O mercado no fim de semana esteve numa faixa por dois dias. Do ponto de vista dos dados, a liquidez no fim de semana está lamentavelmente baixa e a taxa de rotatividade também está no nível do mercado baixista. Nos Estados Unidos, é difícil aumentar o volume de negócios nos finais de semana, então nossas oportunidades reais tendem a acontecer durante a jornada de trabalho. Isto mostra que a maioria dos investidores de retalho não tem vontade de negociar, o que também significa que a maioria das pessoas está optimista quanto à tendência dos preços após a posse de Trump. Actualmente, a força motriz por detrás da tendência do mercado ainda precisa da bênção das emoções. A maior fonte desta emoção é a transferência de poder de Trump. Trump será empossado como Presidente dos Estados Unidos em 20 de Janeiro, daqui a 14 dias. O mercado espera que Trump cumpra as suas promessas após tomar posse, por isso continuo a manter a minha visão anterior e estou relativamente optimista em relação ao mercado no primeiro trimestre deste ano. Se Trump começar a cumprir suas promessas assim que tomar posse, os preços do Bitcoin e do Ethereum poderão subir novamente. Vale ressaltar que Michael Saylor (CEO da MicroStrategy) lançou o Bitcoin Tracker pela nona semana consecutiva. Isso pode exigir outro movimento para comprar Bitcoin.
In terms of macro data, we need to pay attention to the ADP employment change at 21:15 this Wednesday, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes at 3:00 a.m. Thursday, and finally the non-farm payroll data at 21:30 Friday evening. Tonight's U.S. stock market impact will be more significant than usual, as the U.S. Congress will confirm Trump's victory in the election tonight. Therefore, by tomorrow at the latest, we will definitely receive favorable news regarding Trump’s ascension, while the cryptocurrency market will also enter an acceleration phase in terms of sentiment. After all, Trump stated in December that he hoped Bitcoin could hit 150,000 during his term; even if we discount that, is it unreasonable to aim for 120,000 before January 20? Which projects will benefit the most after the Trump market opens? First and foremost, it will certainly be the Presidential Selection, which includes BTC, ETH, AAVE, LINK, ENA, and ONDO. Among these, ETH has the largest holding in Trump’s new project WLFI. It is expected that Ethereum will lead the upward trend during a certain period tonight, while the other four projects will see more significant increases due to their market caps compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Looking at Ethereum, there is a minor resistance level around ETH 3675, which has been tested several times and is likely to break through soon. The main observation remains whether it can break through 3820 with strong volume.
Currently, the rise of Ethereum and altcoins still looks healthy, although it has been a bit slow.
The overall market share of Bitcoin is weakening. There has been a minor rebound in the last couple of days, and when Bitcoin's BTCD accelerates its decline, it will be the time for Ethereum and altcoins to accelerate their rise.
MSTR's K-line shows that a wave of adjustment has been completed. There was a significant rebound last Friday, and tonight it is highly likely to continue its upward trend, leading to a surge in crypto.
Whether it's Ethereum or altcoins, the weekend has been lukewarm, with two consecutive days of flat performance. It needs a volume surge to continue the upward momentum. I estimate that if the ETF data comes out with inflows tomorrow, it will happen very quickly.
What data can influence whether the altcoin market cycle can break new highs?
As for whether altcoins can reach new highs, insufficient liquidity is an excuse for the decline, but not the real reason for the drop. The true reason for the decline is 'the expectation of a drop', while the reason for the rise is 'the expectation of a rise'. In 2021, the market cap of USDT was only half of what it is now, yet it still supported the altcoin bull market. The current round is not surprising; as long as there is 'expectation', although altcoins may not rise 100 times, increasing by 50%-100% over the high point of 2021 is certainly feasible.
There are also factors related to Trump. The Trump factor is the main reason for the surge in BTC since November, so the topic of Trump is a very broad one, making it difficult to clearly explain its advantages and disadvantages in just a few words. Once the general direction is confirmed, it may be worthwhile to focus on Trump-related coins and altcoins that he holds.
At this moment, we are at the first rebound after about two weeks of consolidation. Some people see an opportunity to escape, while others see the beginning of the altcoin season. Currently, aside from market data, it will greatly depend on the FOMC meeting on January 28-29 and the various macro data released during the rest of January.
This data will lead the market to form expectations for the first rate cuts in January/March/May. If the data is better (here 'better' means favorable to us), then the probability of a rate cut in March increases, and the expected number of rate cuts for the year rises. (Currently, a rate cut in January still appears to be a low-probability event, so the main focus remains on March vs. May.)
At the same time, there will be a dot plot in March — which means March will provide the expected number of rate cuts for the entire year. If the data in January is favorable and January offers very dovish statements, then the expectation for rate cuts in March will increase, and the bull market is likely to continue.
