On track for $1m per BTC as "fair value" by 2035.
That's if we take the user growth curve as a guide for valuation. Remember I said fair value and not peak value in bull market hype.
- In the early days price was slow to catch up to user count, BTC didn't even have a price until the 1000th user came in. Thanks to the blockchain we have a high resolution view of users using forensic clustering of addresses into entities.
- Price discovery started with early markets like New Liberty #BTC Standard and MtGox. By Aug 2011 Bitstamp launched and we had multiple global exchanges to properly price the asset. [shaded region]
- After 2012 price pretty much oscillated around the increasing user count.$