The 4-hour time frame also clearly shows that Bitcoin has begun an upward correction against a new downward trend. Since the price lows near the level of $40,746 were broken, we fully assume that the downward movement is not yet complete. Of course, as always, many experts are inclined to believe that Bitcoin will rise in price again, but let us remind you that we are not adherents of the point of view of the eternal growth of Bitcoin. At this time, Bitcoin has corrected upward by exactly 50% Fibonacci, so it is quite reasonable to expect a new round of downward movement. Targets are below $38,500. Meanwhile, analysts at CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin miner reserves have fallen to July 2021 lows. Experts also noted a sharp influx of Bitcoin coins to exchange addresses. They believe that a massive sell-off may occur in the next few days, which will lead to an inevitable fall in the rate of the first cryptocurrency. According to them, Bitcoin may fall below $40,000. It is noted that many miners are trying to get rid of their reserves before the “halving”, which is due to occur at the end of April and will lead to a reduction in rewards by 50%. It is also reported that small traders and investors may join the sales amid fears of a strong fall in Bitcoin. As we see, the fall of the first cryptocurrency, as they say, is brewing. Let us recall that, in our opinion, Bitcoin could or can count on growth in 2024 based on three main factors: halving, a reduction in Fed rates and the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. Let us also recall that the market always tries to work out a future event in advance. This is the basic principle of the market: buy on rumors, sell on facts. If so, then the factors for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and the reduction in Fed rates have already been worked out, because they have been known about them for more than a year. We also believe that Bitcoin’s rise from $15,000 to almost $50,000 was not out of the blue. Investors and traders processed the information available to them.Thus, we do not expect the first cryptocurrency to strengthen significantly in 2024. Bitcoin ETFs have not led to mass adoption by institutional traders. Halving occurs every four years and cannot double the price of the first cryptocurrency every time. In the near future, we expect a stronger correction than what we have seen in recent weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency began to correct. We believe that the downward movement is not yet complete, and the rebound from the 50.0% Fibonacci level ($43,768) can be used for new sales. Targets for the new fall are scattered in the range of $38,500-$31,000. We see no reason to resume the growth of the first cryptocurrency at this time.#Write2Earn #TradeNTell

We can assume that the attempt to gain a foothold below the Ichimoku cloud on the 24-hour time frame ended in failure. A breakout of the Senkou Span B line happened, but it turned out to be false. At this time, the cryptocurrency has worked the Kijun-sen line (as we predicted), from which it has rebounded and, accordingly, may resume its fall. We believe that the downward movement is not yet complete and are waiting for its next round. Meanwhile, the head of the Ark Invest investment fund, Cathie Wood, once again gave a bunch of compliments to digital gold. According to her, Bitcoin is growing relative to gold and is superior to it as a means of hedging risks. Ms. Wood said that Bitcoin allows you to protect your funds in conditions of economic uncertainty. She referred to the events of 2023, when Bitcoin showed sharp growth amid the bankruptcy of three large banks in the United States. In her opinion, investors trust the traditional banking system and fiat money less and less. With the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, investment volumes in the first cryptocurrency will only increase as institutional traders now have an easy and secure way to invest in cryptocurrency. It is worth noting that in the States, 2024 may be quite difficult, although everything in this world is relative. Some experts continue to expect a recession from the American economy, which will certainly lead to increased unemployment and a crisis in the banking segment. Many large companies have announced mass layoffs. Thus, the situation in 2023 may be repeated, when Bitcoin rises against the backdrop of investors fleeing traditional banking investments.At the same time, not all experts believe that Bitcoin will overtake gold. For example, one of the leading Bloomberg analysts, Mike McGlone, believes that market expectations for a Fed rate cut may not affect the value of the first cryptocurrency. It is believed that “tight” monetary policy reduces the demand for risky assets, which includes Bitcoin, but this time the situation may be different. We believe that in any case, the potential Fed rate cut has already been taken into account by the market. Bitcoin has been growing for more than a year, and all this time the Fed rates have either increased or remained at their maximum value. The factor of rate cuts has already been taken into account by the market. On the 24-hour time frame, Bitcoin rolled back slightly, but we believe that the fall will resume, since the market has already fully taken into account the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and is now taking profits on longs. Therefore, we believe that buying now is not advisable, but short positions with a target of $34,267 are yes. Only around the levels of $34,267 and $31,000 will we consider the restoration of the bullish trend.#Write2Earn #TradeNTell

