According to Odaily, Goldman Sachs economists have increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession next year from 15% to 25%. Despite this, they emphasize that there are several reasons not to be overly concerned about a recession, even with a significant rise in unemployment rates. Led by Jan Hatzius, the economists stated, 'We still believe the risk of a recession is limited. The overall economy appears to be in good shape, with no major financial imbalances, and the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut interest rates quickly if necessary.'It is noteworthy that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Federal Reserve is less aggressive compared to JPMorgan and Citigroup. Hatzius' team anticipates the Fed will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November, and December. In contrast, JPMorgan and Citigroup expect a 50 basis point cut in September. Goldman Sachs' report states, 'Our forecast assumes that job growth will rebound in August, and the FOMC will consider a 25 basis point rate cut sufficient to address any downside risks. If we are wrong and the August jobs report is as weak as July's, a 50 basis point cut in September is possible.'The economists also expressed skepticism about the U.S. labor market facing a rapid deterioration risk. They argue that job vacancies indicate demand remains robust, and there are no apparent shocks triggering a downturn.

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Predicting recessions remains a complex task, with traditional indicators like unemployment rates and inverted yield curves being commonly monitored. However, unconventional signs can also offer clues.
Amid current financial uncertainty, both investors and consumers are wary of a potential recession. Despite the guidance of indicators such as the inverted yield curve and the SAHM Rule, which are currently flashing red, predictions about economic downturns have been imprecise recently.
What could be the pending economic issues?
Peter C. Earle, a senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research, highlights that while informal indicators may not be conclusive on their own, their combined occurrence can point to broader economic issues. One such indicator is the "Lipstick Effect," which posits that increased lipstick sales signal economic downturns. This theory suggests that as consumers cut back on big-ticket items, they opt for smaller, affordable luxuries like lipstick. Similar trends can be observed in sales of items like nail polish, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior during tough times.
The "Stripper Index" offers another unusual economic indicator. This theory suggests that reduced tips for exotic dancers may indicate broader financial difficulties, as people cut back on discretionary spending. This index mirrors trends seen in other service industries reliant on tips, such as restaurants.
Is dating app usage increasing the economic strain?
An increase in dating app usage can also signal economic strain. During prosperous periods, people tend to meet potential partners through in-person activities. However, during downturns, dating apps often see higher engagement as people seek less expensive ways to meet others, a trend noted during the 2008 financial crisis.
Business disputes and insolvencies are also prevalent in recessionary periods. Increased conflicts among business partners and a rise in corporate bankruptcies—up 30% from 2022 to 2023—can indicate financial strain. Law firms often report more business disputes during economic downturns.