#MarketSentimentToday

Germany sold $1.21B of $BTC this week...
and they're about to sell the rest 25,000 $BTC
I analyzed their transactions and official reports...
here's how government tries to trick you 🧵👇

✜ At the moment, the government has already sold almost all their $BTC , leaving only 752 $BTC in their wallets.
✜ As you can see, nothing critical has happened in the market.
✜ #BlackRock has bought up all the current sales from the German government.

If you loved this thread, don't forget to:
• Follow me @koinmilyoner nmilyoner for more exciting content!
• Like, retweet, and leave a comment 👾

Germany sold $1.21B of $BTC this week...
and they're about to sell the rest 25,000 $BTC
I analyzed their transactions and official reports...
here's how government tries to trick you 🧵👇
✜ These Bitcoins were confiscated by the German government.
✜ In January 2024, 50,000 BTC were seized from the Movie2k website, which was involved in film piracy.

✜ In fact, they got them for free and aren't very interested in the growth.
✜ Currently, the German government is transferring funds daily to several CEXs:
- Coinbase
- Kraken
- Bitstamp

✜ There, they don't dump all at once but sell gradually and withdraw the funds back to their wallets in the evening, leaving no funds overnight.

#koinmilyoner #WhaleAlert #Whale.Alert

He sniped $BILLY for 437x, $POPCAT for 318x

I found his settings, tools and hidden apps...

here's his secrets and how to make $135K/month with it

I've put a lot of effort and time into this research and share a lot of alpha totally FREE. If you don't mind, please like and retweet the first tweet and FOLLOW me - @koinmilyoner

✜ Memecoins are the meta of the current cycle, bringing in MILLIONS of dollars with the right approach.

✜ Skilled snipers manage to get easy x1000 returns from promising memecoins.

✜ Today, we will examine one such sniper and learn how to earn the same way.

✜ Recently, I found a rather interesting wallet on @dexscreener due to its activities.

✜ This wallet was clearly a sniper, as it had positions in a bunch of different memecoins and was actively swapping something every day.

✜ I was also very impressed by its effectiveness

✜ The most successful snipe was the $BILLY token, which brought life-changing profits.

✜ The sniper bought $5.4M worth of tokens for $441 in a single transaction at the very start of liquidity inflow.

✜ In total, the sniper earned over $1,128,388 with $BILLY, a return of more than 43,756%

✜ Additionally, due to constant sniping, there are various results of an average sniper on his wallets:

- $POPCAT - 429x
- $MOTHER - 384x
- And many others

✜ These are results that anyone using sniper bots can achieve.

✜ As soon as I saw his case with $BILLY, I immediately realized he was using sniper bots.

✜ My conclusion came from the fact that the purchase happened right at the launch and the bot unloaded part of the tokens at the first targets (these settings were set by the user).

✜ Such purchase speed is mostly shown by custom bots with custom nodes.

If you loved this thread, don't forget to:

• Follow me @koinmilyoner for more exciting content!

• Like, retweet, and leave a comment
#Whale.Alert #WhaleAlert #koinmilyoner #BullRunAhead #100xgems

Polygon MATIC price is trading with a bullish bias on the one-day timeframe, but bears are leading in lower timeframes.

MATIC could plummet 10% to the $1.00 support level or worse.

A decisive flip of the 50-day EMA barricade at $1.14 into support will invalidate the bearish thesis.

Polygon MATIC price is trading with a bearish bias in lower timeframes, but bulls are leading in the higher timeframes. The network has recorded strong retail demand and market reaction following the Polygon zkEVM product launch, which is expected to enhance privacy and increase transaction throughput on the Ethereum-compatible network. However, on-chain data indicates that crypto whales need more convincing for a strong uptrend to hold.

MATIC price risks a 10% downswing

MATIC price is trading below the $1.20 level for the second week in a row, putting pressure on the $1.00 support level. The altcoin is trapped within a formidable supplier congestion zone, upward due to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.11 and downward due to the 200-day EMA at $1.03.

