Yesterday, the US stock market was closed for New Year's Day, and the market has been relatively calm so far. Just as Crab Boss mentioned before, the current market is following the US stock market. So, with the US stock market closed for a day, the crypto circle was also quiet for a day. Tonight, the US stock market is expected to open normally. Crab Boss thinks there won’t be any major movements in the market, as the real holiday for Americans ends on January 6.
Starting next week, as many American institutions and whales will resume work, the market liquidity will gradually recover, and the expected market will welcome Trump's inauguration.
Currently, Bitcoin is still frequently fluctuating in the 92k-96k range. As for the direction of the market, we still need to observe the sentiment of the US stock market tonight. On January 10, the US unemployment rate will be announced. The expected value is not out yet, but the unemployment rate data will definitely be good. However, it’s hard to avoid whether there will be a risk aversion sentiment before the announcement. Personally, I think it won’t have much impact, as there are only 10 days left before Trump takes office.
Although the secondary market for altcoins is not strong, the memes on-chain are flourishing, giving birth to many projects with a market value of around 100 million. If you miss the first wave, you can study and look for previous cases, waiting for the project to correct and seize the second wave of rise. Remember not to bet too much, especially on AI-related MEMEs. After Musk changed his name back from 'Kekius Maximus' to 'Elon Musk' at midnight, the memes related to various concepts directly corrected. Such memes do not have sustainability, so everyone should be cautious and run fast if they participate.
A new market is setting sail!
BTC has gradually injected liquidity after two weeks of Christmas fluctuations and low trading volume.
1. Sentiment: The current market sentiment index is at 51, indicating a neutral sentiment. It has gradually recovered from the low point of 47 in the past few days. Neutral sentiment during a bull market adjustment is a rare atmosphere to calmly choose targets.
2. The altcoin season index is at 46. It is not a crazy altcoin season at the moment, but despite the general decline in the secondary market, the market capitalization of altcoins still maintains around 50, indicating a renewal of new and old altcoins.
3. On the funding side: The current Binance U leverage lending rate has increased by 2% compared to last week's 10%. The demand for U in the secondary market is starting to rise, and the market is warming up. Meanwhile, the negative premium of U both inside and outside the market is gradually expanding. The AHR999 indicator is at 1.79, waiting for the take-off zone. The bull market is entering the next phase, and staying in the market is currently the best choice.
The outflow from Grayscale after Monday's close has been counted in the previous data, and BlackRock has not continued to flow in for two consecutive days. The data from the day before yesterday was impressive from Fidelity. If it weren't for Fidelity flowing in over 9,500 coins, the last day would have ended with a net outflow for ETH.
So we can also see that although the price of ETH has been criticized by friends, the recent buying sentiment is not bad. ETH still lacks an opportunity to explode. This opportunity, apart from the overall rise in sentiment, either falls on RWA or the staking of ETH spot ETFs.
Which altcoins were most affected after Trump took office in January?
First of all, there’s DOGE. This month, the expectations for Dogecoin are quite high. The first is that Musk changed his profile picture and name a few days ago. Although Pepe didn’t rise much, it still benefited to some extent. Musk is expected to mention Dogecoin a lot in the future and hint at Dogecoin images. Secondly, the abbreviations of the new government departments in the US are all DOGE, and Musk will officially be appointed as a minister this month. It’s likely that Dogecoin will see a secondary hype at that time. Currently, the trading volume is large, liquidity is good, and the trend is quite stable.
Secondly, there’s pnut, the squirrel, which has two points. The first is that during Trump's election, it skyrocketed by 400% in just two days. Once Trump takes office, the heat will definitely rise again. Secondly, Coinbase is about to go live, and the announcement has already released the roadmap, but it has been delayed for a while, probably because it has been adjusting for some time. Coinbase is likely selecting a good timing. Pnut is expected to see a second wave of explosive market performance.
There’s also XRP, which helped Trump during the election. After he was elected, XRP rose to $2.9, reaching a three-year high. XRP mainly focuses on payment functions. If Trump promotes it as a means of crypto payment after taking office, the price may soar again.
There are also some related to Trump's holdings, such as Aave, Ondo, and Link.
Additionally, the 16 billion in new funds from FTX compensation will gradually flow into the crypto market after January 3, which is a positive news in the short term.
The larger market cycle has not ended; it is just the small cycle adjustment that lacks liquidity. There is neither a continuous upward trend nor a continuous downward trend.
When there are many negative expectations, the market will weaken; conversely, when there are many positive expectations, the market will start to strengthen.
Now the market is looking forward to Trump fulfilling his promises after taking office, so I am relatively optimistic about the market in the first quarter of next year.
If Trump starts fulfilling his promises as soon as he takes office in 2025, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum may experience a surge.
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