Advisor talks about hot topics:
The New Year has arrived, wishing everyone a Happy New Year! Although everyone likes to make New Year wishes in the moments shared, the advisor reminds you not to treat these moments as a wishing pool, otherwise you may make the same wish again next year, resulting in 'wishing every year and being disappointed every year.'
Back to the point, 2024 is full of challenges and opportunities for the cryptocurrency market. From the sprint to the peak to the pullback adjustment, market fluctuations are magnificent. The yearly line ended below 100k, and although the result is a pin bar, it does not mean that it stops here.
A pin bar indicates that the market may experience a wave of downward liquidity plunder and replenishment. From the yearly line perspective, the advisor personally hopes it can recover to around 70k, but this is just an expectation; how it develops still depends on the market conditions. Currently, it is still temporarily focused on the area near 85k, maintaining cautious optimism.
Looking at the monthly line again, the December bearish close can be considered a good result. As the advisor said earlier, the market for Bitcoin is a fluctuating pattern. The performance in December was as expected, showing a wave of complex fluctuations.
The bearish close of the monthly line formed the high and low points for December, and also created a liquidity gap, with prices between 90k and 73.7k. It can be expected that the December low will likely be plundered, and after the plunder, the next step for the market will depend on how much liquidity can be obtained. Therefore, the advisor personally still favors the support near 85k, and the later target is naturally to continue moving towards new highs; thus, the advisor sees a rhythm of falling first and rising later.
In the short term, the recent Bitcoin price may fluctuate around 95k, and the fluctuation range may even increase. However, from the overall trend perspective, the trend has not changed. The recent trading volume and price fluctuations have made many retail investors hold a pessimistic view of the market in early 2025.
The main reason is that liquidity is constrained by Federal Reserve policy, and the dollar price is currently at high points for 2023 and 2024, even approaching the 2022 highs. So, if the Federal Reserve does not change its stance, the market momentum in the short term will still come more from market sentiment.
The biggest source of market sentiment, without a doubt, is the U.S. election. Comparing the election to the first wave of the market, the transition is the second wave, and the actions to fulfill commitments to the cryptocurrency industry are the third wave.
Currently, it is just at the ending point of the first wave. It’s good enough to maintain stability in sentiment, unless there is new positive information; otherwise, fluctuations may be the most probable outcome. Starting next week, there will only be two weeks left until the transition, and it is expected to see some market movements one after another.
As for the current Bitcoin, the turnover rate is still high, and early profit-takers have begun to reduce their holdings in recent days. However, from the emotional perspective, the overall market is still stable, with no signs of panic.
Support level 95k remains an important support point, but a large amount of chips has begun to accumulate near 93.8k, so the adjustment of support levels may not be seen until next week.
My personal view is that if the market rises well before next Monday, I might consider selling Bitcoin at 95k, and then wait to buy on the dip. If the market continues to decline, then 89k may be my third mid-term buying opportunity.
However, the price of 89k may not be reached in the short term; in any case, we are currently in a consolidation phase. The future direction is still full of variables, and no one can predict it. But as the ancients said, heroes emerge in chaotic times.
In such a complex and volatile market, those who can remain calm amidst the changing winds will surely be the ones who laugh last. Everyone should wait patiently, cherish the journey, and the opportunities in 2025 will always belong to those who are prepared.
Advisor looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 94200
Second resistance level: 95300
Support level reference:
First support level: 93100
Second support level: 92200
Today’s suggestion:
In the short term, Bitcoin lacks further factors to push upward, so it is worth paying attention to whether a slow bottoming will form, and on this basis, look for ultra-short-term rebound opportunities. The current price is in the trading range of 93~94K, and if it continues to maintain this range, a rebound viewpoint can be held.
If the first resistance level is broken, it is necessary to observe whether the price can stabilize above 94K and the 120-day moving average. If so, it can try ultra-short-term rebound operations.
Currently in the trading range and forming a bottom, it is expected to break through the resistance. If it rebounds upwards, it may continue to rise. However, due to the strong resistance in the trading range, it is recommended to gradually break through the resistance before considering bullish operations.
After the breakout, it is in a fluctuating range, observing whether there are signs of bottoming, and maintaining a rebound viewpoint. In addition, the U.S. stock market is closed tonight, so there may be smaller fluctuations. It is recommended to maintain operations within the fluctuation range, focusing on entry opportunities at the lower edge of the box.
1.1 Advisor's segment pre-burying:
Bullish entry reference: Lightly buy near 93100. If it retraces to the 92200-91500 range, buy directly. Target: 94200-95300
Short-selling entry reference: not recommended