23】Thoughts

First, look at the whale address section in the chart. Well, today, as the price adjusted, it brought out another net outflow of 236 coins. But what’s interesting is that yesterday there was a very sizable net inflow of 3,161 coins. I think this is still a good sign, showing that even when the market is rebounding from a relatively high level, funds are still rushing in. Since today is in a downward correction, it’s normal to see disagreement in positioning among participants. Still, I care more about that net inflow of 3,161 coins yesterday.

So I believe the correction may just be a correction. Even if in the future the price drops back to around the 63,000 line, I still think there is enough energy to push upward. This is what I think for now. However, if over the next few days whale addresses continue to show net outflows, then my view may need to change. At that time, we’ll analyze specific details based on the situation.

Next, looking at the spot ETF data: it remains in a continuous net inflow state as well, which suggests that institutions’ confidence is gradually recovering, and Western participants are slowly buying in. Keep watching this.

Back to the order book and market action. Based on the current trend, my key points are:

1) Key support below: comes from the range 【64,000–64,300】. If there are signs that selling is stabilizing here, you could consider trying a long position with a light position size—but make sure to set a stop-loss. Also, the “low” here might only be for a rebound. The price may not immediately turn up straight after it stabilizes at this level. Because besides this key support, below it are still levels around 63,500 and even 62,300, and those are allowed to be tested. In other words, if the price really drops to the 63,500 level, it still falls within the scope of a correction—just that the correction’s magnitude would expand a bit. No need to be surprised or panicked; everything is within a reasonable range.

2) For short-term moves during the day, I’m slightly more biased toward range-bound action leaning bearish. I think there’s a fairly high chance the price will move toward the 64,700 area and below. For the bears, the level that needs defending on the upside is the 66,000 line. Only if the price reclaims and stands above this level can bulls possibly turn things around and continue pushing higher. If that doesn’t happen, then it’s fine to hold shorts from the highs. The key overhead resistance area is the range 【65,400–65,600】. If it can’t break through here, then consider going short.

In summary, just for reference.

BTC is consolidating above $65,000, and two major developments are brewing.

After several days of gains, BTC is currently moving sideways in the $65,000–$66,500 range. The ETF has seen six straight days of net inflows, totaling over $900 million, which has helped support the market.

But new pressure is coming.

Trump has said that the government will shut down in September. The two parties are at loggerheads over spending. A bill passed by the House is not being accepted by the Senate. If they can’t work it out before funding expires on September 30, federal agencies will have to close. Historically, around times when the government shuts down, risk assets are often hammered.

Even more troublesome: the U.S. military has escalated its actions against Iran. B-1 bombers have been deployed, targeting Iran’s underground nuclear facilities. This is the most severe strike since the conflict began. The U.S. military has carried out operations for 12 consecutive nights without respite, and casualty figures have been released: 18 dead and 482 injured. Iran, for its part, has directly announced a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Three oil tankers tried to force their way through—one was hit, and the remaining were turned back.

These two developments have a somewhat mixed impact on BTC. On one hand, a government shutdown would undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical tensions would push capital to seek a safe haven—both potentially bullish for BTC. On the other hand, higher oil prices make it harder to bring inflation down, and the specter of continued Fed rate hikes remains hanging overhead, limiting upside for risk assets.

In the short term, $65,000 is the key line. If the conflict escalates further or the shutdown talks fall apart, a pullback to $64,000 is certainly possible. If the situation suddenly de-escalates and, on top of that, ETF inflows continue, $67,000 could be in reach. Direction from this level is unclear.

The situation between the US and Iran remains tense, but the market is pricing in a key expectation: whether the conflict will further escalate.

At present, there is military confrontation between the United States and Iran, while both sides still leave room for negotiations. Fighting continues in the Middle East, and diplomatic channels have not been completely closed. What the market is most focused on is whether the Strait of Hormuz could be affected and whether the conflict could broaden.

For BTC, geopolitical conflict impacts in the short term come more from sentiment.

If the situation escalates, funds may first flow into traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold, and BTC could see short-term volatility. But if the market begins to worry about global monetary credibility and financial system risks, some funds may refocus on BTC’s safe-haven characteristics.

From a liquidity perspective, BTC’s recent rise is not driven solely by geopolitics. Inflows of institutional capital, a recovery in market risk appetite, and forced liquidation of short positions are the main reasons for the rapid price increase.

On-chain data shows that if long-term holders continue to reduce selling and exchange BTC inventory keeps declining, it indicates that market supply remains relatively tight. Future upside potential mainly depends on whether capital keeps entering the market.

It is important to note that the rally logic driven by the US-Iran conflict is a short-term catalyst and may not directly change BTC’s medium-term trend. What truly determines the direction of the market remains global liquidity, institutional capital, and the balance of market supply and demand.

Next, focus on two key windows. First, whether there are concrete signs that tensions between the US and Iran are cooling down. Second, whether capital inflows continue to be sustained during BTC’s upward move.

In summary, the US-Iran situation adds uncertainty to the market, but it is not the only reason for BTC’s rise. In the short term, it may cause choppy trading due to safe-haven sentiment, while the medium-term trend still depends on capital and the liquidity environment.

【2026.7.22】Thoughts

First, look at the whale address section in the chart. Well, yesterday, as the price pushed higher, it brought out 303 net outflow shares. Although this volume is small, the signal is very bad. It could easily cause a short pause in the price action. If the price wants to break into even higher levels, it will need to see funds providing support. The amount of newly added capital directly determines the strength of this round of big rebound.

The data from the spot ETF will reflect the influx of new capital even better. For the sixth consecutive day, there has been net inflow. Regardless of whether it’s really bottoming out or not, it won’t just appear and vanish. Plainly put: this wave of big rebound—there’s still more to it.

Back to the price action, based on the current trend, my views are:

1. During the short-term pullback, the key support below is the range 【65200-65500】. This is where trying a small position for a long trade offers good value. The next support further down is around 64700. That means as the price adjusts downward, the support is relatively solid, and the mainstream approach for now is mainly low-buy longs.

2. When will the price regain and hold above the 66300 level, and when will it continue to push toward the 67000 level? If there is an effective breakout above 67000, the next target will be 70,000. As for what some voices in the market are starting to say—about targeting 80,000—those people are the same ones who, when the market was falling, were talking about 40,000. They especially love to run their mouths.

3. Is it possible for the price to drop back to 60,000? Yes. Not only that—it can even drop below 60,000 and head straight for 50,000. It’s just that the timing is likely to be after September.

In summary, this is for reference only.

This chart calculates BTC’s realized volatility using the Garman-Klass method, reflecting the actual degree of price fluctuation.

Black line: BTC price.
Colored bars:
① Yellow indicates low-volatility periods (when the price is relatively stable).
② Pink indicates high-volatility periods (when the price is undergoing intense fluctuations).

High-volatility periods (pink) often occur near the top of bull markets or the bottom of bear markets, when the price experiences dramatic swings.
Low-volatility periods (yellow) are commonly seen during steady trends or consolidation phases.

The current price is in a low-level consolidation, with volatility transitioning from low to moderate. Historical data shows that after low-volatility periods, trend-driven moves often follow.

This chart is a volatility tool that helps determine whether the market is “calm” or “wild.” The current low-volatility phase is a neutral-to-positive signal for the price and is conducive to bottoming; however, yesterday, volatility rose due to a sudden development tied to expectations of Iran–U.S. nuclear talks. When yellow appears again, it suggests that the next major bout of volatility is coming very soon.