Many bloggers have been discussing recently that what we are seeing now is merely a rebound, not a reversal. Their understanding of "reversal" is a one-sided rise, firmly standing at 100,000 and constantly pushing up, completely not dropping but only rising is considered a reversal. I believe this understanding of reversal is narrow or even incorrect. Some people often predict that "if BTC can pull back to 84,000 for building positions, it would be great," which is extremely easy to miss for short-term traders and can easily induce short-sellers to hold a medium-term view expecting it to reach 84,000. However, as soon as it pulls back above 100,000 or even reaches new highs, the short-sellers who chased in at low levels will be very anxious.

I believe that every time BTC tests the support around 90,000, there's no need to keep talking about bearish views down to 80,000 or 70,000. BTC has tested 90,000 countless times without breaking down, and then it surged back to 96,000/97,000 in one go, stabilizing around the central point of 95,000. Breaking through 97,200-97,700 would be a reversal, as breaking through here would immediately push it to 98,200-98,800. Once the pressure at 98,200 is digested, it will attack 100,000 and above. Now, if it can't break through at once and pulls back, it will continue to surge again, because today the Congress certified Trump's victory, and on January 20th, Trump will officially take office. This period is a favorable expectation, rather than starting to push up only on January 20th. Once the favorable expectation lands on January 20th, it can basically be sold at highs.

The second half of the bull market, no matter how strong the upward trend is, there is no pure one-sided rise, because the higher the price, the larger the amount of capital needed to drive it. 100,000 is a significant node. For retail investors in this round of halving, prices above 100,000 have already become high in their psychological pricing, making it easy to sell off once it rises. With selling comes volatility and pullbacks, but the pullback range for retail investors is quite small. Only the main forces create large fluctuations, and the factors that lead the main forces to concentrate on selling are solely based on information, primarily the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and secondly, external factors like wars, pandemics, etc. Therefore, even without any guiding information, prices cannot just rise without falling. Thus, the reversal after the interest rate meeting on December 18th should not be understood as a one-sided rise, but rather as the end of the pullback, with bearish momentum turning into bullish momentum. Not reducing interest rates in January is bearish news, and this bearish sentiment has already been digested by the market; the pullback in the past two weeks is a manifestation of this bearish influence! Just focus on buying low and don’t keep trying to catch the top. There is no top now, and if you are not careful, it’s easy to get caught, and human nature is such that the more it rises, the more it will fall, constantly covering shorts. Then, with the favorable expectation of a rate cut in March, the short-sellers will definitely be anxious.