muhammadmuqeem
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Crença firme no ciclo de alta do mercado do Bitcoin!
Em fevereiro de 2021, encontrei aleatoriamente um pedaço de papel em um hotel durante uma viagem de negócios e simplesmente desenhei os nós de tempo e a análise de diferenças múltiplas do ciclo histórico do Bitcoin. Naquele dia, estudei os dois ciclos anteriores de baixa e alta do Bitcoin. Ele já estava em um mercado altista naquele momento, então fiz uma inferência sobre o possível ponto temporal do ponto mais alto do mercado altista naquele ano. Naquela época, concluí que estávamos na faixa ascendente do terceiro ciclo de alta do Bitcoin neste momento, e o ponto mais alto ocorreria definitivamente em um determinado período de tempo. Naquela época, eu já havia bloqueado o momento do ponto mais alto do Bitcoin em novembro de 2021 (é claro que seu ponto mais alto acabou sendo 69.000, e eu o superestimei em mais de 20.000 dólares americanos). Esta é também a razão pela qual eliminei gradualmente a posição de Bitcoin de meados de novembro até o início de dezembro de 2021, quando estava em torno de 60.000, deixando apenas 10% da posição que mantive até agora. Em relação à inferência detalhada no início de 2021, ao prever o ponto mais alto do mercado altista naquele momento, publiquei-a naquele mês. A seguir está uma captura de tela da análise daquele ano. (Muitas pessoas no grande mercado em baixa do ano passado não perceberam, até olharem para trás, que novembro de 2021 foi o mês em que o último mercado em alta terminou?) À tarde, revisei os três primeiros ciclos de baixa e alta do Bitcoin de 2011 a 2021 , e as três primeiras quedas do Bitcoin.A correlação entre o intervalo e o fim da redução do balanço do Fed. O horário de início e término do próximo ciclo de mercado em alta foi basicamente determinado novamente. Como diz o ditado, a experiência é o melhor professor, às vezes melhor que a tecnologia. Por favor, acredite firmemente que o quarto ciclo de mercado altista do Bitcoin começará oficialmente em maio do próximo ano e ainda terminará em novembro-dezembro de 2025. Em circunstâncias especiais, será adiado para janeiro do ano seguinte. É inegável que todos os mercados em alta desde o nascimento do Bitcoin terminaram quase desde o final de um ano até janeiro do ano seguinte. Quando revisei as características dos três primeiros ciclos de alta do Bitcoin, também observei as características operacionais dos três primeiros ciclos de redução pela metade do Litecoin. Combinado com as características deste mês, também afirmei uma conclusão: o tempo de redução pela metade do Litecoin este ano é O a tendência está totalmente alinhada com as regras de funcionamento do seu ciclo histórico (as características específicas foram divulgadas na tarde do dia 31 de julho). Portanto, não precisamos ficar muito ansiosos com o atual mercado volátil, não fiquemos deprimidos e passemos pela próxima metade do ano, e poderemos receber novamente o momento de destaque no primeiro semestre do próximo ano! 💪Acredite nas regras de operação do grande ciclo do Bitcoin, esta é a sua verdadeira crença nele!
Traduzir
截至今天，2025上半年的美联储议息会议减息预期概率：
3月20日:利率不变概率94.0%，减息25基点概率6.0%；
5月8日:利率不变概率66.9%，减息25基点概率31.4%；
6月19日:利率不变概率25.0%，减息25基点概率51.3%。
ps：相对上周的变化，5.8美联储议息会议减息25基点的概率上升了10%左右，6.19议息会议减息25基点的概率下降了1.4%。可以初步预判，上半年减息一次25个基点锁定在5或6月的议息会议，6.19减息可能性目前来看最大，连续减息两次的可能性暂时不大。
最理想的还是6月减息一次，如果5月减息，6月不减，6-7月必定又要暴跌，7月日本加息来袭。
3月20日:利率不变概率94.0%，减息25基点概率6.0%；
5月8日:利率不变概率66.9%，减息25基点概率31.4%；
6月19日:利率不变概率25.0%，减息25基点概率51.3%。
