History cannot repeat itself, but it is always remarkably similar. Looking back at the bull markets in 2017 and 2021, each bull-bear cycle was accompanied by the timing of Bitcoin halving. According to this pattern, 2025 will be a bull market, and 2026 will enter a bear market. But will ETFs change the cycle, and will the bull market come early? As of now, we have not seen that; only when Ethereum also breaks through its historical high of 4800, and Bitcoin stabilizes at 70,000 dollars, while satisfying these two conditions, can we confirm that the bull market has begun. Once the bull market is confirmed, please remember not to change positions. Why not switch back and forth according to market conditions? Firstly, most people's operations really cannot keep up, don't doubt it; secondly, for beginners, as long as the right assets are chosen, not changing positions is already great wisdom.