For the last seven days, Bitcoin quotes have been within a local consolidation movement with minimal trading volumes. In such a situation, a “triangle” began to form on the daily BTCUSD chart, which indicates a high probability of an impulse exit in one of the directions. Also, during the corresponding period, the volume of purchases of BTC coins increased significantly, which once again confirms the key influence of Grayscale on testing the support level of $38.5k.Despite the growing positivity in the cryptocurrency market, there is no reason to believe that the price of Bitcoin will move beyond the “triangle” in an upward direction. Moreover, the asset has not violated the global structure of the downward trend, so the likelihood of a downward movement still remains. An important factor that can directly affect the further movement of the Bitcoin price will be the speech of the Fed members regarding their vision of monetary policy. Speeches by Fed members After the meeting of the regulator and the restrained rhetoric of Jerome Powell, local pessimism reigned in the markets, provoked by uncertainty regarding the start of easing monetary policy. The Fed chief also noted that in the long term, the United States is on an unsustainable financial path, as public debt is growing much faster than the economy. Against the backdrop of such statements, investment activity, especially in the crypto market, has decreased significantly. That's why investors will be looking for glimmers of hope in speeches from other Fed members.Today at 17:00 GMT, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Meister, who has voting rights on the Fed Board of Governors, will give a speech. The upcoming event puts pressure on cryptocurrency quotes, as negative sentiment continues to prevail among investors. However, if Meister declares that there is every reason to start lowering the rate, contrary to investors’ expectations, then this will provoke a BOOM of positivity in the crypto market. Investors resumed buying BTC Despite the pessimistic short-term prospects for the crypto market and Bitcoin against the backdrop of keeping the key rate high, long-term investors are resuming the accumulation of BTC coins. According to Santiment data, wallets with balances of 1,000 - 10,000 BTC have been actively buying cryptocurrency over the past two weeks. Also adding positivity was the news that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds from BlackRock and Fidelity entered the top 10 largest American ETFs in terms of asset inflows with a result of more than $4.8 billion.At the same time, The Block analysts report that transaction volumes on the Bitcoin network reached a maximum in September 2022 with a result of more than $1.21 trillion. This indicates the high popularity of BTC even during correctional movements. And the fly in the ointment was the company Genesis, which is going through bankruptcy proceedings and asked the court to allow the sale of shares in Grayscale trusts, which could negatively affect Bitcoin quotes. BTCUSD Analysis As of February 6, Bitcoin continues to consolidate near the $42.6k level. The main goal of BTC bulls remains a breakdown of the 0.5 Fibo level at $43.3k, however, after several unsuccessful attempts to do this, the price of the asset has entered a consolidation phase. The successful implementation of this idea is hampered by relatively low trading volumes: as of February 6, $18 billion. These volumes are also not enough for Bitcoin bears to continue the downward movement to $40.5k and below $40k. Over the past 24 hours, the situation around Bitcoin has not changed dramatically, which means that the asset can either go to the formation of the second shoulder of the G&P or resume its bullish rally, consolidating above $45k. The cryptocurrency managed to break the structure of the local downward trend, consolidating above $42k, but subsequently the upward movement stopped. This suggests that sellers' positions above $43k are still strong, and the likelihood of a resumption of the downward movement is significant. Results There have been no significant changes in the structure of Bitcoin price movements: the asset continues to consolidate near the $42.6k level with minimal price impulses. The main reason for BTC's weakness is another flow of liquidity into the US Dollar Index and Treasuries, as well as gold, amid geopolitical instability. In such a situation, BTC investors can only wait for the approaching halving, which will significantly increase Bitcoin’s chances of reaching a new high.#Write2Earn #TradeNTeel