ps：相对上周的变化，5.8美联储议息会议减息25基点的概率上升了10%左右，6.19议息会议减息25基点的概率下降了1.4%。可以初步预判，上半年减息一次25个基点锁定在5或6月的议息会议，6.19减息可能性目前来看最大，连续减息两次的可能性暂时不大。
最理想的还是6月减息一次，如果5月减息，6月不减，6-7月必定又要暴跌，7月日本加息来袭。
Traduzir
都在看好本周五晚上的“白宫加密峰会”会有多大的行情，我不看好。周五一个客观存在的偏空信息面（非农），一个人为制造的情绪面（峰会），无非又是上下制造大波动的把戏。在高点守株待兔空单介入，比没有底气的看是否能突破某些压力位要稳当得多。现阶段，反弹不具备延续的条件。
凌晨3点美联储楔皮书，注意扎针。
凌晨3点美联储楔皮书，注意扎针。
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btc 8w以下熊市中的现货抄底点：
78200（跌破就不能再接）
75000-73300（短期底）
65000-63600（短期底）
50000-48800（山腰）
38200（5w下方主跌浪、4w失守后的底）
33300（3w上方的强支撑）
28750-24850（本轮小牛周期的起涨点，时间点：2023.9月底）
19850（补仓参考）
ps：因为本轮牛市中btc的高点和底部均有抬高，因此下轮熊市周期的大底大概率在28750-24850、19850这两档。
78200（跌破就不能再接）
75000-73300（短期底）
65000-63600（短期底）
50000-48800（山腰）
38200（5w下方主跌浪、4w失守后的底）
33300（3w上方的强支撑）
28750-24850（本轮小牛周期的起涨点，时间点：2023.9月底）
19850（补仓参考）
ps：因为本轮牛市中btc的高点和底部均有抬高，因此下轮熊市周期的大底大概率在28750-24850、19850这两档。
Ver original
Trump includes btc, eth, sol, xrp, ada in his crypto strategic reserves. These five coins are the next big players. Strategic reserves essentially mean that at the national level, there is a need to buy at low prices, the lower the cost, the better, which opens the curtain for a bear market. xrp and ada are veteran altcoins, and there's also ltc (spicy strips), all of which are stable altcoins with much lower chances of dropping to nearly zero during a bear market compared to other altcoins, and their daily declines are not as exaggerated as those of other altcoins.
Regardless of whether you think the bull market has not ended or believe we have entered a bear market, we must treat the current phase as a bear market. If you are trading spot in the short to medium term, every time there is a 'short-term bottom,' you can take the opportunity to buy for a rebound, but every major rebound requires exiting. If you still want to hold on with the mindset of returning to last year's high, then you can easily get trapped in the short to medium term.
If, like me, you only pursue the very bottom of the bear market to buy the ultimate low (such as btc bottom 27850-24850, ada bottom 0.25, eth 1088-960, sol bottom 40-22, ltc bottom 48-38). I will definitely not buy bitcoin at the high prices of 70-40k. Therefore, there is no need to engage this year and next year; I will step back for a year and a half to prepare for the ultimate low. However, I will still insist on contracts this year and next; I will short from over 90k all the way down to below 30k, and then prepare to bottom-fish in spot.
This process is long.
Regardless of whether you think the bull market has not ended or believe we have entered a bear market, we must treat the current phase as a bear market. If you are trading spot in the short to medium term, every time there is a 'short-term bottom,' you can take the opportunity to buy for a rebound, but every major rebound requires exiting. If you still want to hold on with the mindset of returning to last year's high, then you can easily get trapped in the short to medium term.
If, like me, you only pursue the very bottom of the bear market to buy the ultimate low (such as btc bottom 27850-24850, ada bottom 0.25, eth 1088-960, sol bottom 40-22, ltc bottom 48-38). I will definitely not buy bitcoin at the high prices of 70-40k. Therefore, there is no need to engage this year and next year; I will step back for a year and a half to prepare for the ultimate low. However, I will still insist on contracts this year and next; I will short from over 90k all the way down to below 30k, and then prepare to bottom-fish in spot.
This process is long.
