UNUSD SED LEO (LEOUSD) has completed the 6-month consolidation by making a Higher High. As it trades now above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it looks now ready to start the 2nd rally of the Bull Cycle.
In the previous Bull Cycle (2020 - 2022), the two major rallies were almost of the same % rise (+194.50% and +198.50% respectively). Since the December 2023 - March 2024 rally peaked after a +72.26% rise, it is technically justified to assume at least a similar Bullish Leg based on the pattern.
As a result, we are expecting at least $9.00 by early 2025.
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Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) full Cycle since the November 2021 High can be illustrated as nothing more than a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern with the Channel Down since March 2024 being the Handle of the formation.
Simple yet a technical reality, the Handle found support both in early August and September on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), keeping the bullish trend valid. In fact, the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1W MA50 have been the bottom formation zone during its previous 6-month consolidation in August - September 2023.
All Bullish Legs since the November 2022 bottom have been within +90% and +100%. Even if the minimum (+91.68%) of the last rally is followed, we can expect Bitcoin to reach at least $94000 during that run by the end of the year.
But what do you think? Will this Cycle-long Cup and Handle serve its purpose and break-out aggressively? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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NEAR Protocol (NEARUSD) was rejected on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on September 26 2024 and today it is testing its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the 1D MA200 rejection was also a rejection at the top of the 6-month Channel Down, holding the 1D MA50 may turn out to be the new Support if the price is to finally break this pattern.
The 1D RSI is already testing its own Higher Lows trend-line, so there are high chances of a rebound here on the 1D MA50. If not expect a bounce at the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up. Either way, the Target is Resistance 1 at 6.5000.
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Back in August we were first to discover and bring to you the 'March - October' effect (see chart below) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), which is what every one is talking about now as we've started the month of October yesterday and the final quarter (Q4) of the year:

As you can see, this is nothing more than a consolidation that the market tends to make within this 6-month range that ends on October, which kick starts an aggressive rally. That was the case in 2020 (would be more flawless if the COVID crash hadn't distorted the chart) and more recently in 2023. Note that historically October shows gains of around +21.00%.
What we can additionally keep from this chart is that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held on three 1W candle tests since the August 05 Low and that provides the base for a potential October 2024 - March 2025 rally.
March 2025 has high chances of forming the peak of the rally as it historically tends to tops such Bullish Legs and then starts consolidation phases. That was the case on March 2024, March 2023, March 2021 and (as mentioned) if it weren't for the COVID flash crash, would have been most likely the case for March 2020.
All in all, even though the first two days haven't been ideal, we expect October to prepare the foundation for an incredible rally, especially on its last 2 weeks, a rally that might very well reach as high as $150000 before it enters a correction again.
But what do you think? Will October start such a rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Polkadot (DOTUSD) appears to be following since its 2021 High (All Time High), ETC's previous Cycle of 2018 - 2021. As you can see on this 1W chart, the RSI sequences in particular between the two fractals are almost identical.
Lower Highs Double Tops leading to the Bear Cycle, then an RSI bottom leading to a price break-out above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (on overbought RSI), finally followed by a new decline (RSI at 40.00), which in ETC's case when broken, led to the Bull Cycle's Parabolic Rally.
Right now it appears that DOT is on the 40.00 RSI Low, so naturally if it is indeed replicating Ethereum Classic's previous Cycle, we should see the price starting to rise aggressively towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If that's the case, we can expect a High around $200 by the end of 2025.
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Almost 1 year ago (October 25 2023, see chart below), Chainlink (LINKUSD) gave us an excellent long-term buy signal after breaking above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs:

Our 20.000 Target was hit and shortly after the price started to decline inside a 7-month Channel Down, which is still dictating the price action. Since the August Low though, the price has been rebounding on the 2023 Resistance, which we can now consider that it turned into Support.
This cyclical behavior was last seen during the previous Cycle when after a 2.618 Fibonacci extension reach, the price entered a multi-month correction below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and then recovered for the 2nd and final (and most powerful) rally of the Cycle.
