TRB这波直接快一倍了！！

4 de novembro, os resultados da eleição nos EUA estarão disponíveis, vamos discutir brevemente como dois resultados impactarão o mercado de criptomoedas.

Resultado 1: Trump eleito.

1. A nova plataforma do Partido Republicano se tornará mais importante: encerramento da repressão do governo dos EUA às criptomoedas, defesa dos direitos de mineração de Bitcoin e criptomoedas, autoconservação e liberdade de negociação.

2. Trump nomeará um novo presidente da SEC, os três candidatos são figuras favoráveis ao mercado de criptomoedas, Dan Gallagher (Chief Legal Officer da Robinhood, que abraça totalmente o mercado de criptomoedas), Chris Giancarlo (ex-presidente da CFTC, apelidado de pai das criptos), Hester Peirce (um dos cinco comissários atuais da SEC, apelidada de mãe das criptos).

3. O departamento DOGE será oficialmente estabelecido, cortes orçamentários sempre geram polêmica, e a exposição do Dogecoin aumentará significativamente.

4. As moedas conceituais de Trump terão um impulso positivo a curto prazo.

Resultado 2: Harris eleita.

1. O avanço da regulamentação para o mercado de criptomoedas não será tão grande. Gary Gensler pode ser promovido a Secretário do Tesouro, entre os novos candidatos a presidente da SEC, apenas Chris Brummer é amigável às criptomoedas, mas ele vem de uma formação de professor de direito, e após assumir o cargo pode se comportar de maneira semelhante a Gary.

2. Trump pode ser preso, Musk pode ser alvo, empresas que apoiam Trump no mercado de criptomoedas podem ser perseguidas, especialmente aquelas que temem a ação da SEC e se aliaram a pessoas que entendem do assunto, como Kraken e Gemini. As moedas conceituais mencionadas podem enfrentar um grande desafio.

3. A política climática de Harris é desfavorável para a mineração POW de alto consumo energético.

4. No geral, deve surgir uma oportunidade de compra semelhante a 94. Afinal, o Partido Democrata e o grande financiador de Harris, BlackRock, ainda desejam expandir o ETF de Bitcoin e a tokenização.

Traders must memorize the fifteen rules

1. Protect your capital; survival is the first rule for investors.

2. As long as you are not greedy, making money is simple; stable small profits.

3. Focus on a few varieties, never go all in, follow the trend.

4. Do not over-leverage, do not hold positions, do not trade frequently.

5. Do not rush to buy, be decisive when selling, and do not delay stop losses.

6. Money can never be earned completely, but it can be lost completely.

7. If the stop loss is triggered, exit unconditionally; stop loss is always correct.

8. Whether short-term or long-term stability, cashing in is the safest.

9. What never changes in the market is that extremes lead to reversals.

10. Do not trade without market movement; missing trading opportunities is normal, just seize part of them.

11. Waiting for trading opportunities is always a hundred times better than searching for trading opportunities.

12. Stop trading after achieving daily profit targets; energy is limited.

13. Stop losses are yours, profits are given by the market.

14. Money comes from waiting, not from frequent trading.

15. A mindset is fragile in the face of desire; strictly follow trading strategies to trade, and achieve the alignment of knowledge and action.

2025年将会有普遍上涨季节，但结构将严重分化，强势热点和冷门之间的差距可能是几倍。

meme季节会有，而且将出现两年来最猛烈的一波，链上会有很多机会，至少能跑出来一两个千倍，但更多的将归零，对于初级投资者来说很难把握。

二级市场将出现一个新的明星项目，类似跑鞋的那种。

后面不会有新的赛道炒作，重点是ai、rwa、川普、贝莱德和灰度等各种概念。

不能再以单纯的市值理念投资，不要觉得某些市值很大就没什么空间，市值小的反而可能有很大空间。

我上面说了结构将严重分化，无人问津的项目也会跟着陪跑，但这属于最后的高光时刻。

这轮结束后，山寨将一片狼藉，为下一轮的大洗牌做准备。

The core of trading cryptocurrencies lies in precise timing: grasping the best moment to buy and sell.

The essence of trading wisdom can be summarized in two sentences: "Keep losses small and let profits run." The deeper meaning of this sentence is that once an abnormal trend in a token is detected, immediate stop-loss measures should be taken to control losses within the smallest range. Once a profit is gained, sufficient patience is required to allow small profits to gradually accumulate into larger ones.

When choosing a buying point, the primary task is to set a reasonable stop-loss point. The basis for buying tokens mainly includes three aspects: value analysis, technical analysis, and market cycles.

Some people tend to purchase tokens solely based on value analysis, deeply researching the value of the project itself while neglecting other factors. Others focus on technical analysis, believing that market sentiment is fully reflected in price and trading volume changes.