If buyer momentum drops, bears could take over, causing MATIC price to drop and lose the support level provided by the 100-day EMA at $1.09 before revisiting the March 27 lows above the 200-day EMA at $1.03.

In the dire case, MATIC price could plunge further and tag the $1.00 support level, denoting a 10% price drop from current levels. This would be the ideal bouncing level for the altcoin, although, in highly bearish conditions, the token could shatter the aforementioned support level and tag the $0.91 support level.

Bearish whales threatening Polygon’s bullish potential, on-chain metric shows

A strategic cohort of MATIC whales has been booking profits since late February. The orange and blue bars below show how the cluster of whales holding over $100,000 and over $1 million MATIC, respectively, have been depleting their balances since late February.

This means that Polygon whales have intensified the sell-off, with approximately 26 million coins worth $30 million sold in the last week. Should the whale sell-off ensue, MATIC price could struggle to solidify a bullish trajectory in the coming weeks. 

Similarly, the number of whale transactions recorded has reduced by over 50% since mid-February. While only 266 MATIC transactions recorded worth over $100,000 at the end of Feb 17, as of March 28, the figure is down to 120. Notably, a drop in large transactions precedes an incoming slump for MATIC price. 

Still, if buyer momentum increases, MATIC price could breach the resistance level presented by the 50-day EMA at $1.14. A daily candlestick close above this level will invalidate the bearish thesis.

Northward, MATIC price could reach up for the next roadblock at $1.20 or tag the $1.30 resistance level in highly bullish cases. 

#matic #koinmilyoner #BTC #crypto2023 #BNB

Which way will Bitcoin break out of last week’s range? On screen I have highlighted the price range between $29,000 and $26,700, representing the high and low of the week-long ranging period. The price has flirted with a break to the downside, touching as low as $26,500, but a confident close below $27,000 is still to occur.

Bitcoin surged in March as confidence in the global banking system was shaken with the fall of a few US regional banks and the Swiss giant Credit Suisse. As it stands, it appears that the risk of other banks going under is subsiding, which may also stifle the upside potential of bitcoin moving forward. The phycological level of $30,000 might be too lofty a goal for bulls now if a break to the upside does occur. Gold hitting $2,000 might be more likely at this point.

Elsewhere in the crypto sphere, and perhaps applying some more pressure on the price of Bitcoin, The Commodity Futures and Trading Commission has filed a complaint against Binance and its Founder Changpeng Zhao, for allegedly violating US trading and derivatives laws. Binance and Zhao are being accused by the CTFC of operating an "inefficient compliance program" and deliberately violating the law. Zhao has tweeted that the CTFC’s allegations are "fake news”.

#fud #Fed #Binance #bitcoin #koinmilyoner

Bitcoin price has broken out from a six-month range consolidation, soaring 13.91% to the current price of $27,787.

BTC could breach the $29,292 resistance level before a run-off to the $36,172 resistance level.

A daily candlestick close below the $22,649 psychological support level could invalidate the bullish narrative.

Bitcoin price has broken out from a six-month range consolidation, in tandem with two momentum indicators as BTC soared by a significant margin. The latest breakout comes amid the recent banking crises that pumped liquidity into the crypto market, causing a surge in prices for most cryptocurrencies. With the fifth range currently in play, here is what to expect from the flagship crypto.

Bitcoin price on course for more gains

Bitcoin price is on course to record more gains for investors after breaking out from five six-month ranges, each with positive indications from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO).

Bitcoin price consolidated between January and June 2012 before a 247% breakout. In the same way, the king crypto broke out from a six-month-long consolidation between November 2016 and May 2017, soaring around 4200% to the zone above $15,000. There was another bullish move around November 2020 after a six-month consolidation, catapulting BTC almost 470% to the $44,700 range and a fourth one around October 2020 that saw the flagship crypto escape almost 770% northward.

With the fifth one currently in play, an increase in buying pressure from current levels could see Bitcoin price shatter past the immediate $29,292 resistance level. A decisive flip of this barrier into a support level would add credence to the bullish thesis.