This is exactly what we've been seeing this time around also. See how similar the 1W RSI sequences also are between the two fractals.
As a result, we expect LINK to start rising aggressively, even on this month. The previous Cycle topped on the 4.382 Fibonacci extension, so assuming this will be targeted again, we expect to see 53.00 by mid 2025, which is almost its All Time High.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has already started to break-out last week as it closed the first 1W candle with a Lower High in 6 months. Since the August 05 bottom, we've been seeing a strong bullish build up on BTC and the reason may be simpler than you thought.
As this 1W chart shows, historically when the USDCNY pair (red trend-line) tops by forming Lower Highs and starts declining (aggressively), Bitcoin always initiates its Parabolic Rally phase.
This basically means than when the Yuan gains strength, Bitcoin shines. The USDCNY's previous Cycle in particular, is virtually identical to the current one (2022 - 2024). All the above indicate that we may be on the verge and witnessing the start of BTC's most powerful part of the Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Will a continuous fall on USDCNY fuel an aggressive rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Avalanche (AVAXUSD) has just touched this week the top of the 6-month Channel Down. In cyclical terms, this is just a big Bull Flag half-way through the Bull Cycle, similar to those of the previous one, in August - November 2020 and March - June 2021.
The Cycle's 2nd bottom is in being doubt as the RSI held and rebounded on the 40.00 Symmetrical Support, which held and kick started the post June 2021 bottom rally. The only confirmation left to give us is to break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since late July.
As you can see both of 2020 - 2021 Bull Flags rebounded aggressively reaching the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result once the 1W MA50 breaks, we expect a similar rally on AVAX, whether more aggressive like 2020 or marginally less like 2021, but our Target is at $250.00 (Fib 2.0 and above the All Time High).
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A little more than a week ago (September 17, see chart below), we made clear that if Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above July's Lower Highs trend-line (the Descending Triangle's Top), it would be a major bullish break-out for the long-term:

And so it did and today we witness another strong daily rise as the price broke above the August 25 65000 High, cementing and confirming all bullish break-out bias.
Similar break-out happened 1 year ago
What's even more interesting is that we saw almost the exact same break-out a year ago on October 01 2023, when BTC again broke above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just after the Lower Highs break-out of an identical Descending Triangle.
It is remarkable that the market was also on a 6-month consolidation phase at the time, with a clear Resistance and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) supporting. The bottom was priced exactly when a 1D Death Cross was completed, just like the current phase did on August 05.
6-month Resistance break leading to +200% rise
After a quick 10-day consolidation following the Lower Highs break-out, the 2023 fractal then 'attacked' the 6-month Resistance Zone and broke it aggressively, confirming the emergence of a violent Channel Up that, after almost a +200% rise, it would take Bitcoin to March's All Time High.
Fed and U.S. elections immensely bullish
With the Fed having started a new Rate Cut Cycle last week with an aggressive -0.50% cut and the U.S. Presidential Elections in November historically being a huge bullish event (as explained in one of our recent publications), there is no reason not to expect a similar rally.
We are expecting to see $95000 towards the end of the year.
So what do you think? Is this a huge bullish break-out for Bitcoin and if so, can we experience a an October 2023 - March 2024 rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Shiba Inu (SHIBUSD) is making a strong bullish case this week as not only did it break above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since mid-August but is also testing the Top of its 7-month Channel Down, all while being supported by the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
This Channel Down is, on the larger scale, nothing but a Bull Flag, the kind of pattern that precedes aggressive rallies and bullish extensions. In fact if we compare Shiba's Cycle since its October 2021 Top, we see strong similarities with Doge's (DOGEUSD) true expansion Cycle in 2018 - 2021, where it achieved its strongest recognition/ adoption. An (a) top led to a (b- f) Channel Down that priced the Cycle's bottom and after a 1W Golden Cross, it formed the Bull Flat that SHIB is in right now, which initiated its hyper aggressive parabolic rally to the Cycle Top.