Traduzir
$ETH eth短线上的做空点和抄底点：
2450-2001 = 449
2001+171 = 2,172（低多止盈点、短空点1）
2001+224 = 2,225（短空点2）
2001+277 = 2,278（短空点3）
2278以上属于短线补空范围，遇到信息面往上脉冲时第一时间平仓。
因为2112/2088是2000上方最后一道支撑，这里已经多次遭受空头的冲击，今天下杀到了2000整数附近，已对关口的支撑产生严重危险，因此2000以下的支撑点需要纳入到抄底范围来。首次跌破2000一般会强势收上来，2300附近将成为强压力。二次下探到2000后的1860及以下再反弹，2112则成为突破2000后的一个强阻力点。
这些后面一一发生再具体看。
2000-1500之间的支撑点：1976（弱）、1930（弱）、1880、1820、1770、1736、1656、1620、1592、1550。
未来现货终极抄底锁定1520-1380-1088三步。
2450-2001 = 449
2001+171 = 2,172（低多止盈点、短空点1）
2001+224 = 2,225（短空点2）
2001+277 = 2,278（短空点3）
2278以上属于短线补空范围，遇到信息面往上脉冲时第一时间平仓。
因为2112/2088是2000上方最后一道支撑，这里已经多次遭受空头的冲击，今天下杀到了2000整数附近，已对关口的支撑产生严重危险，因此2000以下的支撑点需要纳入到抄底范围来。首次跌破2000一般会强势收上来，2300附近将成为强压力。二次下探到2000后的1860及以下再反弹，2112则成为突破2000后的一个强阻力点。
这些后面一一发生再具体看。
2000-1500之间的支撑点：1976（弱）、1930（弱）、1880、1820、1770、1736、1656、1620、1592、1550。
未来现货终极抄底锁定1520-1380-1088三步。
Traduzir
用公式来计算btc的做空点，抄底点和触底反弹可能的最高点（也是空单介入点）：
94971-82420 = 12,551
82420+4794 = 87,214（短空点位1）
82420+6275 = 88,695（短空点位2）
82420+7756 = 90,176（短空点位3）
87200以下不必再去追空，不具成本优势。等新低后先抄底，触底反弹到以上点位再去分批空。为了避免被信息面引起的暴力拉盘扎到，做空点1和做空点2仓位偏小。
如果今天反弹的最高点是84415，81300-80950是8w关口最后的屏障，如失守后，支撑又下移到了78200附近。因为btc的小波段不像sol那样具有很明确的规律，谁也无法精准锁定在一个狭小的点位上。新的抄底范围早上分享过，不赘述，耐心等。
如果新低是73600（周线boll下轨线上），触底反弹的点位：
94971-73600 = 21,371
73600+8163 = 81,763（低多止盈点1、抄底现货卖出点1）
73600+10685 = 84,285（低多止盈点2、抄底现货卖出点2）
73600+13207 = 86,807（低多止盈点3、现货未仓清仓点、空单介入点）
如果到不了73600，再更新。但也相差不太大。
所以后面需要思考的是，后市如果再上不去90000关口怎么办？你还会自信的认为牛市还在否？
94971-82420 = 12,551
82420+4794 = 87,214（短空点位1）
82420+6275 = 88,695（短空点位2）
82420+7756 = 90,176（短空点位3）
87200以下不必再去追空，不具成本优势。等新低后先抄底，触底反弹到以上点位再去分批空。为了避免被信息面引起的暴力拉盘扎到，做空点1和做空点2仓位偏小。
如果今天反弹的最高点是84415，81300-80950是8w关口最后的屏障，如失守后，支撑又下移到了78200附近。因为btc的小波段不像sol那样具有很明确的规律，谁也无法精准锁定在一个狭小的点位上。新的抄底范围早上分享过，不赘述，耐心等。
如果新低是73600（周线boll下轨线上），触底反弹的点位：
94971-73600 = 21,371
73600+8163 = 81,763（低多止盈点1、抄底现货卖出点1）
73600+10685 = 84,285（低多止盈点2、抄底现货卖出点2）
73600+13207 = 86,807（低多止盈点3、现货未仓清仓点、空单介入点）
如果到不了73600，再更新。但也相差不太大。
所以后面需要思考的是，后市如果再上不去90000关口怎么办？你还会自信的认为牛市还在否？
Traduzir
这种宽幅震荡，合约小波段是很难做的。如果是牛市，一天跌幅这么大，第二天是会强力反弹的，而现在反弹微弱，说明市场的热情一下就被扑灭。前晚给了你一颗糖，昨晚马上用狼牙棒打了你一顿。
今天短线上强压力又回到了147-151。157无法站稳，200则不可能到达。
今天短线上强压力又回到了147-151。157无法站稳，200则不可能到达。
Ver original
New lows will be born this week, prepare in advance for spot trading. I will discuss the range for bottom fishing. This 'bottom fishing' should still clear positions during the next big rebound, don’t have too large a perspective.
btc: Today's support is around 82400, and there is only this one support level left before dropping below 80000 again. A pin in the information front could break it.
New low locked: 74666-73300 (the support points below 78200, 77300, 76850, 75750 can also be tested with small positions).
eth: Today's support is 2000, there are no more support points, the next step is to prepare for a break.
New low locked: 1928, 1866.
sol: Today's support is 132, only a step away from last week's 'short-term bottom' - 125.5 (last week I accurately captured this point at 125.5).
New low locked: 122, 114. The highest point of today's rebound determines the next new low.
btc: Today's support is around 82400, and there is only this one support level left before dropping below 80000 again. A pin in the information front could break it.
New low locked: 74666-73300 (the support points below 78200, 77300, 76850, 75750 can also be tested with small positions).
eth: Today's support is 2000, there are no more support points, the next step is to prepare for a break.
New low locked: 1928, 1866.
sol: Today's support is 132, only a step away from last week's 'short-term bottom' - 125.5 (last week I accurately captured this point at 125.5).
