O mundo monetário de ontem era como passar por uma pequena montanha-russa!
O Bitcoin (BTC) oscilou ligeiramente. Os líderes do mercado tentaram puxar o preço para trás, mas obviamente não conseguiram. Isso também mostra que todos estão bastante satisfeitos com o preço atual!
De acordo com a análise dos dados, o próximo mercado pode fazer uma pausa temporária, mas não se preocupe! No longo prazo, o “trem” em ascensão ainda anda de forma constante nos trilhos.
Para quem detém a moeda por muito tempo, não seja impulsivo em vender a descoberto devido às flutuações de curto prazo. É uma escolha mais sábia manter os ativos em suas mãos e vendê-los no próximo ano!
Aqui, gostaria de enfatizar novamente um princípio comercial crucial:
When market prices fall, we should decisively buy; when prices rise, we should remain patient and not rush to sell.
This strategy can help us maintain calm amidst market fluctuations, remaining as stable as Mount Tai. Trading is never a one-step process; it requires us to avoid impulsiveness, keep a clear mind, formulate reasonable plans, and execute steadily. After all, our goal is long-term stable returns, not blindly chasing short-term fluctuations.
Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is oscillating within the $93,000 to $98,000 range. Since last night, ETFs and bulls have been supporting the price to prevent it from dropping, and it may find a new breakout direction within this range.
Ethereum (ETH) is expected to fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,700, and there have been many positive news stories recently, with ETF institutions' 'buy, buy, buy' providing strong support for ETH, making its current position very attractive.
Next, let's delve into several key elements of the current market:
1. The U.S. capital drives the bull market – this is already evident, as the core momentum of this bull market comes from the strong intervention of U.S. capital.
2. The impact of U.S. holidays on the market – Currently, it is the U.S. holiday period (from Christmas to New Year), and many investors may choose to take a break, which has led to a noticeable decline in market activity and gradually decreasing trading volume.
3. Interpretation of adjustment intensity – Therefore, it can be speculated that the current market liquidity is relatively insufficient, especially during the weekend. We can even observe some interesting phenomena, such as negative premiums appearing between Bitcoin spot and BN on CB, further validating the tightness of market liquidity.
Regarding today's Bitcoin market, from a technical analysis perspective, we see a typical M-shaped pattern in the short term.
It is important to note that this pattern should not be used alone as the basis for going long or short. Instead, we should combine it with the current overall market environment, identifying key support and resistance levels to formulate more precise trading strategies. As shown in the figure below:
Here is a systematic operational strategy framework to help you confidently navigate a volatile market:
1. Judging the overall trend:
First, clarify the current stage of the market – is it rising, oscillating, or falling? Understanding the market's general direction is the first step to success.
2. Identifying key positions:
After clarifying the trend, focus on the key support and resistance levels on the chart, as these points often serve as decision-making indicators, helping us determine the timing for entering and exiting the market.
3. Develop a trading plan:
Based on support and resistance levels, formulate a clear trading strategy, determine the entry direction, and set reasonable take-profit and stop-loss levels. Special reminder, the take-profit points should be flexibly adjusted according to market trends to respond to dynamic changes.
A few days ago, we saw that Bitcoin's daily MA30 moving average was breached and has stabilized, indicating that the originally upward triangular pattern based on MA30 has been broken, and the market may shift from rising to oscillating.
In yesterday's analysis, it was mentioned that Bitcoin is consolidating within an oscillating range, which is actually a positive signal, as it provides the possibility for the market to adjust horizontally or build a bottom.
Further observation reveals that on the third day of the downward trend, the market exhibited a 'pin bar' pattern, while the daily MA60 moving average was precisely around $88,000.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin has risen to $91,726 and is stabilizing above $92,000. As the large moving averages gradually converge towards the current price, this provides strong support for the market. The support from these large moving averages is a key indicator for assessing market strength.
When discussing the relationship between market adjustments and negative news, we often find it difficult to clearly define cause and effect, so this point is not crucial. What matters is how we make reasonable analyses and responses based on the existing situation.
In the face of the current complex market situation, we need to clearly answer several core questions:
1. Large cycle positioning:
The primary task is to accurately determine the stage of the large cycle the market is in – is it a bull market, bear market, or oscillating market? This judgment will directly determine our strategic direction and lay the foundation for subsequent trading decisions.