As a result, being still below its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, Shiba is massively undervalued in cyclical terms and technically if the Bull Flag breaks to the upside, the rally that will follow can target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 0.00035, just like Doge did in January 2021.
Do you think it will replicate this pattern or the market cap would be unrealistic?
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Tron (TRXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 14 2022 bottom. The price is now pulling back from the latest Higher High but remains above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
This pattern indicates that after roughly every 55% - 65% rise, the price makes a pull-back and upon breaking below the 1D MA50, a buy signal emerges again. Wait until that and buy for the next Higher High. Our Target is 0.2100.
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Cardano (ADAUSD) just gave the strongest long-term buy signal possible on the 1W time-frame as the 1W LMACD is forming a Bullish Cross. That is the first such formation in almost 1 year (since October 09 2023), indicating that we have the most powerful buy signal at hand.
The 1W RSI has been ranging since May, practically for the majority of the time that ADA has been trading below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Basically as you can see all the above conditions are identical to the previous Bull Cycle, where a Bullish Megaphone emerged on a 1W LMACD Bullish Cross and after a 1W MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross, the bottom was formed, while the 1W RSI was consolidating.
This time we have all these formations emerged again, so any week now, Cardano could start its new Parabolic Rally. With a Higher Highs trend-line setting a clear Resistance, we see a $5.00 price as a strong Target for the Cycle Top.
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Simplistic title over a matter as complicated and important as the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections this November, but completely true in terms of pragmatism.
As this straightforward 1W chart shows, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't just bulletproof when it comes to the elections but in fact it gains extreme buying momentum irrespectively of the winner (Democrat or Republican).
Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 all those elections had in common the enormous Parabolic Rally that was initiated exactly after the result. That was on all Cycles the most aggressive phase, clearly showing that investors just need the elections to be over in order to buy risky assets confidently without this macro event in the way. Usually this comes with fresh presidential assurances that the 'market remains strong and we will do everything to keep it this way' etc, so it makes sense.
What is equally interesting is that Bitcoin tends to top roughly a year after the elections:
November 06 2021 = Bitcoin topped 385 days later
November 08 2016 = Bitcoin topped 399 days later
November 03 2020 = Bitcoin topped 371 days later
This model indicates that even if we can't estimate accurately BTC's top in terms of price, we can time it. And based on the November 05 2024 elections, historically the minimum time it could time for BTC to reach a new Cycle top, would be 371 days, giving us a rough date around the week of November 10 2025!
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to get the boost of its life after the U.S. elections? And if yes, is it realistic to expect a top around November 2025?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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More than a year ago (July 24 2023, see chart below), we published our long-term expectations and pattern for Dogecoin's (DOGEUSD) Bull Cycle:

As you can see, it filled our projection quite effectively as it extended the Accumulation Phase (blue). That was a phase which, as you can see, was present during both of its previous Cycles and after a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross and a subsequent hold of the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), it came out of a (dotted) Channel Down/ Bull Flag and entered its Parabolic Rally phase (green).
As far as timing of the Cycle Top is concerned, we have a very consistent pattern which suggests that it is priced just after the 3.0 Fibonacci Time extension from the bottom of the Bear Cycle. That was accurate for both of the January 01 2018 and April 26 2021 Cycle Tops. As a result, the Top of the current Cycle should be expected a little after August 04 2025, assuming the true bottom of the last Bear Cycle was on the week of October 03 2022 (just before the FTX crash).
But what about the actual Top in price terms, you might be wondering? Well the first two Cycle Highs (January 20 2014 and January 01 2018) were priced just below the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level. The next one (April 26 2021) was priced higher on the 1.0 Fib on a technical overextension as it was the Cycle where DOGE experienced its strongest adoption and awareness.