In highly bullish cases, Bitcoin price could break past the $36,172 equilibrium to tag the next obstacle at the $46,589 level. Such a move would constitute a 67.80% increase from the current level.

On-chain data, as presented by IntoTheBlock, also supports the bullish case for Bitcoin price. This fundamental index identifies investors' average purchase price of a cryptocurrency versus its current price. Its statistical model analyses crypto addresses (wallets) that bought the asset at an average price above or below the current market price.

Based on the on-chain metric, Bitcoin price faces the next resistance level around the $28,606 and $33,399 price range. This was an important supplier congestion zone because 1.4 million addresses bought 543,250 BTC at an average price of $30,823 around this area.

A successful attempt to push Bitcoin price past the zone mentioned above would add credence to the bullish narrative, inspiring immense buying from the investor cohort who may wish to record more gains. The ensuing buying pressure would cause BTC to increase even further.

Industry pundits like @Balaji are also very optimistic about Bitcoin price soaring, to the extent that he is betting $1M that BTC will surpass the $1 million mark in less than 90 days.

Conversely, if investor appetite takes over, Bitcoin price could drop towards the $22,649 support level or, in dire cases, tag the $20,000 psychological level. Such a move would denote a 27% drop from current levels. 

#BTC #Fed #Binance #koinmilyoner #BNB

Ethereum price rallied over 10% and broke the $1,600 resistance against the US Dollar. ETH could continue to rise if it stays above the $1,580 support zone.

Ethereum started a major increase above the $1,565 resistance zone.

The price is trading above $1,580 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

There was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near $1,480 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).

The pair could correct lower, but dips might be limited below the $1,580 support.

Ethereum Price Surges Over 10%

Ethereum price spiked towards the $1,370, where the bulls took a stand. ETH formed a base and started a strong increase above the $1,450 resistance, similar to bitcoin.

There was a clear move above the $1,500 and $1,565 resistance levels. Besides, there was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near $1,480 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Finally, the pair surpassed the $1,600 resistance and traded as high as $1,636.

Ether price is now trading above $1,580 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is consolidating gains and trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,370 swing low to $1,636 high.

On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $1,630 zone. The first major resistance is near the $1,680 zone. The next major resistance is near the $1,700 level.

The main resistance is still near the $1,740 zone. A close above the $1,740 resistance zone might start a major uptrend. In this case, the price may perhaps rise towards the $1,850 resistance level.

Dips Limited in ETH?

If ethereum fails to clear the $1,630 resistance, it could start a downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,580 level.

The next major support is near the $1,560 zone. If there is a break below $1,560, the price might drop towards $1,500. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,370 swing low to $1,636 high. Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,430 level.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is now losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now in the overbought zone.

Major Support Level – $1,580

Major Resistance Level – $1,630

#Ethereum #ETH #koinmilyoner #buildtogether #Bullish

Bitcoin has died over 473 times according to media headlines, yet it always rises from the grave and rallies onward. A resurrection of the crypto market could be happening right now, as Bitcoin price has reclaimed the dreaded “death cross” on the 1-week timeframe.

Here’s a closer look at the moving average crossover that had the whole crypto market in fear, and what might happen now that it has been reclaimed.

The website 99 Bitcoins keeps track of each time the media mentions that BTC has died. Each mention must be “explicit about the fact that Bitcoin is or will be worthless” and the content must be “produced by a person with a notable following or a site with substantial traffic.” No small fries, or ambiguous “maybe Bitcoin could be dead” declarations are allowed.

The result is more 473 times BTC has been declared deceased. Every single time, Bitcoin has proven them wrong. But for the first time in history, crypto bears had a reason to be so negative. For the first time in the entire history of BTCUSD price charts, the top cryptocurrency by market cap formed a “death cross” of the 50-week and 200-week moving averages.

A death cross forms when the shorter moving average passes through the longer moving average from above. A golden cross forms when the same signal happens from below. Each signal tells investors that the long-term trend could be changing.

The death cross itself is bearish, which gave bearish crypto traders plenty of reason to stay short. But with Bitcoin now above it, a decision will have to be made: cover now, or stay the course with added risk of being stopped out higher.

