Under the dual pressure of strong U.S. economic data and a weak bond market, expectations for the Fed to cut rates this year are facing unprecedented challenges. Last night, the U.S. stock market was closed in memory of Carter, but the 24-hour running cryptocurrency market could not escape the pressure. As investors anxiously await Friday's employment data, Bitcoin's price has plummeted to a new low in over a month.
On the eve of the release of the non-farm employment report for December, Bitcoin faced selling pressure again today (10) in the early morning, plunging over $2,000 at one point but later the decline eased, holding above $91,000, with a minimum drop to $91,250. The current price has rebounded to above the $94,000 level.
This wave of selling undoubtedly casts a shadow over the cryptocurrency market, which only experienced a strong surge at the end of last year. Moreover, it is normal for the market to experience both rises and falls; the key is to analyze calmly and not panic when there is a drop. We must be rational! Yesterday, when it was said that the Americans would sell BTC from the Silk Road, the market immediately panicked, and short-term panic sentiment surged. Additionally, after the previous market surge, it is now in a repair phase, and before the wise king takes office, some funds have withdrawn to avoid risks.
But keep in mind that whether it's BlackRock or MicroStrategy, their continuous buying without considering costs is because from the perspective of the top players, the game has just begun. Some consensus within certain interest groups is beyond our understanding, but we only need to know from their actions that the game has just started. As for what to do next? Will BTC continue to fall? What to do if contracts are stuck? Let's analyze it together.
How much deeper will Bitcoin fall?
Currently, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL have all retraced to previous price lows, and the market seems to gradually accept the reality that these support levels may be breached. This is usually a critical moment when panic sentiment begins to spread.
But as the old saying goes, this does not mean the market is entirely bearish! The current market conditions are quite exhausting, but remember that good things are on the way! The pullback is just a temporary breather, and Trump's inauguration on January 20 will bring optimistic sentiment to the market. This major positive factor is here, and in the long run, the market is expected to start a new wave of upward momentum again.
The viewpoint remains the same as yesterday: I still believe the bottom support level of the range is around $92,000. Currently, Bitcoin's price has not broken this range, although at one point it fell to $91,200. However, the price has now rebounded, indicating it was a false breakdown, and the current support level remains effective.
Of course, being a bit more cautious, I still hope to wait for a market rebound. Just like before, when the price began to rebound and the bulls started to fight back, the bears could not push down to new lows, and then the bulls continually broke through new highs. In such a scenario, there will be opportunities to enter the market.
Should we reduce our positions now? Currently, we have not yet waited for the non-farm data release, and we can observe whether a structural bullish trend can emerge. If a structural bullish trend can be established, then there is no need to wait for the evening data to reduce positions. Specifically, we can pay attention to the $97,000 bull-bear boundary. It would be better to enter this area, but when approaching this area, we should reduce positions in batches. Once a bullish structure emerges, it's essential to set a stop-loss when trading contracts. Even if a bullish structure is established, always carry a stop-loss because the market can change dramatically at any moment.
Future Market Outlook
The decline in expectations for Fed rate cuts and the strengthening of the dollar continue to put pressure on cryptocurrencies and traditional markets. Despite Bitcoin having strong on-chain support, its movement is increasingly influenced by broader market trends, indicating potential short-term risks ahead.
Global liquidity fluctuations also put pressure on Bitcoin. Historical data shows that liquidity changes usually lead Bitcoin price movements by about 13 weeks. With the strengthening of the dollar following Trump's re-election, global liquidity measured in dollars is beginning to tighten, suggesting that Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase in the near term.
However, this consolidation is expected to be a temporary phenomenon. Overall, risk assets (especially Bitcoin) still show positive long-term potential. Nevertheless, in a weaker liquidity environment, it is essential to maintain a higher level of caution.
In summary, the Silk Road selling coins, Trump's remarks, and rate cut expectations are all just bumps on the way to $130k and $150k. Invest with a long-term mindset; no one can cut you off! Firmly believe this: Everything that happens must benefit me. That's how we have gotten through these years. Don't panic!
Finally, I want to say: Bitcoin must break through $94,300 and stabilize to create a significant rebound structure. Tonight's non-farm employment data and the fluctuations in USDT and the 10-year Treasury yield may bring drastic changes. The current market recovery suggests that everyone could reduce positions in batches and set take-profit and stop-loss orders, as the evening is unpredictable. If a significant reversal occurs tonight like last time, quickly dropping and then spiking back up, we will follow up.