However, most traders tend to rely more on technical analysis. It is worth noting that the price of a token is actually a reflection of the future prospects of the company. Therefore, a more reasonable approach is to combine value analysis with token selection, and once potential tokens are found, primarily rely on technical analysis to guide operations. At the same time, always remember the principle of "cut losses short and let profits run," and learn to execute stop-losses in a timely manner.

Imagine, if you were a big player, how would you manipulate the public's psychology? The strategies of big players are often not complex. When they want to buy in, they may quietly increase trading volume gradually, causing prices to rise slowly; or they create an atmosphere of panic selling, triggering market fluctuations to buy in at lower prices. When they want to sell, they may first buy a portion, pushing up the price, and then look for the right moment to sell.

Regarding when to sell, this can be considered from two perspectives: first, how to set a take-profit point; second, after gaining profits, how to choose the right time to sell for profit. The tops and bottoms of tokens are often difficult to capture accurately, so traders should focus on capturing 70% of the middle fluctuation.

Remember, do not try to find the highest point of the token, as market trends are always difficult to predict. Deciding when to sell is often more challenging than deciding when to buy, as people long to break even when in loss and hope to gain more when in profit. This psychological struggle is a norm in trading.

牛中和熊初是最有操作空间和性价比的，对于老大哥而言可以算得上是牛中，而对于阿斗坊以及部分山寨而言只能算是牛初。

并且这个前置条件是真的有那么多天才交易员来接我们，eth和老大哥是可以算得上是严重偏离的，因为这个节点最起码要5000以上。

但是你可以发现它始终在3开头摆烂，所以不用着急。牛初的时候我们负责做多，熊初的时候我们负责做空。

可能到最后不一定会拥有很多金币，但是在这个过程中会有前所未有的快感，非常爽。而导致该场景的主要原因只是因为节奏对了。

理想中的乌托邦中每一个人都装不满金币，而实际上的现实场景10个人当中9个都没回本，还有一个已经彻底完蛋。这才符合真实逻辑。

Bull market trend hasn't changed:
At the end of 2022, the FTX collapse caused BTC to hit the bear market bottom of over 15,000. At that time, we bravely declared that BTC would eventually reach 100,000.

Unexpectedly, so soon, in December 2024, it was realized. We only guessed the beginning, not the ending. Altcoins' trends have diverged from BTC. Next, altcoins will definitely see significant gains alongside ETH's strength.

However, the cycles of altcoins are unpredictable, and as market predators, assessing the situation becomes particularly important. Buy when no one is paying attention, sell when the crowd is bustling. This is the best way for ordinary retail investors to make money, bar none.

1⃣️Mês de grandes eventos memorando

3 - Pagamento FTX
9 - Reunião de taxa de juros
10 - Dados de emprego não agrícola

11 - Sétimo lançamento da Starship
15 - Publicação dos dados do CPI

20 - Posse do presidente
25 - X inicia pagamentos em DOGE
30 - Publicação da decisão da taxa de juros

Não consegue segurar bons ativos de IA?

Pense bem, se você tivesse a oportunidade de voltar ao verão do DeFi de 2020 e tivesse a chance de conseguir 1% das participações em uni, comp e aave.

O que você faria?

É necessário acompanhar e pesquisar continuamente para realmente segurar os ativos que você considera promissores, assim como realizar lucros em ativos que não são promissores.

Powell's Latest News：

On Relationship with Trump

Powell expressed hope to establish a good relationship with the White House under Trump's leadership and his nominated candidate for Secretary of the Treasury. Trump stated on NBC's Meet the Press that there are no plans to remove Powell before his term ends in May 2026. However, the relationship between Powell and Trump remains uncertain, especially in light of the Federal Reserve's decision to possibly begin raising interest rates again, which could lead to new conflicts.

On Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations

Powell indicated in December that the Federal Reserve expects inflation to be higher than previously anticipated, projecting it to reach 2.5% by the end of 2025, instead of the previously forecasted 2.2%. This adjustment led the Federal Reserve to reduce its expected number of rate cuts from 4 to 2 next year. He also pointed out that the Federal Reserve still faces too many unknowns regarding how policies proposed by Trump, such as tariffs, will affect interest rate settings.

On the Rotation of Federal Reserve Voting Members

In 2025, Boston Fed President Collins, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, Kansas City Fed President George, and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will replace Cleveland Fed President Mester, San Francisco Fed President Daly, Richmond Fed President Barkin, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, becoming the new voting members. Among the new voters, except for Goolsbee who is the only "dove," Collins and Bullard are categorized as moderately "hawkish," while George is classified as moderately "hawkish," which may lead to more divisions within the FOMC of the Federal Reserve in 2025.