Currently, the key aspect for cryptocurrency markets is the degree of institutional interest, as this will influence medium-term results. Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, there was a significant influx of capital. But what about the demand for crypto ETPs? Which alternative coins are still attracting interest from institutional investors? The CoinShares Weekly Report sheds light on these issues. What's with Institutional Interest in Cryptocurrencies Last week, inflows into cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $708 million. Since the start of 2024, total inflows have exceeded $1.6 billion, indicating that the market has moved beyond the negative bear market atmosphere. The total volume of assets under management of cryptocurrency funds has reached the threshold of $53 billion. This is an extremely impressive figure that illustrates the potential of the industry. Trading volumes decreased slightly last week. Weekly volume was $10.6 billion, down from last week's estimated $8.2 billion, but that's not a permanent decline. Especially considering the low average volumes of $1.5 billion in 2023, we can say that this is quite satisfactory. The largest influx of funds was recorded in the United States, where spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched. The inflow of $703 million represented 99% of the total funds flowing into all cryptocurrency funds. Despite the negative price outlook, there was an outflow of $5.3 million from funds shorting Bitcoin.Currently, the key aspect for cryptocurrency markets is the degree of institutional interest, as this will influence medium-term results. Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, there was a significant influx of capital. But what about the demand for crypto ETPs? Which alternative coins are still attracting interest from institutional investors? The CoinShares Weekly Report sheds light on these issues. What's with Institutional Interest in Cryptocurrencies Last week, inflows into cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $708 million. Since the start of 2024, total inflows have exceeded $1.6 billion, indicating that the market has moved beyond the negative bear market atmosphere. The total volume of assets under management of cryptocurrency funds has reached the threshold of $53 billion. This is an extremely impressive figure that illustrates the potential of the industry. Trading volumes decreased slightly last week. Weekly volume was $10.6 billion, down from last week's estimated $8.2 billion, but that's not a permanent decline. Especially considering the low average volumes of $1.5 billion in 2023, we can say that this is quite satisfactory. The largest influx of funds was recorded in the United States, where spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched. The inflow of $703 million represented 99% of the total funds flowing into all cryptocurrency funds. Despite the negative price outlook, there was an outflow of $5.3 million from funds shorting Bitcoin. The rhetoric of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is a hint at the prospects of Bitcoin. Crypto trader and analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to the statement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He said that the rhetoric creates the preconditions for an optimistic view of Bitcoin. Powell's assertion is based on the belief that the United States is on an unsustainable path with its debt. According to the head of the US central bank, this could lead investors to doubt the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and abandon the US dollar in favor of safer hedges, potentially increasing the shift to Bitcoin. Powell's views underscore the pressing problem of mounting US debt, which is growing faster than the economy. As Ali Martinez notes, this may cause investors to doubt the government's ability to meet its financial obligations. Consequently, there is an increasing likelihood of a massive shift from the US dollar to alternative assets, especially Bitcoin. While Powell highlights the vulnerabilities of the traditional financial system, interest is increasingly focusing on Bitcoin as a potential hedge against economic uncertainty. Investors concerned about the volatile trajectory of US debt may increasingly turn to decentralized digital currencies such as Bitcoin to preserve their wealth. Bitcoin becomes a hedge amid economic uncertainty While the US dollar has long been the world's reserve currency, Powell's warning points to a potential change in that status. The possibility that investors will abandon the dollar in favor of Bitcoin as a hedge from economic instability is becoming increasingly relevant. As the traditional financial environment falters, the decentralized nature of Bitcoin offers an alternative attractive to those seeking financial security. The impending transition from the US dollar to Bitcoin raises an important question: how will it affect the broader financial landscape? Investors who diversify their portfolios with Bitcoin can impact not only the cryptocurrency market, but also traditional financial markets. The dynamics between traditional and digital assets are evolving, and investors are developing strategies to successfully navigate this changing environment. Balancing the Economic Landscape Powell's