Reclaiming Crossover Leaves Crypto Bears With Little Left To Cling To

With the death cross a proven bearish signal, the first-ever death cross forming in Bitcoin was another dangerous blow to already negative sentiment. BTCUSD 1W price charts are now above the two moving averages, potentially causing bearish traders to sweat.

The death cross on the weekly, and BTCUSD below the 50-month moving average were two of bears’ best arguments for why a new bull trend was nowhere in sight. Bitcoin also reclaimed the key moving average on the higher timeframe as well.

Finally, daily price charts have confirmed golden cross, and the longer-term moving average is beginning to turn upward – another bullish signal. Across the various timeframes there are still conflicting signals. However, with each moving average reclaimed, the bearish narrative is rapidly weakening.

#BTC #Binance #BNB #BullRun #koinmilyoner

nance claims to have no exposure to embattled Silicon Valley Bank.

The exchange has suspended its USDC-BUSD auto-conversion because of market conditions.

CEO Changpeng Zhao suggested that he might be interested in buying a bank in the future.

Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao said on March 10 that the exchange has no exposure to the embattled U.S. bank Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

The disclosure had become necessary after reports emerged that some crypto banks like Circle and bankrupt lender BlockFi had exposure to the firm. According to CZ, Binance has no exposure to the bank, and its users’ funds were safe.

Meanwhile, Binance has suspended USD Coin (USDC) auto-conversion to its Binance USD (BUSD), citing current market conditions. The crypto exchange said it was witnessing high inflows that have increased the conversion burden. “This is a normal risk-management procedural step to take while we monitor the situation,” it added.

With this move, Binance joins a growing list of exchanges that have stopped supporting USDC conversions following its issues with SVB. Others on the list include Coinbase and Crypto.com.

While some within the community described USDC’s current situation as karma for its alleged role in BUSD’s earlier regulatory issue, CZ said he believes “[Circle] didn’t do anything to hurt BUSD. Anything that hurts one player hurts themselves.”

Is Changpeng Zhao Considering Buying a Bank?

Zhao hinted that he could consider buying banks following the recent issues with crypto-friendly banks. CZ tweeted a 2022 news story that stated that Binance was considering purchasing a bank. He said he is “not sure” if the time is suitable for the exchange to buy a bank.

Binance has made several investments in traditional institutions. In 2022, the firm made a $200 million strategic investment in the media firm Forbes. The crypto exchange also backed Elon Musk’s Twitter acquisition.

Meanwhile, Binance is not the only crypto exchange considering a foray into the traditional financial space. BeInCrypto previously reported that Kraken said it has intentions to open a bank. Crypto-friendly banks have come under scrutiny following FTX’s collapse. The recent failure of SVB and Silvergate has further increased the scrutiny of these institutions.

#czbinance #Binance #safu #buildtogether #koinmilyoner

Binance altered storing the industry recovery fund as stablecoins and moved it to BNB, ETH, and BTC.

The crypto community believes that the decision could set off buying pressure.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao announced on 13 March that the exchange would stop keeping the rest of the $1 billion recovery fund in stablecoin.

CZ, as he is popularly called, confirmed that the fund had been kept in BUSD. But the ill-fated events that befell stablecoins recently have made it necessary to convert to crypto-native Binance Coin [BNB], Ethereum [ETH], and Bitcoin [BTC].

In November 2022, Binance announced a recovery fund after the FTX contagion revealed that crypto firms were not void of collapse. The exchange considered the fund helpful so as to bail out distressed crypto assets and projects in their time of need.

Switching the store of value ends in…

However, its Paxos-issued stablecoin got the regulatory hammer and has now been forced to change the storage location. And keeping in another stablecoin or a “trusted” bank could pose even more risk because of the turmoil around these entities.

Before the disclosure, the BNB value had increased by 9.28% in the last 24 hours. This increase, accompanied by an all-around market revival helped the coin regain the $300 region. But is BNB capable of rejecting bearish desire in the short term?

