Daily sharing

Last night, BTC did not break below 97,000, reaching a low near 97,276 before it couldn't go lower, and then began a rebound, peaking at 99,892. The trend is still relatively strong. From the current structure, the short-term trend has become more complex and variable.

It is possible that a new 4h level rise is currently underway if it breaks 100,000 again. However, this 4h level rise is very likely to not break 108,000, instead transitioning to oscillation around the 4h level center, and then undergoing a segment away from the 4h center to conclude the daily level rise.

If this is the case, the market moving through a 4h retracement and then another 4h level rise to 120,000 will be much more complicated, and the time period for the daily rise to end will be significantly delayed.

However, there is currently no definite unique structure, and there are other changes in the subsequent trends. It can be roughly determined that the overall daily level rise has not ended, with a general direction of guidance, overall trading is still planned. But in the short term, it is not very clear now and needs to continue to observe the short-term trend.

BTC

Due to rapid market changes in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest changes in the market, and this is just for reference.

1H：

The current market structure has certain changes. The picture above shows a possible current trend. The left side of the picture shows a yellow arrow indicating three 1h level structures: down, up, down, so from 108353 to 91530 can be a 4h level retracement. Currently running the middle part of the red arrow, the first wave of the 1h level rebound and the second wave of the 1h level retracement have already emerged. If it breaks 100,000 again, then the third wave of the 1h level rebound will be established. In this case, the part of the red arrow can be considered as undergoing a new 4h level rebound.

In other words, if it breaks 100,000 again, we should deny the view that the 4h level retracement of BTC has not ended, but rather believe that it is currently undergoing a new 4h level rebound. This rebound focuses on around 102,000 or 105,000. The expectation is still that it will not break 108,000, and then it will undergo a 4h level retracement, as shown by the green arrow on the right side of the picture above.

If it operates according to the structure shown in the picture above, then BTC is overall constructing a 4h level center, and the final target for the daily line is still around 102,000, but the process in between has become more complex.

Of course, if BTC cannot break 100,000, then the previous view that the 4h level retracement has not ended and will again test 90,000 remains unchanged.

15M：

15-minute level: Yesterday, it actually completed three 15-minute level structures: down, up, down, so it has already completed a 1h level retracement, but this 1h retracement was relatively shallow and did not break below 97,000. Today, it should normally be running the third wave of the 1h level rebound in the 4h level rebound, and this rebound still lacks a 15-minute level rebound to go above 100,000. Let's first see if the third wave of the 15-minute level rebound can be smoothly executed.

Currently, we should first focus on around 102,000 above, and after breaking through, focus on around 105,000.

ETH

For ETH, the 15-minute level structure here mainly focuses on the situation at key positions. If it retraces and breaks below 3620, then ETH will need to undergo a 1h level retracement because ETH did not successfully execute a 1h retracement yesterday, as shown by the blue arrow in the picture above. If the 15-minute level retracement here does not break below 3620, then we need to consider the possibility of continuing to extend upwards, as indicated by the red arrow, with a focus on 3720 above.

Trend direction

Weekly level: Direction is upward, currently undergoing a new weekly level rise, with an overall target looking above 150,000.

Daily level: Direction is upward, the daily level rise is expected to reach 120,000, and if it breaks through, then look at 150,000.

4-hour level: Direction is either downward or upward. If BTC breaks 100,000 again, it is considered to be undergoing a 4h level rebound. Conversely, the view of the 4h retracement remains unchanged.

1-hour level: Direction is upward, normally it is the third wave of a 1h level rebound in a 4h level rebound. First, we need to see if it breaks 100,000; if it does, then we will focus on 102,000 above.

15-minute level: Direction is upward, pay attention to the upward strength here.