Top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio released his outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025. After a long wait following Trump's victory in the presidential election two months ago, we are finally entering 2025. The current market prices are significantly higher than they were not long ago, and there is hope for a world more supportive of cryptocurrency led by the United States. Although we experienced a local peak in December, I believe the bull market will continue to develop in a similar manner, with some assets performing excellently while others lag behind. For the upcoming quarter, I believe the asset that will benefit the most is Ethereum (ETH). Here are three reasons supporting this view:
1. Price Comparison and Market Psychology According to the '10 IQ Price Fractal' theory, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 40% from its previous all-time high, while Ethereum (ETH) is still about 30% below its previous all-time high. Although this alone does not mean much, both assets have launched ETF products, making ETH appear 'cheaper' than BTC to the average investor, and thus considered to have greater upside potential.
2. Trump's Pro-Crypto Policy The pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration is most favorable to assets with utility and smart contract functionality. We have already seen some decentralized finance (DeFi) assets (such as AAVE and UNI) perform excellently under this expectation, but the biggest beneficiary among the underlying assets is undoubtedly Ethereum. Trump's World Liberty Financial (WLFI) project has not conducted any activities on Solana but has consistently chosen Ethereum-related assets. I believe this trend will continue.
3. Development of the Base Ecosystem Among all Layer 2 solutions on Ethereum, Base is undoubtedly the star chain this year. With Coinbase's native distribution channels and the organic development of the AI agent metaverse led by 'Virtuals', Base offers a value proposition very similar to Solana and can undoubtedly be seen as a competitor. Since Base itself does not have its own token, this naturally creates demand for ETH as the underlying asset and brings positive capital inflows as ecosystem activities increase.
I expect ETH to break $4,000 in January and possibly approach its all-time high within the first quarter. I believe three areas will continue to perform well: AI agents; tokens with utility that generate fees; potential ETF-related tokens. I would not categorize these views as 'contrarian', but I also do not think now is the time to take a strong contrarian position. We will have time later for contrarian moves, but now is not the time. Regarding the view on the cycle top: I suspect most of 2025 will resemble 2023 or 2024, where certain areas will experience re-ratings and rises, followed by significant PvP (player versus player) turbulence. Ultimately, one of these rises will become the top of the global cycle, but I believe we are still far from that point.