Indications from the daily chart showed that BNB was not entirely in a safety net because of the Directional Movement Index (DMI) signs. At the time of writing, the -DMI (red) was 22.01 while the +DMI (green) was 27.64.

Although the greens seemed higher, the Average Directional Index (ADX) did not confirm a sustained movement yet. At press time, the ADX (yellow) was 19.48. Since this indicator value was below 25, it meant that the BNB trend was not extremely strong.

However, the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) seemed to be closing higher than the previous days. If maintained, it could carve out a bullish outcome for BNB depending on the investors’ sentiment.

Soaring on the BNB chain

Further, the strife that hit the crypto topography last week could not hinder the BNB chain from registering landmarks with activities therein.

The metric measures the number of users who make the most out of their crypto assets by trading. The chain was also able to meet up the WAU number with an average daily transaction of 3.41 million.

Additionally, many comments from the CZ revelation aligned with a possible bullish market due to the exchange action. Notably, a few people in the crypto community believed that buying pressure would soon resume. And in response, could catapult the market in the upward direction. Consider this tweet, for instance. 

#BNB #crypto2023 #Binance #czbinance #koinmilyoner

After being shut down by U.S. regulators on Sunday, crypto-friendly Signature Bank director and former Congressman Barney Frank claimed they had “no indication of problems.” They suggested the bank’s closure was a “strong anti-crypto message” from regulators. 

Following the Signature director’s comments, the Department of Financial Services (DFS) claimed that the bank’s resolution “had nothing to do with crypto,” according to a report by Fortune Magazine. A Spokesperson for the Department of Financial Services told Fortune:

The decision to take possession of the bank and hand it over to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) was based on the current status of the bank and its ability to do business in a safe and sound manner on Monday

Regulators Targeted Crypto Banks?

Despite the statements of Signature Bank director Barney Frank, the DFS told Fortune that with large withdrawal requests looming and increasing, the Department of Financial Services worked with board members and executives to evaluate the financial position of the pro-crypto bank. The regulator also evaluated the bank’s ability to meet withdrawal demands from its customers. 

According to the banking regulator, the DFS alleges that the bank’s closure was related to its inability to provide “reliable and consistent data,” which led to a significant crisis of confidence in its leadership.

Commenting on the case, Austin Campbell, former chief risk officer at blockchain infrastructure platform Paxos, warned that even if the Signature acquisition were unrelated to the bank’s crypto activities, the DFS’s actions would “damage” its reputation with the crypto industry. He added:

Regardless of what DFS’s intentions were, it was taken extremely negatively by the crypto community, and it will negatively impact trust in the DFS long term.

With over 20 years in the market, Signature Bank became the third regional bank to collapse in a week, following the collapse of other crypto-friendly banks such as Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. 

The former partner of the fallen bank and US-based exchange Gemini stated that the company had zero customer funds and zero Gemini dollars (GUSD) at Signature. In addition, the company claimed that all Gemini customer dollars are held at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and State Street Bank. They concluded:

We continue to actively monitor counterparty risk due to banking partnerships to prevent any impact to Gemini customers.

The collapse of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank has created a domino effect on the banking sector of the U.S., pushing other regional banks in the country to the brink of a collapse and affecting the stock market and European banks.

#Binance #crypto2023 #koinmilyoner #Bullish #BNB

Cardano price tanked 22% in just 20 trading days.

ADA bulls are under pressure from bears, who have been successful in squashing any upside attempt.

Expect to see the pressure build at $0.30 as another leg lower points to $0.265 as the next support.

Cardano (ADA) price is seeing its most important audience leaving price action at large. Medium-term investors are heading for the exit as several dark clouds form above the cryptocurrency industry. Already two banks have collapsed in the US. The uncertainty is making investors choose cash instead of leaving it at risk in Cardano.

Cardano price sees bears clawing the life out of bulls

Cardano price is in funeral mode as it becomes clear that the bull run for 2023 is dead and buried. With bears thus far successful in squashing any breakout attempt, it has become clear that bears are nowhere near cashing in on their profitable short positions. Proof of that is the many red markups on the red descending trend line that demonstrates such huge respect.

