Is Bitcoin On Track to Make a Big Move and Hit $100,000 in 2024?
Over the last 15 years, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has already surpassed nearly every projection, estimate, and expectation. In just over a decade, the cryptocurrency has grown from just a few pennies per digital coin to more than $50,000 by 2021, taking the world by storm.
With its price sitting at roughly $70,000 in June 2024, the next major landmark in sight is the coveted six-figure mark. As sensational as it might sound, history tells us that a $100,000 price tag is increasingly likely. But the real question is: When will Bitcoin make it past $100,000? Could it be in 2024?
Measuring the effect of the halving
Any prediction like this is inherently speculative. But a bit of speculation can be healthy and force us to evaluate an investment's long-term developments.
To forecast Bitcoin's performance, it's imperative to consider the trends around the halving. The halving is a pre-programmed event that occurs approximately every four years. It reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half and forms the foundation of Bitcoin's robust monetary policy.
This mechanism effectively decreases the rate at which new bitcoins are created over time, contributing to Bitcoin's scarcity and, historically, its price appreciation. Bitcoin recently underwent its fourth halving in April 2024, sending its inflation rate to just 0.85%.
Due to the clear influence the halving has on dynamics around Bitcoin's supply and demand, we can form our projection around it by looking back at previous halvings. In the year Bitcoin undergoes a halving, its price increases by around 125% on average. If we measure from its price at the beginning of the year ($44,000), a 125% increase would put its price at $99,000.
If this halving has a similar effect to past ones, it appears that Bitcoin should be within striking distance of the $100,000 mark in 2024. But to add more certainty to 2024 being the year Bitcoin hits six figures there is one other variable we need to consider.