New low locked: 122, 114. The highest point of today's rebound determines the next new low.
Traduzir
eth今天精准插针2000，当btc再次跌穿83000进入78200以下、就要防范eth跌穿2000关口，这里并非铜墙铁壁，说不可能跌破的，太乐观。5月前跌到1600-1480给你看看。
宽幅震荡，波动非常大，拉和跌受信息面主导切换太快，技术面在信息面面前容易失效，因此短线合约风险大，一般人hold不住，一夜之间醒来你就可能感觉天又塌了，每次下探新低暴力拉盘时你又会感觉“牛回了”，这样快速切换会让你的心态容易崩塌，因此不做防守很容易挂。在趋势反转前（站稳98000前），只做暴拉后的空单介入会更安全，短多要设原地止损。
稳健者现阶段可以改为现货抄底，今晚到周五晚波动都会很大，今天先买入1成仓，明天到周四如果跌穿83000后，再买入1成仓，跌破78000后，再抄底1成仓。
宽幅震荡，波动非常大，拉和跌受信息面主导切换太快，技术面在信息面面前容易失效，因此短线合约风险大，一般人hold不住，一夜之间醒来你就可能感觉天又塌了，每次下探新低暴力拉盘时你又会感觉“牛回了”，这样快速切换会让你的心态容易崩塌，因此不做防守很容易挂。在趋势反转前（站稳98000前），只做暴拉后的空单介入会更安全，短多要设原地止损。
稳健者现阶段可以改为现货抄底，今晚到周五晚波动都会很大，今天先买入1成仓，明天到周四如果跌穿83000后，再买入1成仓，跌破78000后，再抄底1成仓。
Traduzir
前天晚上ada拉了60%，24小时内打回原形，今天你还敢不敢抄底？（顺带提及下昨天为什么我说美国将某些币纳入国家战略储备是炒作的噱头，因为这是一个长期的吹牛B工程，号称百万亿级别的美金储备加密货币，国家不傻，必然是价格越低越好，绝不可能去买9w、8w、7w、6w、5w这么高价的比特币，它一定会分批逢低买入，这就意味着从今年到明年，价格可能开启层层叠叠往下走的熊市周期。当然，从指标上看，btc目前还没有真正意义上进入熊市周期，我的判定依据是如果周线macd跌下零轴，即价格跌穿73000后即可确认。
我的建议是周四前分批抄底，周五晚有非农、还有一个什么白宫加密峰会，这两个信息面一个是客观的空、一个是人为制造的多，可能一下一上波动很大，博个反弹吧。
我的建议是周四前分批抄底，周五晚有非农、还有一个什么白宫加密峰会，这两个信息面一个是客观的空、一个是人为制造的多，可能一下一上波动很大，博个反弹吧。
Traduzir
现在处于周线级别调整中的5日线调整周期内，触零后将加速下跌。今天现价（83000）之下，还有近1w点跌幅。只是探新低来得太快了！ 一上一下发生得太快了，说杀猪盘一点不为过。
Ver original
Overnight it reverted to its original form. Is this what you call a bull market with a sudden surge? It’s not an exaggeration to describe it as a ‘kill pig’ scheme. This is exactly what I said last night, the funds that violently surged the night before have been withdrawn completely without a trace, from 85k to a surge of 10k points, and then within a day, another 10k points were smashed back to 85k. The operator is ruthless and quick.
Prepare for new lows, as I mentioned last week, the adjustments on the 5-day and weekly levels are still ahead, which means there will be at least 1-2 more accelerations in the downward trend. If BTC enters the range of 74600-73000, that will be the next opportunity to bottom out.
Prepare for new lows, as I mentioned last week, the adjustments on the 5-day and weekly levels are still ahead, which means there will be at least 1-2 more accelerations in the downward trend. If BTC enters the range of 74600-73000, that will be the next opportunity to bottom out.
Ver original
一反弹，有人就喊牛回了。回个鸡儿。离趋势反转还有较大距离。
什么叫看多做多的多头趋势？今天的最高点，回踩0.286-0.382就是明天的最低点、每天都是新高，一周至少有3天是延续上涨行情，这才是牛市行情！
如果从110000回调下来到78200，这个深蹲不能换取拉盘到117000，而只是最高到94850-98000，那么后市再在利空刺激下就会下探78200以下的新低。
什么叫看多做多的多头趋势？今天的最高点，回踩0.286-0.382就是明天的最低点、每天都是新高，一周至少有3天是延续上涨行情，这才是牛市行情！
如果从110000回调下来到78200，这个深蹲不能换取拉盘到117000，而只是最高到94850-98000，那么后市再在利空刺激下就会下探78200以下的新低。
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