最后总结一下近期的重要资讯：
1、AI板块的几个大热门比如Virtual、AI16z、Griffain、Cookie、Swarms、Snai、Fai、Eliza、Goat等都大幅上涨。链上Virtual的市值创新高，达到了50亿美元。现在的涨势越来越集中在头部的大币种，小币种基本被甩在后头了。
2、合规币像XRP、XLM、ADA、IOTA、Hbar等出现反弹。现在交易所都在炒作美国合规的概念。
3、公链FTM也在上涨，而且FTM将进行链升级，变成新的链——Sonic。
4、Meme板块的Pengu上涨，而且大户也在持续提币。链上Meme的Kekius则暴跌，马斯克还把名字改回去了。
5、Desci板块的Uro和Rif大涨。BN的Desci新币$Bio要上所了。

2025, provavelmente será o ano do fim do mercado em alta das criptomoedas!

Mas, a seguir, será realmente um final de alta ou um mercado de baixa?
É difícil dizer, talvez todos estejam esperando para ver como será o desempenho após a volta do Trump ao poder.

O que você acha?
🙂🙂🙂

2025年一些预测:
1、比特币价格超过20万U
2、有新ETF获批
3、金融资产代币化上所
4、新比特币链上收益
5、会有Meme季
6、多家加密公司美国IPO
7、稳定币超4000亿美元
8、加密总市值超8万亿美元
9、一些国家宣布比特币为战略储备
10、狗狗币不会超过2
11、BRC20生态没有复苏
12、NFT有增长但没法达到上个牛市高度
13、Sol发生宕机
14、香港一家微策略类股票上线
15、抽象账户类交易所崭露头角
16、Ai agent推出的代币引领市场
17、sol超过500美金
18、DePin赛道有爆款
19、链游赛道有黑马
20、Sui超过10美金

1.2号BTC，ETH行情分析：

今日看点：
BTC：1小时、4小时级别回归健康水平，日线级别回归健康水平，日内预期维持震荡，观望回调支撑区间可考虑跟进，大周期预期并未减弱，日内下方支撑93200-93700，上方阻力96000-97000
ETH：1小时、4小时级别回归健康水平，日线级别回归健康水平，日内预期保持震荡，观望等待，日内下方支撑3300-3350，上方阻力3470-3520

Altcoins are following the mainstream and are experiencing a slight uptrend. Consider lightly entering during the day and wait for the new round of rising cycles. For already held altcoins, continue to hold SATS and sell off around 50. For medium-term holding, it can be looked at up to around 80. After reducing holdings in CKB, continue to hold and wait for ecological bursts. For those still holding FTM, it may be time to reduce holdings. POLYX can continue to be held, and maintain holding of ACT.
Fundamental news: None
Primary market information:
Recently, on-chain MEME has remained sluggish, so keep an eye on it. There are growing speculative expectations for DOGECAST, which has nearly doubled in the past few days. Those who have good positions can choose to reduce their holdings; personally, I suggest waiting for an explosion.

Depois do Ano Novo, o desempenho do mercado também começou a melhorar, o ETH manteve-se estável em 3300, muitas altcoins começaram a sair do fundo, tudo está se preparando para um grande bull market no primeiro trimestre. Após Musk trocar a imagem do sapo, o Pepe subiu e ficou lateral, os sapos KM na blockchain basicamente voltaram a zero, mas a IA na blockchain está alcançando novos máximos a cada dia, como ai16z, ELIZA, etc.
Existem muitas formas de rotação, como agora com o primeiro e segundo níveis também em rotação. A última onda de mercado sempre puxou os hotspots do primeiro nível, alguns dias com vários cachorros de ouro, tiraram o ACT, PNUT, etc., levando todos os pequenos investidores do segundo nível para o primeiro, e então começaram a puxar o segundo nível. Primeiro puxaram algumas criptomoedas antigas como DOGE, XRP, HAMB, etc., agora está muito semelhante à última onda, o primeiro nível de IA está fervendo, o segundo nível de IA como ARKM, IO, TAO ainda tem alguns pequenos movimentos hoje, mas provavelmente também é porque caiu demais. No entanto, esses certamente vão subir, além de muitos tokens meme que também já foram bem lavados, estamos de olho todos os dias, vendo aqueles que fazem movimentos primeiro.

Tonight at 21:30, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending December 28 will be announced, with a previous value of 219,000 and an expected value of 222,000. The importance rating of this data by Jin Ten is ★★★★☆.
Given the importance of this data, investors in the cryptocurrency market need to pay close attention. After the data is released, the market may experience rapid fluctuations, presenting many opportunities! While managing risk, seize the opportunities, drink heartily and eat generously!

币圈捞金秘籍：稳健派与精明派的赚钱绝招

在大牛市里，赚钱高手分为两种，你更像哪一种？

稳健派（“淡定哥”）：
这些人早早布局，重仓等待，像耐心的渔翁，直到牛市火爆才慢慢收割。他们不盯盘，不频繁操作，炒币只是生活中的小插曲，享受生活的同时稳稳赚取丰厚利润。

精明派（“老司机”）：
这些人深谙市场周期，了解何时进场、何时出场，像农耕高手般精准。机会来了，他们迅速出手，没机会时悠闲观望。分批买卖，控制风险，始终掌握市场节奏。

你更像“淡定哥”还是“老司机”呢？