ADA only has a few cents to go to hit $0.30 with the monthly S2 and a pivotal level all falling in line very close to one another. Expect enormous pressure on that area with bears reluctant to start buying and cash in on their profit. Seeing bearish momentum is on the bears’ side, expect to see a sharp move lower toward $0.265 with another 13% on top of the already 22% loss from the past three weeks.

From a technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could trigger some buying in ADA regardless. Several automated trading engines will have notices that the RSI is oversold, which means that a small pause should get underway. Do not expect a sudden 180-degree move up, but rather a pop toward $0.324 is possible if bulls can break that red descending trend line.

#cardano #ada #koinmilyoner #bitcoin #buildtogether

The Swiss Bankers Association released a white paper on how Swiss banks can support the development of the country’s digital economy. A Swiss franc “joint” deposit token is the solution the group settled on. 

Stablecoins have limited penetration in the Swiss financial system, even as end-to-end digitization is becoming more common in business models, and no Swiss stablecoins are accessible by the general public, the paper says.

The authors of the paper suggest a variety of stablecoins — that is, a deposit token “issued by regulated and adequately supervised intermediaries” — issued and redeemed by smart contracts and denominated in Swiss francs. The token could be designed as a ledger-based security, rather than a set of instructions, to provide it with the greatest potential.

The paper identifies three design options for a deposit token: Standardized tokens that any commercial bank can issue with a uniform standard, colored tokens that are issued by commercial banks to any standards they choose, and joint tokens that are issued by a licensed and supervised special purpose vehicle consisting of participating banks. The authors prefer the last choice.

A joint deposit token would facilitate money creation due to its flexibility, have low fees and could earn interest when held in bank accounts. It would be less liable to runs than tokens issued by individual banks. Furthermore:

“From a technical standpoint, all the economic and legal requirements that have been identified can be met. […] In principle, the DT should operate on a public blockchain with additional protocols to ensure sufficient privacy and transaction efficiency.

The token would ideally be a layer-2 solution usable in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and capable of self-custody or bank custody.

Deposit tokens are a relative newcomer to the ranks of digital currencies. According to a recent overview in The Washington Post, they originated in Project Guardian, an initiative the Monetary Authority of Singapore launched with several financial institutions in May 2022 that sought to explore DeFi applications in wholesale funding markets.

JPMorgan, one of the participants in Project Guardian, executed the first DeFi trade on a public blockchain as part of that project. JPMorgan and project participant Oliver Wyman released a paper discussing the merits of deposit token technology in February.

#Binance #BTC #BNB #koinmilyoner #BullRun

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao acknowledged the changes in stablecoins and banks in the crypto ecosystem. 

The world’s largest exchange by trade volume has transparently converted $1 billion Industry Recovery Initiative fund to BTC, BNB and ETH. 

CZ took a dig at the banks faced with voluntary liquidation and collapse, recommending they do a Proof-of-Reserve for transparency. 

Binance, the world’s largest exchange by trade volume recently announced changes to its $1 billion industry recovery fund. The exchange's CEO, Changpeng Zhao took a dig at banks asking them to increase transparency and do a Proof-of-Reserve using Merkle trees. 

Binance’s $1 billion Industry Recovery Initiative fund turns to Bitcoin, Ethereum and BNB

The collapse of FTX exchange and Alameda Trading had a domino effect on cryptocurrency lenders, institutions and exchanges. Taking note of the effect and the need for an infusion of capital, Binance announced the Industry Recovery Initiative (IRI) in the last week of November. 

The exchange announced a $1 billion fund that will support crypto projects struggling with liquidity issues due to FTX's collapse. The fund held stablecoins as well, as part of the $1 billion. However the de-peg and collapse of USDC and subsequently other stablecoins in the crypto ecosystem has changed the landscape and dynamics for crypto market participants. 

Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of Binance addressed the uncertainty and offered the conversion of the recovery fund to Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Coin (BNB) as a solution to alleviate concerns of crypto projects and traders. 

