Based on AICoin chart data, analyze the trend of Bitcoin on January 6. Recently, the market has experienced a strong rebound, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears, and the price trend has entered a critical area. From both long-term and short-term candlestick pattern analysis, the market overall still maintains a fluctuating upward trend, but there are signs of a pullback in the short term. The current situation poses challenges for both bulls and bears.
Long-term trend analysis
Trend review: Since December 26, after the price formed a high point at 99963.70, there has been a significant downward trend, reaching a low of 91530.45. Subsequently, the market has been fluctuating at a low position and gradually rising, forming a preliminary V-shaped reversal pattern, rebounding to the current level of around 98090.45.
Key pattern:
Head and shoulders bottom prototype: From December 26 to January 3, the price trend may form a head and shoulders bottom prototype, with 91530.45 as the bottom.
Fluctuation consolidation: The current price is in a stage of fluctuation consolidation, with the high point yet to break through the previous high of 99963.70.
Support and resistance:
Long-term support level: 91530.45, as the recent low point, is an important long-term support level.
Long-term resistance level: 99963.70 is the previous high, which needs to be closely monitored for the possibility of a breakout.
Short-term trend analysis
Trend review: The chart shows that the price has exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend from early January to now, with the highest point reaching 98976.91. The current price has pulled back to around 98069.80, indicating that bulls are encountering some resistance near the previous high.
Key pattern:
Ascending triangle breakout: The previous trend shows that the price formed an ascending triangle pattern, briefly peaking at 98976.91 after the breakout.
Pullback confirmation: The current price is undergoing a pullback after the breakout. Pay attention to whether it can hold above 97500.
Support and resistance:
Short-term support level: The range between 97500 and 98000 is currently an important support area. If it stabilizes, there is a higher probability of further upward movement in the future.
Short-term resistance level: 98976.91 is the recent high. If this level is broken, it is expected to continue challenging the significant thresholds of 99500 and even 100000.
Technical indicator analysis:
MACD: The MACD histogram is gradually lengthening, and the DIF line crosses above the DEA line, indicating that bullish strength is increasing in the short term.
RSI: The RSI value is around 60, not yet in the overbought or oversold zone, but close to the overbought area, so attention is needed to see if there will be a pullback.
EMA: The current price is above EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120, with EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA120, indicating that short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages are all in a bullish arrangement, showing a positive trend.
Long-term and short-term combined analysis
Long-term trend: The long-term trend is still within a channel of fluctuating upward, but the upward momentum is gradually weakening. The important long-term support level is at 91530.45, and the current price is still above this support, showing that the overall market remains bullish.
Short-term trend: In the short term, the price has encountered resistance at the significant resistance level of 98976.91 after a recent rebound, along with signs of a pullback confirmation. Currently seeking support in the 97500-98000 range is a critical key for whether the bulls can continue.
Common signals:
Fluctuation range: Both long-term and short-term analysis show that the market exhibits strong fluctuation characteristics. The long-term range is 91500-100000, while the short-term range is 97500-98976.
Momentum change: The pullback after the short-term rebound is relatively healthy. If the support holds, the market may continue to challenge the long-term resistance area of 99500-100000.
Market prediction
Upward scenario (high probability, 60%):
Logic: The long-term bullish trend remains unbroken, and if the price stabilizes at the support level in the short term with increased volume, it may break upward again.
Target level: Short-term target: After breaking 98976.91, reach the psychological level of 99500, or even challenge 100000. Long-term target: After breaking, the upward space opens, likely challenging 102000.
Fluctuation scenario (medium probability, 30%):
Logic: If the short-term rebound momentum is insufficient, the market may fluctuate and consolidate within the range of 97500-98976, waiting for direction selection.
Target level: Upper limit: 98976-99500. Lower limit: 96500-97500.
Downward scenario (low probability, 10%):
Logic: If the price breaks below the 97500 support, bullish confidence may be undermined, triggering more sell orders.
Target level: Short-term support: 96500. Long-term support: 94500-91500.
Operational suggestions
Conservative investors: Wait for the price to break above 98976.91, confirm the short-term upward trend, and cautiously try long positions with light positions, targeting 99500-100000. Set stop-loss at 97500 to avoid pullback risks.
Aggressive investors: Currently trying to establish long positions in the 97500-98000 range, waiting for a short-term rebound, targeting 98976.91. If it breaks below 97500, quickly stop-loss and observe the performance of support at 96500.
Risk control: The market is still in a fluctuating pattern, and it is crucial to avoid chasing after prices. Carefully observe the volume-price relationship. If volume decreases during a pullback, it indicates strong support; conversely, proceed with caution.
Comprehensive summary
The market is currently in a short-term pullback phase within a long-term fluctuating upward trend. The key support at 97500 and the resistance level at 98976.91 are crucial for the direction of the future market. It is recommended that investors adopt flexible strategies, patiently wait for clearer direction, and strictly manage risk.
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AICoin official website: www.aicoin.com
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