2. Interpretation of adjustment intensity:
If the market experiences a strong rise followed by indicators being overbought or diverging, then the subsequent adjustment intensity will become a key for us to assess market strength. Adjustments in strong markets are often brief and mild, while in weak markets, pullbacks may be more severe and prolonged.
3. Assessing market sentiment:
Currently, there is a divergence in performance between Bitcoin and altcoins, and Bitcoin is still undergoing structural adjustments. Therefore, closely monitoring changes in market sentiment is crucial. By analyzing statements from major platforms (like Certain An, Certain Te, etc.) and participant behaviors, we can gain insights into the direction of market sentiment, providing a more accurate basis for decision-making.
In this market environment, caution must be exercised when employing left-side trading strategies to bottom out, ensuring reasonable control of position size to respond to potential market fluctuations at any time.
Let's take another look at the altcoin aspect:
Today, the altcoin market has seen a strong rebound, with the AI agent sector performing particularly well! Popular coins like Virtual, AI16z, and ELIZA have surged over 20%, becoming the market's focus!
Currently, the altcoin market is showing a trend of 'the strong getting stronger!' Although Bitcoin has experienced some pullbacks recently, AI projects such as Virtual, AIXBT, Game, AI16z, and ELIZA have hardly been affected, demonstrating that AI application projects have gained high recognition in the market and attracted significant capital attention.
The current AI agent sector is somewhat reminiscent of the DeFi Summer of yesteryear, brimming with vitality and unlimited potential. Looking ahead, this sector is expected to experience a breakout next year, with innovative ways of combining AI and blockchain continuously emerging, attracting more market participants and capital inflow.
Moreover, Ethereum remains a long-term holding worth considering, as not only has it performed well in the first quarter, but it also shows strong growth potential in the historical ups and downs over the next 1 to 3 months, making it a core asset worth ongoing attention.
From historical data, apart from the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, almost all first quarters in other years achieved considerable returns.
Although January's performance has been somewhat irregular, historically there has only been a decline at the end of January, but February and March usually welcome a definitive upward trend. At this time, hold your bullets, wait patiently, and absolutely do not give up before dawn!
Additionally, it is worth noting that Trump will officially take office as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, and sectors related to the new government are likely to see a wave of speculative opportunities before his inauguration.
I remind everyone in advance that positioning in relevant tokens of the new government sector will be a wise choice, and their potential should not be underestimated!
Today, let's delve into why I emphasize following Grayscale's positioning, as it absolutely leads to profits!
Take some time to review the coins that Grayscale has recently bottomed out, as their appreciation over the past week and month has been quite remarkable. Specifically:
LINK: In the past month, Grayscale successfully bottomed out 50,866 coins!
FIL: In the past month, Grayscale has cumulatively bottomed out 106,686 coins!
SOL: In the past month, Grayscale has increased its position by 4,713 coins!
BCH: In the past month, Grayscale bottomed out 7,579 coins!
LTC: In the past month, Grayscale entered with 33,110 coins!
ZEN: In the past month, Grayscale made a significant purchase of 304,031 coins!
Of course, XLM has been offloading recently, and I won't record it for now, but it is evident that Grayscale's positioning is insightful, as strategically acquired coins are continuously appreciating, and following its lead is a sure profit!
Although the secondary market has been performing poorly recently, especially with altcoins generally under pressure, on-chain, particularly in the AI Agent field, the activity remains explosive!
Leading projects like Virtual have their FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) still holding steady at $3.1 billion, while Fartcoin and AI16z's market values are also stable at the billion-dollar level, seemingly unaffected by the market's pullback.
Emerging blue-chip projects are also eye-catching, especially the Game projects, whose market value is gradually being widely recognized.
In the past, Game was often compared to AI Agent projects like aixbt and luna, but now it has begun to transform, clearly identifying AI16z as its benchmark.
In the past few days, Game has experienced a shocking 3x surge, with its market value nearing aixbt, indicating that its future development space far exceeds expectations.
Moreover, new stars in the sector are emerging, with the Spore project successfully breeding its third generation product thanks to its AI autonomous reproduction capabilities, demonstrating unlimited potential.
I firmly believe that the AI Agent era will become a lasting and far-reaching era, potentially even surpassing the current cycle of the crypto bull market!
Based on this judgment, I expect that at least three or more AI Agent projects' market values will break through the $10 billion mark in the future, becoming the next giants of the crypto market!