warning could be a catalyst, reviving interest in Bitcoin. As investors overestimate their vulnerability to risk, volatility in the cryptocurrency market may increase. However, this volatility can provide an opportunity for strategic investors to benefit from market movements and position themselves favorably for economic changes. Powell's statements regarding the instability of the US economy position Bitcoin as an attractive alternative for investors seeking to avoid traditional financial uncertainty. The potential shift from the US dollar to Bitcoin highlights the changing nature of global finance. As investors navigate this economic landscape, they are keeping a close eye on the opportunities created by the intersection of traditional and digital assets. Bitcoin May Remain Sideways Since Bitcoin's price rebounded from levels below $40,000, its price has stabilized and has seen a significant decline in volume. Every time prices rise above $43,000, bearish activity increases, causing the cryptocurrency to return to its original positions. Given the current trading pattern, it appears that Bitcoin price may remain stable within a range for a long time, which could be positive for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin price started February trading in the same range, remaining at $43,000. This has resulted in market equilibrium being maintained and determining the next possible move can be a challenge. Therefore, some analysts suggest that in the coming months the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range from $49,000 to $38,000. In the near future, the price may recover to the $48,000 level after continued stabilization. In addition, it is possible that prices will sharply increase and reach a new historical high in the third or fourth quarter of 2024.#Write2Earn #TradeNTell

Um novo relatório da exchange de criptomoedas Bitfinex mostra que a aprovação de um ETF de Bitcoin pela Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dos EUA impactou as reservas de mineração. Essas, por sua vez, pressionam o preço da principal criptomoeda. Os mineradores de Bitcoin estão vendendo suas reservas de ativos ou usando-as para atualizar sua capacidade, à medida que o influxo de fundos para as exchanges de criptomoedas continua. Eles são motivados pelo aumento dos preços e pela necessidade de realizar capital para atualizar o equipamento de mineração antes do halving.Um novo relatório da exchange de criptomoedas Bitfinex mostra que a aprovação de um ETF de Bitcoin pela Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dos EUA impactou as reservas de mineradores. Essas, por sua vez, pressionam o preço da principal criptomoeda. Os mineradores de Bitcoin estão vendendo suas reservas de ativos ou usando-as para atualizar sua capacidade à medida que o influxo de fundos para as exchanges de criptomoedas continua. Eles são motivados pelo aumento dos preços e pela necessidade de realizar capital para atualizar o equipamento de mineração antes do halving. Por que os mineradores estão sendo forçados a vender Bitcoin De acordo com o relatório, as reservas de ativos dos mineradores caíram para 1,826 milhão, o menor valor desde junho de 2021, à medida que as empresas estocaram algumas das moedas mineradas durante a temporada de baixa de 2022. Em 12 de janeiro, um dia após a aprovação do ETF, US$ 1 bilhão em BTC minerado foi transferido para as exchanges, estabelecendo uma alta de seis anos em saídas de mineradores, de acordo com a empresa de análise Glassnode. Isso ocorre porque o preço do Bitcoin caiu quase 9% após a aprovação de vários ETFs de Bitcoin à vista. Embora o oposto fosse esperado, muitos analistas citaram a enorme entrada de fundos no quarto trimestre de 2023 como a razão para o ligeiro declínio após a aprovação. No entanto, houve uma enorme entrada semanal em torno do líder de mercado na frente institucional. Dinâmica da saída líquida de Bitcoin Em 1º de fevereiro, os especialistas da Bitfinex notaram que 13.500 BTC deixaram as carteiras dos mineradores nas bolsas, estabelecendo outro recorde como a maior saída negativa. No entanto, nas 24 horas seguintes, as entradas foram em torno de 10.000 BTC, resultando em saídas líquidas de 3.500 BTC e 10.200 BTC desde a aprovação. As entradas registradas posteriormente podem ser devido às empresas de mineração reequilibrando suas posições antes dos principais eventos. Analistas apontam para liquidez operacional, ajustes estratégicos e aumento de preços em 2023 como razões para saídas líquidas de capital. Durante o ciclo de baixa, as empresas de mineração sofreram enormes perdas, levando a vendas diretas de equipamentos e ao uso de reservas para se manterem à tona. Halving influencia decisões de mineradores No entanto, a entrada de investidores institucionais registrada em 2023 desencadeou um movimento de preço a favor dos mineradores, compensando perdas enquanto eles buscavam expansão.