Analysis from VanEck’s Matthew Sigel and Nathan Frankovitz suggests that the outcome of the November election could be a mixed bag for crypto.
Donald Trump has consistently advocated for the industry this year, while Kamala Harris has been more muted on the topic.
Much has been made about the cryptocurrency industry's impact on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump has gone so far as to call himself the "crypto president" while advocating for the industry on the campaign trail this year. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has been much more muted since she officially entered the race.
In terms of which outcome could be better for the crypto industry, VanEck offers a case that isn't so cut and dry.
"[W]e think that while Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are bullish for Bitcoin each presents more nuanced implications for the broader digital asset markets," wrote Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital assets research, and Nathan Frankovitz, its digital asset investment analyst. "Both administrations will likely maintain fiscal spending if not further accelerate, which could lead to further quantitative easing — especially if exacerbated by anti-business policies."
VanEck offered a case where Harris retainsSEC Chair Gary Gensler — somebody Trump has said he would try to fire — and aligns her financial policy with the Sen. Elizabeth Warren side of her party that features a much tighter regulatory environment that would dampen institutional adoption of digital assets.
SkyBridge Capital Founder Anthony Scaramucci, a former press secretary under Trump's first administration, earlier this week said a group of crypto advocates he works with are working with the Harris campaign to move the Democrats away from Gensler and Warren.
"On Bitcoin alone, however, we would argue that a Kamala Harris presidency might be even better for Bitcoin than a second term for Trump because it would, in our view, accelerate many of the structural issues that drive Bitcoin adoption in the first place," VanEck wrote. "Should that happen, Bitcoin’s unique regulatory clarity will likely make it even more competitive than other digital assets."
Yet the crypto industry as a whole would reap the rewards should Trump assume the presidency for a second time, according to VanEck's most recent analysis.
"[W]e believe a Trump presidency is generally bullish for the entire crypto ecosystem, as it would likely produce more deregulation and business-friendly policies — perhaps particularly so for crypto entrepreneurs, who regulators have increasingly scrutinized in the past four years," VanEck wrote.
However, other analysts see only one candidate as being helpful to bitcoin. A team at Bernstein predicted bitcoin's price would reach close to the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of the year if Trump wins the election. Conversely, they predicted bitcoin to drop and test the $30,000 to $40,000 range should Harris win.
"Regardless of the election outcome," VanEck wrote, "the trend of growing fiscal deficits and rising national debt will likely continue. This suggests a weakening of the U.S. dollar, a macroeconomic environment in which Bitcoin has historically thrived."$BTC
