Bull Market Top Signal Indicator List (Simplified) 1-03

Refuse noise and patiently wait; the bull market continues.

Today, I reviewed Goldman Sachs' latest forecast report for 2025 (14,000 words in total, summarized ten points from three articles for you).

Let’s highlight the key points: Federal Reserve interest rate cut timing, U.S. inflation, employment, and GDP.

1️⃣ GDP Growth Forecast: Goldman Sachs expects U.S. GDP growth to reach 2.4% in 2025, slightly above the consensus expectation of 2.0%, primarily driven by domestic private demand.

2️⃣ Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2025, with the final rate reaching 3.5 - 3.75%. Specifically: a 25 basis points cut in March, followed by two additional cuts in June and September.

3️⃣ Core PCE Inflation Rate: It is expected that by the end of 2025, the core PCE inflation rate will decrease from 2.8% to 2.1%. If tariff impacts are considered, it may rise to 2.4%.

4️⃣ Consumer Spending: Consumer spending growth is expected to remain robust, supported by a healthy labor market and wealth effects.

5️⃣ Labor Market: The labor market is expected to remain strong, with the unemployment rate slightly decreasing to 4% by the end of 2025.

6️⃣ Policy Changes: The policy changes from the Trump administration are expected to have a slight drag on growth in 2025, but will have a positive impact in 2026.

7️⃣ Immigration Policy: The net number of immigrants is expected to slow to about 750,000 per year, and tightened immigration policies will impact the labor market and economic growth.

8️⃣ Tariff Policy: The U.S. is expected to impose tariffs on Chinese imported goods and automobiles, but a comprehensive universal tariff is not anticipated.

9️⃣ Fiscal Deficit: Congress is not expected to significantly reduce the major deficit, and the 2017 tax cut policy is expected to be fully extended.

🔟 Economic and Financial Outlook: Detailed forecast data covering GDP, consumer spending, housing market, inflation, labor market, and government finance is provided.

I checked Goldman Sachs' historical forecast accuracy, which is 78% over the past four years; everyone can refer to this. Overall, it is more favorable for the cryptocurrency market > unfavorable.

#BTCUSDT