BTC has been consolidating horizontally these past few days, with shrinking volume and a very dull performance. However, overall institutional predictions for the market moving upward next year remain positive. After the surge in the last two months, the market still needs to solidify. So what might the market direction be moving forward? Stay tuned for the analysis, noting that this video is merely an individual review and does not constitute investment advice.
From a news perspective, Tether's CEO clarified that USD transactions in Europe will not be deemed illegal. Stablecoin service providers have a transition period of 6-18 months to comply with MiCA regulations. Institutions expect that the inauguration of the new president on January 20 next year may bring some surprises to the market, with expectations that he will issue at least 25 executive orders on his first day in office, covering a range of issues from immigration to energy and monetary policy. In December, the meme market cap fell significantly from $120.14 billion at the beginning of the month to $98.78 billion, a decrease of about 14.61%. Analysis shows that the momentum of SoL has weakened over the monthly time frame, with its market cap change rate now below that of BTC and ETH.
First, the conclusion, followed by technical analysis:
Regarding BTC: Predictions suggest fluctuations in the range of 93,000-97,000, with an overall horizontal consolidation seeking a breakout in direction. If there are no negative developments, the probability of an upward fluctuation will be higher. At this time, it's best not to get overly excited and buy in fully; if you can't resist, you might consider a small amount of dollar-cost averaging, at least to have some reserve in case of a further 15% drop.
Regarding BNB: Predictions suggest consolidation in the range of 680-720. The price movement over the past 24 hours has weakened significantly compared to yesterday, which may relate to the halfway point of the current airdrop, as yesterday's rise was substantial, leading some holders to take partial profits.
Regarding ETH: Expected fluctuations around 3200-3600, also in horizontal consolidation waiting for opportunities. However, if BTC consolidates, it does not mean that ETH won't find its own direction, especially with recent significant institutional accumulation.
Additionally, from a news perspective, the momentum of SoL has been weakening recently, which should be noted.
Next is technical analysis:
1. From the BTC K-line perspective, the trading volume over the last 6 four-hour bars has been decreasing, consolidating around 95,000. From the overall K-line trend, it is expected to create a new trend within a small range to break the current stagnation, with both bulls and bears competing. If there are no significant negative news, the consolidation is likely to adjust upward.
2. Greed and Fear Index Observation: Currently at 73, which indicates greed, up +1 from yesterday, within the normal range of a bull market.
3. BTC perpetual contract funding rate is 0.0083%, ETH is 0.0088%. BTC has rebounded compared to yesterday and is expected to return to normal levels soon. ETH is close to yesterday's level, and the short selling energy is average.
4. Observing the maximum pain point of options for the next three months: In the next two days, it's expected to be between 95,000 and 96,000, unchanged from yesterday, with nominal amounts being low and having minimal impact on prices. However, this at least indicates that there is one less interfering factor at the current price.
5. Spot ETFs. The US stock market is closed on Saturday and will resume trading on Monday.
6. According to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), BTC is currently strong on a weekly basis, maintaining neutrality over 24 hours. ETH is neutral on a weekly basis and also neutral over 24 hours, with selling pressure considered normal.
7. From the top escape index, it is currently in the lower-middle area, which also indicates that the current position is not too high.
8. The BTC holding index has risen to 1.35; theoretically, below 1.2 is preferable. However, in a bull market, it is difficult to drop significantly. If you are holding coins, you could buy a little bit and keep some in reserve in case it drops below 1.2 to average your cost, avoiding a complete miss.
In summary, mainstream horizontal consolidation tests everyone's patience. The takeaway is to avoid impulsive trading; don't buy randomly into altcoins just because you see them rising. Trading doesn't have to be done every day; you should adhere to your principles and seize opportunities when they arise for better gains. Maintain a balance between not being fully invested and not being completely out of the market; there's no need to feel anxious every day.