I have re-entered the long position on the pancake. Someone asked me: Why have I been going long recently, can't I go short with the trend? This is like when you asked me why I was willing to short BTC when it was at 110,000 last year looking for 80,000.
My judgment of the long-term trend for BTC and ETH has had a success rate of over 80% in the past. Although this long position was stopped out at 78,000, I believe it was more influenced by negative news, representing a temporary release of market sentiment. From a technical perspective, I still remain bullish on the daily chart, at least until it breaks below 70,000.
The next target range remains 89,100 to 91,100. If it breaks and holds above, I'm looking at the previous high of 108,000, and the furthest target is still 130,000. The thought process hasn't changed, just adjusted the rhythm. The above is just my personal opinion, for reference.
I hope it falls directly, and then I can buy the dip. If it continues to move sideways, the hourly chart will form a bottom, and it probably won't fall easily.
Have we all bottomed out? Should we continue to short 😂 and make another short-term move?
Yesterday, near the first target of 83.5, I reduced part of my position and increased my long-term spot on LTC, with a long-term target still at 138 and a stop-loss at 69. For this short-term LTC rebound, it will only be considered a true trend reversal if it breaks 89.5. So at this position, short-term, we can consider continuing to add to short positions, with the stop-loss moved down to 89.5, and the target directly at the second target of 74.5. Of course, this trade is still quite aggressive; if it breaks, just hold the spot, and you can refer to the chart below for specifics.
We are one step closer to the ideal set 23 years ago
Behind every progress, there is the feeling of helplessness that comes from repeatedly reminding others in the group, yet still seeing some chase high and face liquidation. Initially, I just wanted to recover my losses, then I wanted more people to recover together, and finally, I understood that the dream is mine, and so is the path
Although I know this is difficult, as I cannot guarantee accurate predictions every time, I know that by striving to improve the win rate and compounding over the long term, it will definitely be achieved! Let's work hard together!
Perfeitamente aproveitando toda uma grande tendência, tudo é público e transparente, cada passo é registrado, todos são bem-vindos para revisar, nunca fazemos comentários tardios e não mantemos mistérios. Agradecemos aos amigos que sempre nos apoiaram e confiaram, e também damos as boas-vindas aos novos amigos para trocar experiências e crescer juntos.
O verdadeiro topo, como a calmaria antes da maré recuar - quando você perceber, o preço já virou silenciosamente. Todos acham que o auge está por vir, mas não percebem que o momento mais bonito muitas vezes é o sinal de saída. No final, restam apenas lucros que não podem ser retidos e a incapacidade de realizar lucros.
Atualmente, pode ser apenas uma correção de pequeno grau, mas não se esqueça, uma queda de grande grau muitas vezes se desenvolve passo a passo a partir de ressonâncias de pequeno grau.
I believe everyone made profits from yesterday's BTC short 😎. A few days ago, I also bought some LTC spot, but yesterday we shorted BTC around 110,000, which may indicate signs of a weakening short-term trend. So here we can also try to catch a rebound for LTC. Some friends asked me how I analyze trends so accurately and requested some teaching. In fact, I use very few technical indicators; mainly just naked candlesticks. The core is still the profit and loss ratio. Before opening a position, I always set stop-loss and take-profit levels, only taking trades with high cost-effectiveness, and I strictly execute this. The profit and loss ratio for this LTC trade is about 1:3 or higher, which is very cost-effective. Without further ado, let's get to the point:
Before discussing BTC, let's briefly review yesterday's ETH long position strategy. The target we set was 2730, which is the upper edge of the consolidation range over the past month. Today, ETH successfully broke through and reached the target, with profits nearing $200. It has just completed a pullback, and if it can hold above 2730, the probability of continuing to challenge 3040 is quite high. Those interested in ETH can refer to this point.
Due to ETH's strong performance, this BTC short position carries certain risks, so please pay attention to position management when trading.
Back to today's focus - BTC short position. As shown in the chart below, BTC is still within a four-hour consolidation range and is now approaching the upper edge of this range. My personal view is that unless it breaks 113000, it is highly likely there will be a pullback, targeting around 106900. The risk-reward ratio for this trade is roughly above 1:1.2.
Specific levels are as follows: Aggressive short: 109700 (market entry) Conservative short: 110600 (limit order entry) Stop loss position: 112500 Target one: 106900 Target two: 103100
As usual, friends who want to follow, remember to give a thumbs up. If the market changes, I will promptly update on taking profits/exit. This is my personal thought, for reference only, not investment advice. The entire trading process is transparent and recorded on my profile, welcome to supervise. Wishing everyone good luck, let's go together!
Um amigo me perguntou: se o Bitcoin não cair abaixo de 100 mil, ainda posso comprar?
Vou compartilhar minha opinião pessoal: Atualmente, o Bitcoin está novamente próximo de 110 mil. Embora o mercado possa ter espaço para subir, eu sempre olho para a relação risco-retorno ao fazer minhas operações. Desde 80 mil, mantive até agora, e o lucro já é bastante considerável.
Mas comprar novamente próximo de 110 mil não tem uma boa relação custo-benefício. Você pode se referir à imagem abaixo; se realmente houver uma oscilação ascendente em torno de 80 mil a 110 mil, então a posição atual está na parte superior, não apenas a relação risco-retorno é ruim, mas o processo de manter a posição também pode ser bastante agonizante. Claro, também não descarto a possibilidade de que este nível se torne uma nova área de topo de mercado, e essa é a razão pela qual eu vendi todas as minhas posições alavancadas perto de 110 mil.
Portanto, pessoalmente, eu não abriria uma posição de compra neste nível. Se você realmente quiser comprar, eu prefiro direcionar meu olhar para o Ethereum ou Litecoin, pois as formações técnicas desses dois estão relativamente saudáveis, e a posição atual também oferece uma melhor relação custo-benefício, tornando as oportunidades mais dignas de atenção.
Esta é a minha linha de pensamento e lógica operacional. Para tendências de médio a longo prazo, minha taxa de sucesso geralmente se mantém acima de 80%. Muitas estratégias também são totalmente transparentes, amigos antigos sabem disso. Se você tiver alguma dúvida, fique à vontade para deixar um comentário e vamos conversar!