Yesterday's crypto market was like a small roller coaster; BTC just shook a bit, and those market makers really wanted to pull the price back but failed, indicating that everyone is quite satisfied with this price! Remember, when the price is low, we buy; when it's high, we wait; don't rush to sell everything.
This way, you won't be afraid of rises or falls, and your mindset will be as steady as a mountain! In trading, don't be too anxious, and don't rush into action out of excitement; you need a plan and take it slow. After all, we're playing for the long term, not just focusing on small fluctuations daily.
1. As we all know, the main driving force behind this bull market is American capital;
2. Currently, the Americans are still in a holiday state (Christmas → New Year);
3. Therefore, it can be seen that current liquidity is very insufficient, especially on weekends. Observation point: The negative premium exists between CB's BTC spot and BN.
Today's Bitcoin analysis: A relatively typical pattern has appeared in the short term: the M-top. I have mentioned before that this pattern is not suitable for opening long or short positions alone; it needs to be combined with the current overall market state and find key positions within the pattern to act, as shown in the figure.
The operational strategy can generally be followed in the steps below:
1. Judge the overall trend (upward, sideways, downward);
2. Find key positions (upper and lower edges) in the chart pattern based on the overall trend.
3. Open a position and set stop-loss and take-profit (take-profit can be adjusted).
A few days ago, I mentioned that the daily MA30 moving average was broken and flattened, indicating that the daily MA30 ascending triangle has been damaged, and the short to medium-term has actually shifted from an upward trend to consolidation. Yesterday I said it's a good thing that Bitcoin is maintaining consolidation here, as it increases the probability of horizontal adjustment or bottom formation.
We can see that when the third day of the decline started, the price of the daily MA60 moving average was 88,000 USD, and now it is 91,726 USD. If the K-line can maintain horizontal oscillation above 92,000 USD, the larger moving averages will converge towards the K-line, and larger moving averages often have a support effect, which is one method for judging market strength.
Is it necessary to adjust, which led to the release of negative news? Or was it adjusted based on negative news? It doesn't matter.
1. What cycle is the current macro cycle in?
2. If it has risen too much, with multiple indicators showing overbought or divergence, does this adjustment strength represent strength or weakness?
3. How is the current sentiment in the crypto market? (Sentiment distribution centers like some An, some Te)
Due to the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoin markets, Bitcoin is still in an adjustment phase structurally; therefore, current bottom-fishing is a left-side strategy, and it's important to control the position size.
Ethereum is truly worth holding for a long time; this is Ethereum's historical rise and fall in the first quarter and 1, 2, and 3 months.
It can be seen that aside from the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, the first quarter during other times has had very considerable gains. Ethereum's January pattern is not very obvious, and the historical decline also happened to be the final drop in January, with a certain market trend in the months of February and March. Hold your bullets; don't fall before dawn.
And Trump will officially take office as the 47th president of the United States on January 20, 2025. The new government sector should experience a wave of speculation before taking office, and I'm telling you in advance to pay attention to the relevant tokens in the new government sector!
Today, let's talk again about why I say following Grayscale's layout can yield profits.
Let's take some time to summarize the coins that Grayscale has recently bottom-fished, which have appreciated in the last 7 days and one month as follows:
Link recently bottom-fished 50,866 coins.
Fil recently bottom-fished 106,686 coins.
Sol recently bottom-fished 4,713 coins.
Bch recently bottom-fished 7,579 coins.
Ltc recently bottom-fished 33,110 coins.
Zen recently bottom-fished 304,031 coins.
Xlm has been offloading in the past week, so I won't record it.
Lastly, to say: Although the altcoins in the secondary market have not performed well except for platform coins in the past few days, on-chain, especially AI agents, are still thriving. The top few virtuals still maintain a FDV of 3.1 billion, and fartcoin and ai16z also have a market cap in the billions, completely unaffected by the market correction.
Several newly emerged blue chips, game has been held for value discovery, previously benchmarked against agents like aixbt and luna, but now game has directly switched tracks to benchmark against ai16z, having surged 3x in the past few days, with its market cap nearing aixbt. It feels like the ceiling is even higher going forward.
Newcomers in the sector are emerging one after another, with projects like spore, which is AI autonomous reproduction, already producing its third generation.
I personally believe that the AI agent era will last a long time, possibly even longer than the duration of this crypto bull market, which is also why I think there will be at least three AI agents with a market cap of 10 billion in this round.
