According to recent data from Polymarket, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election against Kamala Harris have dropped to 53.8%.
This decline suggests that traders and political watchers are feeling less confident about Trump’s path to victory.
The betting odds, which often reflect public sentiment, indicate that Harris might be gaining some momentum as the election season heats up.

This shift in odds shows that the race between Trump and Harris could be closer than expected.
With only a small lead for Trump, it signals a tight competition that may swing in either direction as more voters make up their minds.
As the election date gets closer, we may see these numbers change again, influenced by campaign events, debates, and shifts in public opinion.
The data reflects the growing uncertainty and high stakes of what’s shaping up to be a fiercely contested election.

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As the 2024 U.S. presidential election nears, a surprising trend is emerging: a growing number of affluent Americans are planning to relocate abroad. This “wealth exodus” reflects rising concerns over political polarization, social unrest, and potential policy changes in the U.S.
Below, we break down the factors driving this migration, the potential economic impacts on the U.S., and the implications for global markets, particularly stocks and cryptocurrency.
Why Are Wealthy Americans Leaving?
• Political Uncertainty: Fears about domestic instability and policy shifts, especially around higher taxation.
• Seeking Stability and Security: Countries like Portugal, New Zealand, and Singapore offer stability and attractive tax benefits, with investment programs granting residency for significant financial commitments.
• Global Mobility: Increasingly, wealth is seen as borderless, and many high-net-worth individuals view global residency as an essential asset.
Economic Impact on the U.S.
• Loss of Tax Revenue: The top 1% of U.S. earners contribute nearly 40% of federal taxes. Their departure could reduce crucial public funding for infrastructure and services.
• Reduced Local Spending and Philanthropy: Affluent Americans are key contributors to real estate, local businesses, and charities. Cities like New York and San Francisco could see declining donations and business investments.
• Impact on Job Market: Many wealthy individuals also own businesses; their exit could mean fewer domestic jobs, especially in high-skill industries.
Stock Market Repercussions
• Decreased Liquidity: High-net-worth investors provide essential liquidity in sectors like technology and healthcare. Their withdrawal could lead to increased volatility and sector-specific corrections.
• Global Competition for Capital: If American investments flow into foreign markets, U.S.-based companies may struggle to attract the same level of capital, potentially impacting innovation and competitiveness.
Cryptocurrency: The New Safe Haven?
• Growing Demand for Digital Assets: Cryptocurrencies, known for their decentralized nature, appeal to those seeking financial security beyond borders. High-net-worth Americans are increasingly turning to Bitcoin and Ethereum as hedge assets.
• Offshore Custodial Services: Countries like Switzerland and Singapore are seeing a surge in demand for crypto custody, potentially shifting the balance of global crypto influence away from the U.S.
• Increased Market Volatility: As large-scale crypto such as $BTC and $ETH holding move offshore, U.S.-based exchanges could experience reduced liquidity, leading to wider price swings.
A New Era of Borderless Wealth?
The departure of wealthy Americans may mark a shift toward a more globally mobile elite, challenging traditional concepts of citizenship and national loyalty. As the affluent increasingly see themselves as “global citizens,” should governments rethink policies that engage or retain this segment of society?
In a world where wealth and people move freely across borders, how can countries foster a sense of belonging and loyalty among their most mobile—and powerful—citizens.
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