After a period of sluggishness, Bitcoin's performance has attracted market attention, while altcoins are in a state of continuous adjustment, leaving many confused. There are concerns about whether Bitcoin will fall below 90,000 USD and whether altcoins will set new lows.
However, this sentiment actually lacks sufficient practical basis; it is more of an emotional reaction, known as 'emotional prediction.' This anxiety is often caused by an over-interpretation of market trends, especially among novice investors, who can easily fall into this 'newbie anxiety'.
Such investors often get influenced by the patterns of the previous market cycle, just like the market trends from April to September 2024 left a deep impression on them. However, entering 2025, the market environment has already changed, and if investors still rely on old thinking to judge the market, they are likely to miss new investment opportunities.
In the past two days, secondary altcoins have experienced significant capital outflow due to on-chain AI, with almost no obvious market trends. This situation may continue until February.
Yesterday, various gold dog AI and AI framework projects like swarms showed strong FOMO sentiment. After launching moonshot yesterday, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of 100 million directly doubled the price and drove up the prices of ALCH and other coins.
After Binance launched perpetual contracts for AI16Z, Zerebro, and Griffain, the market immediately fell. It was mentioned earlier that many on-chain projects tend to decline during the first wave of market activity after launching. However, if it is spot trading, there is still room for operation!
Recently, the investment focus can be appropriately shifted to on-chain, as the recent profit effects on-chain have been quite good, and on-chain gold dogs continue to emerge.
(1) buzz
Dev jsonhedman, engaged in AI + DeFi, won first place in the Microsoft Generative AI Hackathon. In just a few hours, this project saw its market cap soar to 40 million. I remember when I first saw the code, its market cap was only 4 million. It really is the case that if you move a bit slowly, you miss this wave of market.
The current market has entered a phase of participating first and researching later. If many projects fail to intervene in a timely manner, then they can only consider the next one.
(2) sandy
Doing AI video rendering, it is also a big milk concept meme that came out yesterday, with the FDV peaking at 33 million, and now it is at 24 million.
(3) swarms, zailgo, mcs
The top investors in these three projects are the same person, and their price movements show a pattern of rising and falling together, competing with each other.
The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of swarms has soared to 200 million, up from around 20 million just a week ago, and it has steadily grown into a small-cap project. Zailgo is also a framework protocol that has gained attention on Twitter and has a certain level of abstraction; today, its price doubled, with the current FDV reaching 64 million.
As for why not go for spot trading?
The proportion of front-row chips in leading projects like AI16Z virtual is too high; once they go live on Binance, they are likely to conduct unloading operations. I estimate that these projects will find it difficult to push out spot trading in the short term and may tend to choose hotspot tech projects with FDVs between 100 million to 200 million, like swarms and alch.
The on-chain AI market will continue for a while, at least relatively stable in January. However, everyone must pay attention to risks and must not impulsively invest all their capital at once. It should be understood that the vast majority of on-chain AI projects will eventually trend toward zero value; do not harbor unrealistic beliefs about them. For leading AI projects, it is possible to hold them for the long term, but for others, do not expect too much. Funds obtained from AI projects can gradually be transferred back to the secondary market to buy valuable coins, which is the most reasonable strategy at present.
AI Agent old coins are retracing, while these four new coins are strongly rising today.
Although the vast majority of AI coins are retracing, note that it is not a halt; if there is no retracement, even I would panic. A decline is actually a good thing. I mentioned yesterday that the group sentiment was too FOMO, which inevitably creates a demand for a correction. Moreover, AI16Z went live on BN contracts yesterday, marking a temporary high point. Now that it is retracing, it is a good opportunity to accumulate chips.
Let’s use the DeFi boom as an analogy. In the beginning, the market mainly focused on the competition between Swap and lending protocols, both of which are the cornerstones of DeFi. Once leading projects like Uniswap and Aave stabilized, it was time for infrastructure projects like $LINK to shine. Subsequently, the market entered a phase of various siphoning attacks and complex layering plays, until later the track became saturated, leading to some so-called 'micro-innovations' or even 'pseudo-innovations.'
When some projects develop to the point where issues can only be understood through tools or repeated research, it actually indicates that this track is coming to an end. Throughout the process, as long as one keeps up with the hot bubbles and continuously increases the quantity of $Aave, $Uni, and $LINK, then theoretically, when the bull market approaches its end, one can capture the maximum returns.
Therefore, during this market correction, I have already taken profits on a significant portion of small and medium coins that performed well. Now I am gradually increasing my positions in several large coins with market caps exceeding 1B through dollar-cost averaging.
At the same time, exploring new projects and making small investments for high returns. Continue to pay attention to opportunities with market caps below 10M and above 100M, looking for potential next hotspots.
Finally, let’s see if BIO can be bought after its launch?
The total issuance of BIO is 3.32 billion, with a current valuation of 219 million USD. It is estimated that if the price is below 0.08 USD, it represents a relatively safe entry point.
In today's booming market where many new coins are emerging, many new coins will experience a significant rise within 1-2 days of launching, followed by a continuous sell-off. Before the new coins are launched, the situation is full of uncertainty. Therefore, it is recommended to enter the market cautiously and use the auction price and actual launch price as important reference points!
Experienced traders discuss trading insights:
Trading: 20% technique, 20% luck, 60% mindset.
1. Determine the trend, find entry points, and calculate the profit-loss ratio.
2. Frequent trading, unable to control hands, set goals for yourself; stop once you earn a fixed amount of U daily. Earning a living through trading is something that retail traders cannot achieve.
3. Not setting stop-losses and over-leveraging can lead to significant account drawdowns, making it difficult to manage with technical skills; this is a major taboo.
4. Open accounts profitably without setting a breakeven; looking down on small amounts means not being able to earn large amounts. Many mature traders also make this mistake.
5. Determine the trend and do not open counter-trend retracement orders when there are no trend-following positions, as it is important to maintain one direction!
6. The stop-loss and take-profit points provided by the teacher are the same for entering the market. Out of 10 trades, 7 are profitable and 3 are stop-losses, leading to some making money while others lose (liquidation).
7. Set limits based on losses, calculating how much to stop at each loss. For example: with an account of 10,000 U, if trading BTC, the acceptable stop-loss is 500 U. If the stop-loss is set at 1,000 points down, then 0.5 BTC is given; if the stop-loss is set at 500 points down, then 1 BTC is given.
8. Trading fear leads to inability to eat or sleep well. Continuously checking the phone while holding positions, even looking at the phone while crossing a traffic light, is a common issue for beginners. If you cannot overcome the psychological barrier, it is difficult to trade well.
9. Set stop-losses when opening positions, and every order should be within an acceptable range. Never get liquidated; any amount of U can be leveraged. It is not about who makes more money temporarily, but about who can survive in this ever-changing trading market.