Original title: The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’
Original author: Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Original translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor’s Note: This article describes the situation of a French trader who calls himself Théo betting on Trump’s victory on the prediction market Polymarket, with a stake of over 30 million dollars, expecting Trump to win by a large margin. Théo insists he has no political motives, only to make money, but due to the enormous funds, he can hardly withdraw these bets, bearing immense risks.
以下为原文内容（为便于阅读理解，原内容有所整编）：
Mystery man who bet over 30 million dollars on Trump’s victory stated: 'I do not intend to manipulate the US election.'
The mystery man who bet over 30 million dollars on Trump’s victory hopes the public understands that he has no intention of manipulating the US election. 'My purpose is just to make money,' said the man who calls himself 'Théo' in a Zoom interview with (The Wall Street Journal) earlier this week. He introduced himself as a Frenchman who has lived in the U.S. and previously worked as a trader at several banks.
Théo's massive bets on Polymarket have drawn widespread attention, as this prediction market is not open to Americans. Last month, (The Wall Street Journal) reported that four accounts systematically bought bets on Trump’s victory on the platform, raising the odds of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data showed that the funds for these accounts came from the same cryptocurrency exchange, sparking public debate about the motivations behind the 'Trump whale.'
Last week, Polymarket, based in New York, stated that they have contacted this 'Trump whale' and are investigating the bet. The company introduced that the bettor is a French financial professional with extensive trading experience.
During a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, the shadow of former President Trump is projected onto an American flag. (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters)
Trump's projection on the American flag: the 'whale' in the shadow
Polymarket stated: 'According to our investigation, we learned that this person has taken a directional stance based on personal views on the election. Polymarket's statement details align with Théo's self-description, and he confirmed he has communicated with members of Polymarket's legal and compliance team.
Currently, election observers are meticulously analyzing various data in an effort to predict the outcome of what is considered the most intense and closest presidential election in U.S. history. Prediction markets, as platforms allowing people to bet on various potential events, have become one way to anticipate election results. Historical research shows that candidates with the highest winning rates in prediction markets ahead of the election usually end up winning the White House.
However, the emergence of the 'Trump whale' exposes the limitations of current prediction markets: even though Polymarket’s trading volume has surged this year, the market remains relatively small and can easily be manipulated by a wealthy and outspoken investor through multi-million dollar bets.
Théo: The mysterious bet of the anonymous whale
After an article about his betting was published on October 18, Théo contacted (The Wall Street Journal) via email. To prove he is indeed the 'Trump whale' on Polymarket, the newspaper asked him to bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce her pregnancy in 2024 — one of many non-political small bets on the platform. Minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named 'Theo4' had indeed placed a small bet on Swift’s pregnancy.
In the Zoom call, Théo, wearing a gray Nike sweater and sporting a neatly trimmed beard, expressed in a slightly accented English that he made the betting decision after analyzing that polling underestimated Trump’s support, denying speculation that he was creating momentum for Trump through his bets.
Théo refused to disclose his real name, and (The Wall Street Journal) was unable to verify all the details of his story. While he claims that these bets are made with his own funds, their authenticity cannot be confirmed, nor can any connections to political organizations or Trump allies be ruled out.
‘I absolutely have no political agenda,’ Théo wrote in his initial email.
Théo stated that he prefers not to disclose his name because his friends and children are unaware of his wealth situation, and he does not want them to know about his bets on Trump. He claims to be a seasoned financial investor willing to take risks of tens of millions of dollars in highly confident trades, but political betting is a completely new field for him.
Théo said he began to pay attention to U.S. polling data earlier this year, discovering that many polls from 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump’s support. He believes that if Trump exceeds expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also mentioned the 'shy Trump supporter effect' — that is, some voters are unwilling to express their support for Trump to polling organizations.
‘I know many Americans who will vote for Trump but won’t tell you.’ Théo was dismissive when discussing the adjustments made by polling organizations to correct issues from 2016 and 2020, stating he 'has not seen any substantial changes.'
Théo, who made a huge bet on Trump: confidence and concerns
In the past two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to (The Wall Street Journal) reporters criticizing what he sees as mainstream media polls biased towards Harris. In a Zoom call, he claimed that media supported by the Democrats are paving the way for social unrest by hyping the fierce competition in the election, while he anticipates a landslide victory for Trump.
Théo stated he was surprised by the external attention to his trading; he began betting discreetly in August, using the username Fredi9999 to purchase millions of dollars' worth of Trump victory contracts. At that time, Trump and Harris's odds on Polymarket were roughly even.
To avoid severe price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over several days. Nevertheless, as the betting amount increased, Théo noticed other traders avoiding quotes when buying from Fredi9999, making it difficult for him to place bets at ideal prices. As a result, he created three additional accounts in September and October to conceal his buying behavior.
If Trump wins and achieves the landslide victory he anticipates, Théo could gain over 80 million dollars in profits, doubling his return. His main bet is on Trump winning the electoral votes, and he additionally placed millions of dollars on Trump winning the popular vote — a scenario many observers deem unlikely. Moreover, he also bet on Trump winning in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose the vast majority of his 30 million dollars — which accounts for most of his liquid assets.
Due to his massive positions on Polymarket, he can hardly close them without affecting the market. According to Polymarket Analytics, four 'Trump whale' accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts for Trump’s electoral victory and over 40% of the contracts for winning the popular vote.
Théo admits he feels nervous. He is confident that Trump will win, believing the winning probability is between 80% and 90%, but he also worries that last-minute breaking news could affect the betting outcome.
‘Unexpected things can happen at any time,’ Théo stated.