Interestingly, CZ took a dig at banks, asking them to share their Proof-of-Reserves for increased transparency. The Binance CEO acknowledged that the exchange is looking for a new banking partner. The crypto trading platform recently distanced itself from the crypto-friendly Silvergate bank that announced voluntary liquidation. 

All these banks are audited, right? Crazy idea: maybe banks should do a Proof-of-Reserve using merkle trees? ‍♂️ Even if it is not 100%, we should know the %, right? Transparency.

— CZ Binance (@cz_binance) March 13, 2023

The industry giant’s move is expected to return public confidence to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum and the exchange’s native token BNB. 

#czbinance #Binance #bitcoin #Ethereum #koinmilyoner

Bitcoin price shows a strong surge in buying pressure that has triggered a 22% upswing in the last three days.

This uptick is now facing a question, retrace and rebuild momentum or continue the ascent and tag $30,000.

Investors need to watch out for signs emerging on a lower timeframe to determine where BTC is headed next.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has recovered the losses it experienced by the end of last week. The sell-off was caused mainly due to failing banks in the United States which in turn triggered a depeg in major US-based stablecoins. However, by the end of the week, there were assurances that the Federal Reserve would make affected investors whole, which instilled confidence and catalyzed this recovery rally. 

Also read: USDC mayhem catalyzes recovery rally in Uniswap and Curve DAO

Bitcoin price at an inflection point 

Bitcoin price slipped below its ascending parallel channel on March 2 and what followed next was four long days of tight consolidation. The sell-off that began in the 2nd week of March accelerated, leading to 10% losses by March 9. 

As the US banks started collapsing consecutively, the stablecoin de-peg caused panic in the markets, pushing holders to swap their affected stables into other safer alternatives like unaffected stablecoins, including USDT, BUSD and TUSD. Others had a more creative approach and swapped their USDC to BTC. Some market participants purchased USDC at a discount, hoping that USDC would go back to the peg. 

Additionally, assurances from the concerned authorities were the key that initiated the rally. Following this was Biannce CEO openly stating that he would convert the $1 billion of the Industry Recovery Fund into Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Binance coin (BNB)

So far, Bitcoin price has managed to overcome the $23,000 hurdle and is currently hovering around $24,290 after collecting the buy-stop liquidity (BSL) resting above $24,000. There is another set of BSL above the $25,000 psychological level.

If Bitcoin price manages to flip this resistance barrier into a support floor, it would trigger a rally to the next major hurdle at $28,000 and the next psychological level at $30,000.

Exploring BTC’s bearish case and factoring in US CPI

While the bullish outlook for Bitcoin price is mainly driven due to panic and frenzy, investors need to be cautious of jumping on the bull train at the wrong time. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement on March 14 at 12:30 GMT is a key event that will potentially turn the tide.

Typically, a higher-than-anticipated CPI number would be bad news for investors since it would warrant tighter interest rates from the Fed. A tighter interest rate, especially a 50 basis point (BPS) hike in the decision, will be better for the US Dollar and not so much for the risk-on assets like cryptos or the stock market. 

To summarize, a higher CPI would be bearish for Bitcoin price in the short-term, i.e., BTC could plummet in the short-term, causing bulls that hopped on the long-only trade late to likely get liquidated.

However, the chart attached below shows a different outlook, an opposing one over longer durations. Specifically, Bitcoin price shows a steady decline over the course of when CPI comes in hotter-than-expected

There were two non-events where BTC rallied instead of dropping when the CPI number came in higher than the consensus. 

So, all-in-all, investors who are confident in their bullish positions need to rethink their stance as CPI is more than likely going to come in hotter. The reason for this can be found in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on March 8, where he described that the inflation was growing and their efforts so far were not enough. This hawkish stance suggests the possibility of the CPI coming in hotter-than-anticipated, which could cause the markets to drop, catching the bulls off-guard. 

A daily candlestick close below the $22,419 level will invalidate the bullish thesis for Bitcoin price. A breakdown of a critical support floor could potentially plunge BTC into the weekly Fair Value Gap’s (FVG) midpoint at $18,783.

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