With the end of the Christmas holidays in Europe and the U.S., the short-term liquidity decline at the end of the year is starting to end, and liquidity is gradually improving. Buying in the cryptocurrency market is beginning to return. Although Bitcoin briefly fell to 93,000 USD during the Christmas holiday, it is now close to stabilizing overall, rising from 94k to 96k, showing a small increase.
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It is expected that Bitcoin may oscillate between 94K and 99K, which is a normal rebound. Everyone still needs to patiently wait for it to break through. If you bought Bitcoin at a low price before, when it reaches 99K, you might consider selling a portion and waiting for new buying opportunities. There are still quite a few bullish people in the market right now.
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Long-term outlook
The market is currently experiencing a short-term correction. At the end of the year, profits from high positions will be partially realized, and the market needs time to digest the Fed's possible hawkish shift early next year and the policy expectations of reducing interest rate cuts. In the short term, there is a lack of new driving forces, and the price may oscillate in the range of 90,000 to 105,000 USD.
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The current situation is driven by significant changes in macro expectations, leading to a turning point in the market. In fact, the same thing happened on December 18th last year, after the Fed meeting that night with the dot plot and speech, which directly pushed the first interest rate cut expectation to June. For altcoin speculators and Bitcoin holders, the situation is quite similar to the macro environment in March 2024 (when the first interest rate cut expectation was postponed to six months later). This is why altcoins dropped by 30% and Bitcoin fell by 10% after the Fed meeting on the 18th.
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Waiting for the consolidation phase to end, and after funds re-enter and negative news is gradually digested, the market will see a new round of increases in the first quarter of the first half of the year!
As for the second half of 2025, we'll see then. If the American economy doesn't collapse, it's highly likely that the fourth quarter market will peak. The current macro environment is different, and the peak price shouldn't reach as high as 200k or even 300k as the market suggests. It is expected that Bitcoin's price may break through the 120,000 USD mark during this period, and in an optimistic scenario, it may even reach 150,000 to 200,000 USD.
Looking at historical cycles, Bitcoin bull markets usually enter a correction period about 15 to 18 months after halving. This also means that the market is very likely to enter a correction phase after reaching new highs in mid-year or the second half of the year. The first half will still continue the rhythm of the existing bull market, but mid-year and after the third quarter, one must be alert to the risk of topping and correction, and grasp the timing for exiting!
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During Bitcoin's oscillating market, it can be quite tormenting as it's hard to directly welcome a bull market in a short time. At this time, do not be easily shaken out. If you are good at using leverage, you can increase more chips in a confirmed rebound market. The rest is to wait patiently. The market has just begun, and holding coins patiently is the right path. Don't blindly operate and switch positions; going back and forth will only reduce your chips.#比特币BTC 