“Essa transferência significativa de BTC de mineradores para bolsas reflete a resposta das empresas às condições de mercado e talvez sua necessidade de liquidar ativos para cobrir custos operacionais de gerenciamento de risco.” O fluxo de reservas de mineradores de Bitcoin para bolsas é importante porque mostra a quantidade de BTC acumulada pelos mineradores em um determinado período. Também reflete a situação atual do mercado, pois as saídas para bolsas geralmente representam a intenção de vender. O próximo halving do Bitcoin é um fator no recente descarregamento de ativos em bolsas, com os mineradores levantando capital para expandir sua capacidade e equipamento. Como resultado do halving, as recompensas serão reduzidas em 50%, o que incentivará os mineradores de Bitcoin a procurar por equipamentos mais eficientes. O sentimento negativo do investidor pode ser um prenúncio de uma corrida otimista No momento, embora haja uma calmaria geral no mercado de criptomoedas, a popular plataforma de dados online Santiment disse que o sentimento negativo descendente prevaleceu no mercado e entre os investidores na semana passada e nesta semana. Santiment citou a incapacidade do mercado de exibir efetivamente o padrão de alta ao qual os traders se acostumaram desde o ciclo de alta que começou em outubro passado como uma das razões para a prevalência do sentimento negativo. Afirmando que o sentimento negativo aqui se tornou ainda mais forte em relação às maiores criptomoedas, Santiment enfatizou que o sentimento negativo apareceu pela primeira vez em mais de seis meses. Finalmente, Santiment observou que há um sinal de alta por trás da crescente negatividade em relação a BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, ADA e SOL. Investidores que exibem ansiedade, medo ou incerteza em relação a mais de uma criptomoeda importante indicam uma alta probabilidade de um aumento de curto prazo. "Há um sentimento de baixa perceptível permeando o discurso da criptomoeda esta semana, pois os preços do mercado de criptomoedas permanecem voláteis e os traders são incapazes de exibir o padrão de alta usual ao qual se acostumaram desde o início do ciclo de alta em outubro.Quando os investidores começam a se preocupar e mostram insatisfação com alguns ativos grandes, é um sinal de que os valores de mercado têm mais probabilidade de ver uma recuperação futura. “Os mercados historicamente se moveram em direções que as pessoas menos esperavam, resultando em ralis que pegaram muitos investidores de short de surpresa.”

After falling by $10,000, the Bitcoin cryptocurrency decided to correct itself slightly. We can assume that the attempt to gain a foothold below the Ichimoku cloud on the 24-hour time frame ended in failure. A breakout of the Senkou Span B line happened, but it turned out to be false. At this time, the cryptocurrency has worked the Kijun-sen line (as we predicted), from which it has rebounded and, accordingly, may resume its fall. We believe that the downward movement is not yet complete and are waiting for its next round. Meanwhile, Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel said in an interview that Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of 2025, and its volatility will become significantly lower. According to Thiel, Bitcoin continues its development path and will become more stable every year. Thiel also considers Bitcoin the best investment vehicle because it has one advantage that money or stocks do not have. This plus is the limited supply of coins. The supply of Bitcoin on the market will decrease every year, which will support its further growth. Each subsequent “halving” will mean a halving of the reward for miners. Consequently, they will mine fewer blocks and coins, and the supply in the market is bound to decrease. Thiel also believes that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF will lead to increased investment from institutions and large investors. At the same time, Mr. Thiel believes that there are also high risks when investing in Bitcoin. In particular, he noted that factors such as global geopolitics, the US dollar, Fed monetary policy, inflation and others continue to impact volatile Bitcoin. Due to its increased volatility, many potential investors refuse to buy it.From our point of view, Bitcoin can certainly continue to rise, but we remain skeptical about all forecasts like “$100,000 by the end of the year” or “$150,000 in 2025.” Mr. Thiel forgets that in addition to a decrease in supply, for Bitcoin to grow, it also requires maintaining the current volume of demand. We cannot say that the demand for Bitcoin is falling globally, but still Bitcoin remains just a piece of code, unlike gold. We would also like to remind you that limited emission is a very conditional concept for cryptocurrency, which, in fact, is a piece of software code. And if there is code, then there are programmers who can correct it. On the 24-hour time frame, Bitcoin rolled back slightly, but we believe that the fall will resume, since the market has already fully taken into account the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and is now taking profits on longs. Therefore, we think that buying now is not advisable, but short positions with a target of $34,267 are yes. This is a very real prospect, despite all the mind-blowing forecasts that “experts” regularly share with us. Only around the levels of $34,267 and $31,000 will we consider the restoration of the bullish trend.#Write2Earn