It would be difficult to repeat this feat this time, unless some news/ fundamentals introduce new uses/ adoption and the market reacts with very aggressive capital inflows. In this new overextension case, we may see $6.00.
But our proper Target for this Cycle always was and remains $2.00, which falls marginally below the 0.786 Fib, just like the Tops of the first two Cycles.
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POPCATUSD has been trading within a Rising Wedge pattern and is currently on a new Bullish Leg (green). With the Internal Higher Highs trend-line just above, we expect a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which will present a buy opportunity at the bottom of the pattern. Our Target is 1.2500 short-term.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is only 10 days before the month of September closes its 1M candle and not only has it rebounded aggressively on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but is also holding the Symmetrical Pivot Zone for the 7th straight month.
This Zone is critical because during the previous Cycle in late 2021 it served as Resistance and since the recent March 2024 break-out, it has been acting as Support.
The Bullish Legs on the 2-year Channel Up indicate that if this month closes above the Symmetrical Pivot Zone and inside the Channel Up, $100000 is well within reach, even by the end of the year. Especially after the market got what it wanted from the Fed yesterday (-0.50% Rate Cut).
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Yes. Green Day's famous song suits Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just find under these circumstances. What are they?
Well, it is pure seasonality along its Cycles. This chart is simple. After every Halving since July 2016, Bitcoin enters a phase of choppy trade, with high volatility but it manages to keep the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) intact and support.
Then on the first week of October, it starts the Cycle's most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally. This has been confirmed on the past two Cycles and so far on this one, we have already got the Post Halving Chop, while the 1W MA50 was tested and held twice. With October only 3 weeks away, it appears that (if this model keeps repeating itself) we are preparing for a very strong rally that will be difficult to catch if you don't position yourself now.
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XRP saw a jump of around +9% last Thursday after Grayscale announced the launch of a new trust that gives accredited investors direct exposure to the cryptocurrency. Unlike an exchange-traded fund, the trust will primarily trade over the counter. Trusts are also more susceptible to trading at a price that does not line up with the underlying value of the portfolio.
Could this pave way for a potential ETF? Possibly, and that would certainly put XRPUSD in the same league as the market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum that are already drawing massive capital inflows following their ETF launch, ushering a new era for cryptocurrency.
But what we can do for the time being, is focus on the short-term technical price action alone and as you can on the 1D time-frame XRP's trend has been bearish since July 13 2023, within a Channel Down pattern.
Currently the price is past the new High, having formed a series of Lower Highs, which have emerged every time after a top. This trend-line didn't break in the past and pushed the price Lower to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level.
As a result, we can't turn bullish short-term as long as the Lower Highs hold. The action remains bearish, targeting 0.4000 (Fib 0.618). The moment however the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, we will take the short's loss and turn bullish, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1275.
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Ethereum (ETHUSD) may have completed three straight red months (1M candles) but despite the recent correction, managed to close August above the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), in spite of touching it earlier within the month.
This is a key Support level as it also held during the August - October 2023 bottom formation, initiating the multi-month rally up until March 2024. This makes it a long-term Support and as long as it is holding, it is keeping ETH within bullish territory.
At the same time, the price also held the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the Cycle bottom. The last time that happened was during the previous Cycle in September - October 2020. After it held, this kick-started the Cycle's Parabolic Rally to just above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level.
As a result, as long as the 1M MA50 is holding, we can expect the next High to be as high as 11500, even though 8k would seem more reasonable in terms of market cap and thus feasible as a long-term Target.
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A month ago (August 13, see chart below) we gave the first bullish break-out signal on Sui (SUIUSD), as the price broke above its Lower Highs trend-line:

As you can see, it re-tested the trend-line to confirm it as a Support and, as expected, it held giving way to a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Sunday. That is the second and final bullish break-out signal.
As per our original analysis, our Target remains $2.700, marginally below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, as it happened with the March 27 2024 High. A Channel Up to guide the price there is the most likely pattern to emerge. Watch also for a potential 1D Golden Cross by the first week of October.
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